Let's take a look at the best NFL free picks for week 6 of the 2021 NFL season.

Every week our [NFL Betting system](/betting-system) gives us data-driven picks that take the emotion out of picking our winners. We use raw stats (like Yards per pass attempt) and NFL rankings to determine where the "value" is.

If you are new to our betting system, be sure to check out our [NFL Picks and matchup page](/betting-system/matchups/nfl). Here you will find the latest NFL matchups, and our favorite plays...identified through money bags!

Now, on to the week 7 betting system picks:

## Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans OVER 43.5

Probably our favorite play of the day. The public is heavy on the Texans being terrible. They don't have a solid QB, so they will struggle to score points. This is not the case...

On the season, Houston has games that have gone over 40 points 4 out of 5 games. After they play the Colts, it will be 5 of 6.

The Colts have looked like a subpar offensive team, but they will get to 27 points in this one. And their defensive will give up 21+

Bonus play - we also like Texans +10 on the road.

## Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks OVER 43

We have been red hot on the Steelers. After nailing their spread last week, now we like them to hit the OVER in their Seahawks matchup.

Even with Geno Smith at QB, expect both these teams to move the football. Seattle leads the league in yards per pass attempt. Expect a dropoff without Russel, but the Hawks will still drop 24+.

On the defensive side, both of these teams are in the bottom half of the league. There should be plenty of offense in this one to breach the 43 point OVER.

## Tennessee Titans vs Buffalo Bills UNDER 53.5

As with many primetime matchups, the public leans heavily on the over. This is a general rule of betting the NFL. In primetime games, the average Joe wants to see points. They want to have "action" on the game...so out of pure enjoyment, they bet the over...

Well, as seasoned betting veterans, we always fade this action. As a rule of thumb - always lean UNDER in primetime NFL action.

This game is no different. The Bills are currently a team many on TV "experts" are talking about. Their offense success has been widely publicized. Because of this...we find value in going against this sentiment. Take the UNDER with confidence in this Monday night matchup.




Betting System Free NFL Picks, Week 6 of 2021

Headed into College Football week 7, our NEW proprietary [sports betting system](/betting-system) is now showing us value and opportunity in the College Football world!

We are very excited to post our first picks for the college football betting week. Our users can now view these matchups and free picks on-demand at our [College Football free picks and matchup page](/betting-system/matchups/cfb).

Here are our favorite plays for the weekend. Feel free to reach out with any questions or comments on our betting advice and free picks.

### North Texas vs Marshall (Friday Night) UNDER

North Texas vs Marshall total is looking a little on the juice side. As usual for these Friday night college football games, the betting public traditionally leans towards a high-scoring affair.

Our betting system shows that there is value in taking the UNDER 66 in this matchup. There will be points on the board, but in the end - under bettors will be cashing in.

### South Florida vs Tulsa OVER

What you have here is a case of 2 very bad defenses. The key stat we watch for is "Yards per pass attempt allowed". In this stat category, but teams are...not good.

USF currently ranks 123rd (out of 130 teams). Tusla ranks 88th.

Expect the scoreboard to light up in this football game...possibly turned track meet.

### Missouri vs Texas A&M (#21) UNDER

This just in - Texas A&M is a good team this season. They currently have one of the best defenses in the country, ranking 19th in opponents yards per play allowed. This is very good.

With the Aggies at home, expect them to control the tempo of this matchup. We expect this total to be in the 45-55 range...so safely bet the UNDER with confidence.

That will do it for our Week 7 College football free picks. Be sure to check our College Football matchup and free picks page. You can always use this for reference against your handicapping. Good luck! 💰

College Football Picks Free Picks, Week 7 of 2021

For Thursday Night's feature matchup...we find the out-of-division matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Cincinnati Bengals.

Let's do some analysis on this matchup and try to determine if there are any good bets out there. We are always looking for betting value. Can any be found in this matchup? Let's take a look...

### Jaguars vs Bengals Current Line and Spread

Opening Spread: CIN -4.5  
Current Spread: CIN -7.5  
Current Over/Unders: 46

### Key Jags vs Bengals stats

If you've been with us a long time (or have read our NFL betting system book) you know that yards per pass attempt are a key statistic that we use in our game/betting analysis.

