Let's take a look at the best NFL free picks for week 6 of the 2021 NFL season.
Every week our NFL Betting system gives us data-driven picks that take the emotion out of picking our winners. We use raw stats (like Yards per pass attempt) and NFL rankings to determine where the "value" is.
If you are new to our betting system, be sure to check out our NFL Picks and matchup page. Here you will find the latest NFL matchups, and our favorite plays...identified through money bags!
Now, on to the week 7 betting system picks:
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans OVER 43.5
Probably our favorite play of the day. The public is heavy on the Texans being terrible. They don't have a solid QB, so they will struggle to score points. This is not the case...
On the season, Houston has games that have gone over 40 points 4 out of 5 games. After they play the Colts, it will be 5 of 6.
The Colts have looked like a subpar offensive team, but they will get to 27 points in this one. And their defensive will give up 21+
Bonus play - we also like Texans +10 on the road.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks OVER 43
We have been red hot on the Steelers. After nailing their spread last week, now we like them to hit the OVER in their Seahawks matchup.
Even with Geno Smith at QB, expect both these teams to move the football. Seattle leads the league in yards per pass attempt. Expect a dropoff without Russel, but the Hawks will still drop 24+.
On the defensive side, both of these teams are in the bottom half of the league. There should be plenty of offense in this one to breach the 43 point OVER.
Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills UNDER 53.5
As with many primetime matchups, the public leans heavily on the over. This is a general rule of betting the NFL. In primetime games, the average Joe wants to see points. They want to have "action" on the game...so out of pure enjoyment, they bet the over...
Well, as seasoned betting veterans, we always fade this action. As a rule of thumb - always lean UNDER in primetime NFL action.
This game is no different. The Bills are currently a team many on TV "experts" are talking about. Their offense success has been widely publicized. Because of this...we find value in going against this sentiment. Take the UNDER with confidence in this Monday night matchup.