Short summary - this stat tells us all we need to know. Yards per pass attempt tells us an offense's efficiency. Yards per pass attempt allowed tells us about a team's defensive efficiency. Let's take a look at how these teams stack up against each other:

**Yards per pass attempt (offense):**

Jaguars: 5.7 (ranked 30th in the league)   
Bengals: 8.5 (ranked 8th)

**Yard per pass attempt allowed (defense)**

Jaguars: 9.0 (ranked 30th)  
Bengals: 5.4 (ranked 4th)

Whoa. This is what we call a lop-sided statistical affair. Clearly, we can see that Cinncinati is the much stronger opponent, especially using our key yards per pass attempt statistic.

### Jaguars vs Bengals in the betting system

Let's take a look at the betting system outputs. When we compare tonight's matchup, we get the following results:

Jaguars: 4 wins (grade D)  
Bengals: 10 wins (grade B-)

When we match these teams against each other, our key proprietary algorithm tells us the line should be:

Bengals (as a home team) -12.5

With us setting the line, we can see that Bengals should be a BIGGER favorite. We usually shy away from betting favorites. But let's keep this in mind...

### Jaguars vs Bengals Free NFL pick

Taking all the above into consideration, the Bengals are the better spread play in tonight's match. There is a caveat though. With our betting philosophy, we rarely put our money on favorites. Much less favorites that are laying more than 7 points.

Our recommendation for tonight:

If you want to play the spread - **Small bet on Bengals -7.5**

Safer bet - **Bengals over 27.5** - you can get this [-105 on Bovada right now](/go/bovada-nfl-lines)

Jaguars vs Bengals Thursday Night Free NFL Pick 2021

Welcome to Thursday Night football! Tonight we see the matchup of the Carolina Panthers (2-0) at the Houston Texans (1-1). Here will give your betting analysis and where the best place to invest your money.

### Matchup Details:

- Open: O/U 43.5   CAR -4.5
- Current: O/U 43   CAR -8
- Betting consensus: 52% CAR -8

As we can see from the betting action and line movement, there has been heavy money flow on the Carolina Panthers. We are seeing this with the announcement that Tyrod Taylor won't be available for this matchup...

### Rookie starting QB

Rookie David Mills will start tonight's game. It's his first NFL start. First NFL starts can be rocky. This is why we are seeing the public jump heavy on the favored Panthers. Should we do the same? Let's take a deeper look...

The Houston Coaching staff has stated that Mills has shown many [signs of improvement since his 2 preseason starts](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/texans/2021/09/23/davis-mills-houston-texans-starting-quarterback/5812059001/). I would expect tonight's gameplan to be run-heavy and keep the ball out of the Panthers offense's hands. Mark Ingram / Philip Lindsey combo should see 30+ touches between them. That's a good thing.

### Road teams disadvantage in TNF

It's no secret that playing on the road on Thursday night (on a short week) is not fun or easy. Road teams have a disadvantage. Historically, [home favorites have a big advantage against the spread (ATS)](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/texans/2021/09/23/davis-mills-houston-texans-starting-quarterback/5812059001/). I would lean towards the home team in the matchup too...especially getting +8 or more points.

*Note - this is Carolina's first road game of the season. They have played well at home...but this will be their first test on the road, in a hostile environment.

Another point here - this is a road, out of conference game for the Panthers. They are currently 2-0. It's a tendency here for a team to "not get up" (no have extra motivation) for a non-conference road game vs a "bad" team on paper.

Another great trend...Rookie QBs are 5-1 in Thursday Night football debuts...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Davis Mills gets his first career NFL start tonight as the Texans take on the Panthers.<br><br>Since 2016, quarterbacks making their first career start on Thursday night own a 5-1 record. <a href="https://t.co/fAUU6uh6bV">pic.twitter.com/fAUU6uh6bV</a></p>&mdash; ESPN Stats &amp; Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1441009455416561670?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 23, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

### Betting system tells us...

Now, let's run this matchup through our proprietary betting system. We are setting HOU as a 6 win team (C- grade). Carolina at 8 wins (C grade). With these power rankings, we estimate the line to be HOU -5.5. If we lean towards taking Houston and the points...we are getting some value there.

### Panthers vs Texans free pick summary

I get it. It's difficult to place your hard-earned money on a rookie QB making his first NFL start. But if your going to play the spread in this game...I would lean towards the underdog Texans. Houston has a strong enough running game they can lean on. Plus, Thursday Night road teams have historically struggled. That will play into Texans bettors' hands.

Don't get a 2nd mortgage for this one. Place a 1 unit (small) wager on the underdog Texans and you will be getting value on your investment.

Free pick: **Houston Texans +8.5**

**Alternative in-game play** - Wait to see if Carolina jumps out to an early 7-10 point lead. Try to get the Texans +10.5 or more.

Panthers vs Texans Thursday Night Football, Free NFL Pick 2021

Two divisional foes matchup for Week 2 Monday night football showdown. 

In this post, we will handicap the game and analyze who the best bet is in tonight's primetime match.

## Game Details

[Detriot Lions at Green Bay Packers](https://www.nfl.com/games/lions-at-packers-2021-reg-2) <br />
Opening Spread: GB -10 <br />
Current Spread: GB -12.5 <br />
Over/Under 49 <br />

## Packers vs Lions Free Pick analysis

As you can see from the spread movement above (opened GB -10, now GB -12.5), serious public money has been placed on the Green Bay Packers to cover the spread. When we see this type of one-sided money flow (from the public)...we "fade" this action, or bet against it. We always lean to bet against the public flow. This is a "contrarian approach" to betting and has proven successful over my history of gambling.

Next, we look to our power rankings to try to determine if there is any "value" in this current spread. Looking at our [Week 2 Betting NFL Power Rankings](https://onlinewagerreview.com/blog/6yqk0Y9/week-2-power-rankings--betting-system--nfl-2021), we see how we graded these teams:

- DET 5 wins
- GB 9 wins

These win estimates allow us to apply the secret formula of our betting system. We match these 2 teams up and determine "our line" should be as follows:

DET +9
GB -9

As you can see, based on our betting system calculations, the Detroit Lions should only be a 9 point underdog.

What does this mean for the bettors? 

Simple - if we **take DET +12.5 we are getting 2.5 points in value** (12.5 actual line - 9 our line).

## Key Betting Trends?

We also like to check the betting trends for each matchup. Some carry more weight than others...especially if the teams are in the same conference and matchup 2 times per year. For this matchup, we find a few interesting ones:

- Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings
- Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings

## Lions vs Green Bay Free Monday Night Pick

For tonight's matchup, we again see value in the underdog. The Lions might be overmatch talent-wise, but this Monday night matchup between divisional foes might be a tighter outcome than the spread suggests. If you are looking to play the spread on this game...go against the public and go with the current trends. Take the underdog with medium confidence. Good luck

Free pick: **Detroit +12.5**

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Monday Night Free NFL Pick, 2021

If you are familiar with our NFL betting system, power rankings are a core component of how we set our lines and pick our winners.

Every Wednesday of the NFL season, we will post our official OnlineWagerReview NFL power rankings. As we review the week's matchups, these rankings will be used to calculate which teams we see "value". The games where we see the most value...these are our top bets of the week.

### Week 2 NFL Power Rankings:

<table class="ui table" style="width: 400px">
<thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Team</th><th>Week 2</th></tr></thead><tbody>
 <tr><td>Kansas City Chiefs</td><td>12</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td><td>11</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Arizona Cardinals</td><td>10</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Buffalo Bills</td><td>10</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Dallas Cowboys</td><td>10</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Los Angeles Rams</td><td>10</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Philadelphia Eagles</td><td>10</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Pittsburgh Steelers</td><td>10</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Baltimore Ravens</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Cleveland Browns</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Green Bay Packers</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>New Orleans Saints</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Las Vegas Raiders</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>San Francisco 49ers</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Seattle Seahawks</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Tennessee Titans</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Los Angeles Chargers</td><td>8</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Minnesota Vikings</td><td>8</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Cincinnati Bengals</td><td>8</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Houston Texans</td><td>7</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Indianapolis Colts</td><td>7</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Miami Dolphins</td><td>7</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Denver Broncos</td><td>7</td></tr>
 <tr><td>New England Patriots</td><td>6</td></tr>
 <tr><td>New York Jets</td><td>6</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Washington</td><td>6</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Atlanta Falcons</td><td>5</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Carolina Panthers</td><td>5</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Detroit Lions</td><td>5</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Jacksonville Jaguars</td><td>5</td></tr>
 <tr><td>New York Giants</td><td>5</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Chicago Bears</td><td>5</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

### Ranking Notes:

**Indianapolis Colts** - lousy home loss. Moving down to 7 wins till they show me more

**Los Angeles Rams** - they looked good on paper before the season, they look good on the field now! 10+ wins season is definitely their floor

**New Orleans Saints** - Not a believer. We've seen this from Jamis Winston before. He is error-prone. Look for disappointment here.

**Pittsburg Steelers** - Impressive road victory against a tough Bills team. Watch them closely, they might be a contender this season

### Learn how to use the rankings

If you are not familiar with our betting system, stay tuned. We will be releasing some new tools and features that all you to use our team rankings to find the best NFL bets for each week. And as always, feel free to [contact us](/contactUs) with any questions. Good luck!


Week 2 Power Rankings, Betting System, NFL 2021

Watching the NFL betting trends is an important part of our weekly NFL betting activities. Reviewing the results of "against the spread" (ATS) is very important to understand how the favorites and underdogs perform throughout the season.

Every Tuesday, we will try to do some analysis on these stats to give us a betting edge for the upcoming week.

Let's take a look at week 1 ATS betting trends and see what we can find...

<img src="https://i.imgur.com/0QjZOgD.png" class="ui image large"/>

### Underdogs rule Week 1

The stat jumps out above. It's part of our betting mantra - **Underdogs make you money**. In week 1, if you just looked at underdogs across the board, you turned a profit. With 75% of underdogs cashing in, you really didn't really matter much analysis after that. Bet an underdog? 3 out of 4 cashed out.

### Away teams cashed at a slight edge

Just like with underdogs, the books "juice" (give a few more points) towards the home teams. This is very common, thinking that the home team will be dominant based on their home field advantage. What this usually creates is - value for the savvy bettor who knows to look for road teams...especially road underdogs! 

### Will these trends continue?

We will always look for underdogs...especially home dogs (who hit at 71% in week 1)...but, there is always an element of "reversion to the mean".

What does this mean you might ask...? Simple - Underdogs do not hit consistently at 75%. On a **10 year average, underdogs hit at about 55-60% of the time**. So expect the next 2 weeks for favorites to make up some ground and start cashing at a higher rate.

### Summary

As we highlighted above, underdogs are always the key focus of our betting opportunities. The majority of the time, dogs show betting value. But, we will be expecting some reversion to the mean in the next few weeks. So, maybe a slight bias towards favorites in the next few weeks will show us some betting profits.

Good luck and always feel free to ask us any questions.


Week 1 Against the Spread Betting Trends, NFL 2021

Welcome to Monday night football 2021! Here at OnlineWagerReview, we will be breaking down all the best NFL picks for the 2021 season.

If you're new to our system, we use our own proprietary NFL betting system to create our free picks. We also use this system to determine free picks, which we give to our community.

So, let's jump right into our **Las Vegas Raiders vs Baltimore Ravens Monday Night free NFL pick**:

### Raiders vs Ravens line and betting odds:
Open: BAL -5.5
Current: BAL -4
Trend: 66% of spread $ going on Raiders

### Power Rankings comparisons

In our NFL betting system, we lean heavily on our NFL Power Rankings. These allow us to compare the teams on a level playing field. We ultimately want to try to determine which plays give us the most "value" or "bang for our buck"...

When researching this matchup, we rank the teams as follows:

Baltimore Ravens: Grade of B- (10 wins on the season)
Las Vegas Raiders: Grade of C- (6 wins on the season)

How do these graded teams match up? Let's take a look...

### Ravens should be a bigger underdog

When we run these team grades against our custom formulas, we determine that our line would be:

Baltimore -6.5
Las Vegas +6.5

We see that the Ravens should be a bigger favorite. The opening line of BAL -5.5 was more realistic and accurate of a line.

### Do you bet road favorites in a primetime game?

This is a great question...and depending on which professional gambler you ask, you might get a different answer.

In our betting system, one of our golden rules of thump is - **underdogs make you money!** (very important, always try to remember this). We always try to avoid road favorites in prime-time sports (Thursday, Sunday night, and Monday night).

See below how to handle tonight...

### What's the money flow telling us?

We always watch the money flow. And what do we do with this flow? We bet against it...

In tonight's match, the books have seen heavy money bet on the Raiders. Over 2/3 of the "handle" (or money bet) on the spread has been placed on the Las Vegas Raiders...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">64% of the bets and 66% of the handle at <a href="https://twitter.com/DKSportsbook?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DKSportsbook</a> is on the Raiders +4 for tonight’s game against the Ravens. <a href="https://t.co/QhxuPXNF73">pic.twitter.com/QhxuPXNF73</a></p>&mdash; Covers (@Covers) <a href="https://twitter.com/Covers/status/1437446915092893702?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 13, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

We see this as a bullish signal for the Ravens. Betting against the "public" money flow is always the way to go. The public will move lines, but ultimately the books want equal action. This will create value in the line for betting against public money.

## Who to bet on - Raiders or Ravens?

For the first Monday Night game of 2021, we are recommending our players - tread lightly. We see some nice value betting on the Ravens -4, but this goes again some of our main betting principles. Proceed with caution.

Tonight's best bet:

**Ravens -4** <br />
**Confidence**: Medium-low (betting against the public, but on a road favorite)


Raider vs Ravens Monday Night Football Free Pick

After three different delays, the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0) and the Baltimore Ravens (6-
4) are finally scheduled to play on Wednesday afternoon. At least we hope so.

### Pittsburgh Betting Analysis

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the only remaining undefeated team left in the NFL. The reason? Their
defense. The Steelers are allowing the fewest points per game in the NFL (17.4) They own the
league’s second-best pass defense and eighth-best rush defense.

Offensively, they really haven’t been that good. Pittsburgh is somehow scoring the fourth-most
points per game despite ranking 24th in total yards, 16th in passing, and 24th in rushing. The reason
for the high scoring numbers compared to low yardage numbers is again because of that defense.
So the Steelers are 10-0 but are they the best team in the NFL? Hell no. Look at who the Steelers
have played. Only three of their opponents have records above .500 and one of those teams is the
Browns (who certainly are not as good as their record). Another one of those teams is the Ravens
who have been struggling lately and the third one is the Titans, who they only beat because of a late
missed field goal by Tennessee.

### Baltimore Betting Analysis

The Ravens started the season piling up wins despite questionable play from quarterback Lamar
Jackson. Now, the losses are catching up with them and Jackson is now out due to COVID. Is RG3
coming in as a replacement really a huge drop off? Not really, hence the Raven's 31st-ranked pass
offense.

RG3 is basically the older version of Jackson. They both like to use their legs (although yes, Jackson
is better at it) and both struggle to be consistent passers. Sure, Jackson makes some good throws
once in a while but he surely isn’t consistent throwing the ball.

So while RG3 is now running the show, that really isn’t too much of an issue. The loss of Mark
Ingram and J.K. Dobbins is more concerning. However, Gus Edwards is a solid back who should be
able to step in and carry the load.

Defensively, the Ravens are still a very good group. They allow the ninth-fewest yards per game and
the third-fewest points per game (19.5).

## Pittsburgh vs Baltimore Free Pick and Prediction

The spread keeps climbing in this game and it is understandable. Jackson is out as are the Ravens
top two backs. Having said that, let this spread climb because we want the Ravens in this one.
RG3 is going to be just as effective (or ineffective for that matter) as Jackson has been in the
passing game. That’s fine, it’s the run game that the Ravens rely on. Despite being depleted, the
Ravens run game should do well enough to keep this low-scoring hard-fought rivalry closer than the
spread indicates.

The Steelers offense isn’t that good and the team overall is overrated. The Ravens should cover this
double-digit spread and once the Steelers head to the playoffs and start playing legit teams, like the
Chiefs, they will be exposed for how bad they really are.

***Pick: Ravens+10.5***

(Published YTD Results: 14-8 :fire:)

Wednesday NFL Free Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers vs  Baltimore Ravens

This week’s Monday Night Football matchup is between two teams looking to end the
week in first place in their respective division. The Seattle Seahawks (7-3) will be
traveling cross-country to take on the Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1).

### Seattle Betting Analysis

The Seattle Seahawks are a completely different team in 2020 then we have seen in Seattle in recent
years. This is a team with an elite offense and one of the worst defenses. The Seahawks are capable
of putting up a ton of points each week but their defense is also capable of allowing a ton of points.
Seattle is third in the league in total yards. They own the league&#39;s second-highest scoring offense as
well. Russell Wilson was an MVP favorite a few weeks ago but his play the last few weeks has
dropped him down a spot or two. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are having excellent seasons in the
receiving game and make for two very different and very difficult targets for defenses to defend
against.

Luckily for Seattle opponents, their defense is easy to move the ball on. In fact, they allow the most
yards per game in the NFL (446.3). They have the worst pass defense in the NFL, allowing over 343
passing yards per game. As a result, they are 28th in points allowed per game (28.7).

### Philadelphia Betting Analysis

Philadelphia has struggled all season but thanks to a terrible NFC East, they are still right in the
playoff hunt. Carson Wentz is having the worst season of his career and is having arguably the worst
season in the NFL among regular starting quarterbacks. Wentz has 24 turnovers compared to just 19
total touchdowns.

The Eagles’ offense is 27th in passing and just 25th overall. A respectable rushing attack ranks 12th.
Philadelphia has struggled on third down this season, converting just 37.5% (28th). Overall, they are
24th in points scored per game.

The Eagles defense has been somewhat decent this season. They are middle-of-the-pack in total
yards and points allowed. However, they have struggled against the rush (27th). Surprisingly, they
own the league’s sixth-best pass defense.

## Seattle vs Philadelphia Free Pick and Prediction

Seattle has struggled lately, losing three of their last five. However, those were against solid teams
that are likely to find playoff berths this season in Buffalo, L.A. Rams, and Arizona. While Philly could
sneak into the playoffs by winning a historically terrible NFC East, the Eagles aren’t on the same level
as the Seahawks or any of the teams that they have lost to.

Seattle needs to keep putting up wins if they want to stay ahead in the NFC West and keep fighting
for a potential #1 seed. Losing a game to a team like Philadelphia would essentially end their #1
overall quest and make their NFC West title chase a lot more difficult.

With the spread under a full touchdown, the bet here has to be on Seattle. Wentz is a disaster and
even against a defense as bad as Seattles, he will probably struggle again tonight. Roll with Wilson
and that great offense to pile on the points against an Eagles’ defense that has played a lot of weak
teams to boost their stats.

***Pick: Seattle-6.5***
(Published YTD Results: 14-8 :moneybag:)

Monday Night Football Free Pick: Seattle Seahawks vs  Philadelphia Eagles

For the second time this season, the Tennessee Titans (7-3) will be taking on the Indianapolis Colts (7-3). This time, the winner will be in first place of the AFC South with just five games to go.

### Tennessee Betting Analysis

When you think of the Tennessee Titans, you think of Derrick Henry. While he is the focal point of the offense, Ryan Tannehill and the passing game shouldn’t be slept on. Tannehill is having an excellent season (2,387 yards, 22 TD, 4 INT) and he has some serious weapons in A.J. Brown and Jonnu Smith.
The Titans offense is fifth in rushing and while they rank just 23rd in passing, they can certainly turn to the air when they need to. As a result, they are 10th in the league in total yards per game and ninth in points scored per game.

When it comes to defense, things have been very subpar for the Titans. Entering the season, they were expected to have an above average defense but that hasn’t been the case. They are 25th in yards allowed per game.

Tennessee has struggled more so against the pass (27th) than the rush (19th). The biggest issue for the Titans is getting off of the field on third down. They allow a league worst 54% success rate on third downs. Despite all of this, the Titans are a not incredibly terrible 18th in points allowed per game.

### Indianapolis Betting Analysis

When Philip Rivers came to town in the offseason, the Colts immediately shot up the Super Bowl odds list. We knew how good their defense was going to be, now they have a gunslinger (albeit an aging one) and a deep running back group that got better when they drafted Jonathan Taylor.

Now, 10 games into the season, we are seeing the Philip Rivers we are used to seeing. One week he looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the league and another week it looks like he should have retired. Inconsistency is the story for this Colts team.

The running game hasn’t been what they were hoping for (19th) but losing Marlon Mack for the season was a blow there. As a result, their 10th-ranked passing offense has them scoring the 10th most points per game.

The Colts defense is one of the best in the NFL. However, we saw last week against Green Bay that they can be scored on as the Packers put up 28 in the first half. So while they allow the second-fewest yards per game and the fifth-fewest points per game, they are certainly not bulletproof.

## Tennessee vs Indianapolis Free Pick and Prediction

After losing the first meeting, the Titans need this game more than the Colts to avoid falling a game back and behind in the tiebreaker. The Colts were dominated last week in the first 30 minutes before the Packers for some reason abandoned their game plan and let the Colts back in and eventually win the game.

The Titans can run the ball well and pass when they need to. For the Colts to win against a good opponent, Rivers needs to have a good game, which will happen about 50% of the time this season. While the Titans defense isn’t very good, Rivers can make a bad defense look good.

Look for the Titans to adjust from the first meeting and have a better game, especially offensively. Henry should run well against an injured and depleted Colts rush defense. Then, Tannehill and company should move the ball through the air when they want, especially with Brown. 

The Titans should even the series up here and take a one game lead in the AFC South. Take the points and even the Titans moneyline is a great bet.

Pick: Titans+3

(Published YTD Results: 13-8 💰)

Sunday NFL Free Pick: Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

This Saturday’s free pick comes out of the Big Ten as #3 Ohio State (4-0) takes on Illinois (2-3). Ohio State is coming off of their biggest win of the season, taking down #9 Indiana 42-35. Illinois is on a two-game win streak after starting their season 0-3.

### Ohio State Betting Analysis

Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country and certainly the best team in the Big Ten. Justin Fields is likely a Heisman finalist and his offense is full of other weapons that include running back Master Teague and receivers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.

We are used to seeing an elite defense at Ohio State but this year that really isn’t the case. They rank a respectable 45th in points allowed per game, far from what you would expect this defense to be like. However, when you lose most of your top talent guys to the NFL, it’s understandable to expect a dip the following season.

### Illinois Betting Analysis

Illinois is good at one thing and that’s about it. The Fighting Illini can run the ball and they like to do it a lot. Illinois ranks 20th in the country in rushing yards per game. Although, they rank just 113th in passing offense and as a result are 100th in points scored per game. 

The Illinois defense isn’t very good. They rank 92nd against the pass and 96th against the rush. By their standards, ranking 82nd in points allowed per game isn’t as terrible as it could be. 

##Ohio State vs Illinois Free Pick and Prediction

Ohio State is coming off of their biggest win of the season and their schedule gets very easy the next two weeks. Last week against Indiana, Ohio State looked a little unmotivated at times, especially in the second half when they had a lead of over 20 points. That is something you don’t like to see if you are betting on a team like Ohio State when they are big favorites.

Illinois is going to want to run the ball a lot in this game. They will have to throw more than they like as they start to trail but the Ohio State defense is 119th against the pass. While Illinois isn’t a good passing team, they can do better than you would expect against this defense.

This will be a sleeper game for Ohio State. This will be a get it over with going through the motions type of game. They should cruise to victory but Illinois should be able to stay within the spread on this one. 
Illinois will run a lot of clock and should be able to throw fairly well at times, at least enough to keep this one close. Anything 28 or higher is a great bet for Illinois, certainly bet it if you can get the hook at +28.5.

Pick: Illinois+28.5

(Published YTD Results: 13-8 💰)



Saturday College Free Pick: Ohio State vs Illinois

In the second of what is now just two Thanksgiving Day NFL games, the Washington Football Team (3-7) will take on the Dallas Cowboys (3-7). Surprisingly, these two 3-7 teams are playing for first place in the NFC East.

### Washington Betting Analysis

The Washington Football Team has a strong young defense and some talent on offense as well. However, their offense hasn’t been very productive. When Kyle Allen went down and Alex Smith came back after his injury hiatus, some thought the offense would get better. It really hasn’t though.
Washington ranks in the bottom eight in the league in every major offensive category. They are also the fourth lowest-scoring team in the NFL.

Defensively, Washington is a very good group. They own the league’ best pass defense and are allowing the seventh-fewest total yards per game. Washington is allowing the ninth-fewest points per game and they are the ninth-best team at getting off of the field on third down.

### Dallas Betting Analysis

Dallas has been an underachieving train wreck all season. When Dak Prescott went down, everything began to unravel. Andy Dalton replaced him and wasn’t exactly as productive. After losing him to concussion for a couple of weeks, Dallas went to complete hell. Now that he is back, they may be the best team in the lowly NFC East.

The Cowboys offensive numbers aren’t to be trusted as almost half of the season thus far they had Dak under center. The biggest question mark has been Ezekiel Elliot. As good as he is, he has struggled mightily as of late. The good news, he is coming off of his best game of the season.

Dallas defense has been historically bad. They are allowing a league-high 31.8 points per game. They own the league’s second-worst rush defense but are surprisingly 14th against the pass. They showed last week against Minnesota that even against one of the hottest running backs, they can still find a way to win.

## Washington vs Dallas Free Pick and Prediction

After 10 games, it is essentially a new season for both of these teams. They are playing for first place in their division and despite being 3-7 have the momentum and energy of any other team competing for a playoff spot.

Zeke is coming off of his best game of the season, which is huge for Dallas. Dalton is back and while he isn’t Prescott, he is still a more than serviceable backup. As good as Washington’s defense is, Dallas can still be strong on offense if Zeke gets going, which he should against Washington’s 18th-ranked rush defense.

The Dallas defense shouldn’t have much trouble against Washington. Dallas should somehow be in first place after this game at 4-7 as they get the win and people/media start to mistakenly believe this team is actually playoff-worthy.

***Pick: Dallas-3***

(Published YTD Results: 13-7 💰)

Thanksgiving NFL Free Pick: Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys

In a big AFC West rematch, the Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) look to avenge an earlier season loss to the Las Vegas Raiders (6-3).

## Kansas City Betting Analysis

Kansas City is the best team in the NFL, there is no arguing that. To hell with records and the Steelers squeaking by against a weak schedule, the Chiefs are the team to beat. 

Patrick Mahomes is somehow quietly having another MVP-caliber season. The Chiefs defense is playing well and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a great running back with Le’Veon Bell arguably the league’s best backup. There is no weakness on offense and very few on defense.

The only flaw with the Chiefs is that sometimes they seem bored out there. That is understandable when you are as good as they are. After losing to the Raiders earlier this year, they won’t be bored in this one. Especially after the way the Raiders acted after their win against the Chiefs earlier this season.

### Las Vegas Betting Analysis

Las Vegas is good at controlling the clock and keeping opposing offenses off of the field, which is the recipe for defeating a team like the Chiefs. They did it well in their first meeting and that is why they got the win.
The Raiders can run the ball and quarterback Derek Carr is having a good season as well. The biggest threat for the Raiders in terms of receiving is tight end Darren Waller. Outside of Travis Kelce and George Kittle, Waller is arguably one of the best tight ends in football.

The Raiders defense hasn’t been good statistically, especially against the pass (25th). Against more elite competition, this is what will be the downfall of the Raiders.

## Kansas City vs Las Vegas Free Pick and Prediction

Kansas City is pissed off, it's that simple. Andy Reid has the best team in the NFL and now they are entering 
this game with a fire under their ass. The Chiefs will not be lackluster in this one against the Raiders like they were last time.

Sure, Oakland can run and the Chiefs struggle against the run. That is the only advantage Las Vegas really has. They can try and keep Mahomes off of the field but I expect the Chiefs defense to make some adjustments and stop the run better in this game.

Kansas City’s offense is going to explode in this one. Mahomes fantasy owners should be in for a big day. Las Vegas did the one thing you don’t do to the best team and the best player in the NFL, show-off after getting an upset win. Now, there will be no mercy.

Chiefs show they are the NFL’s best team and will decimate the Raiders in this game. Get your bet in because the spread is climbing, as it should. Raiders get put in their place tonight.

***Pick: Kansas City-7***

(Published YTD Results: 12-6 💰)

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Free Sunday Night Pick

The Miami Dolphins (6-3) take their win streak to the mile high stadium as they take on the Denver Broncos (3-6). 

### Miami Betting Analysis

The Miami Dolphins have won their last five games after starting the season 1-3. Since Tua Tagovailoa has taken over, the Dolphins are 3-0. How much should we be buying into the Tua hype. Honestly, not that much.

Even JaMarcus Russell had a good start to his career over the first couple of games. Tua has been bailed out by his defense and special teams all three games. He has seen 3 D/ST touchdowns and a blocked punt that has essentially been a touchdown as it set them up at the 3-yard line. His luck will run out eventually.

Miami has wins over Jacksonville, a depleted 49ers team, the Jets, and the self-inflicted Chargers. Their two impressive wins were against the L.A. Rams and Arizona Cardinals. Against the Rams, the defense had a touchdown and they also had a punt return for a touchdown. Against Arizona, they had another defensive touchdown on their way to a three-point win. The luck for Miami will end eventually. 

### Denver Betting Analysis

Denver has been a huge letdown this season. Injuries have been a big reason but also quarterback Drew Lock hasn’t had the year that was expected of him. With some many young weapons on offense, the Broncos should have been a better team this season. Again, injuries on both sides of the ball certainly didn’t help matters.

Lock has been forcing the ball at times and inaccurate. However, he still shows flashes of what his potential and this Broncos’ offense can be. When he holds on to the ball, the Broncos offense can still be dangerous at times. The problem is, that is usually tough for him to do.
Defensively, the Broncos have been below average. They have been decent against the pass (14th) and good on third-down (6th). Still, nothing like we were expecting in Denver this season.

## Miami vs Denver Free Pick and Prediction

If Denver can hold onto the ball, they can and should win this game. Neither defense is very good statistically, but Denver is actually better. Miami has just been lucking out with touchdowns the last few games, a trend that has to end eventually.

Somehow, Miami is 23rd in total yards allowed, 20th against the pass and 22nd against the rush, but 5th in points allowed. Eventually, that points allowed will begin to crack. Also, the Tua hype is due to come to a screeching halt sooner than later.

While Denver isn’t exactly the best team out there, they should be able to show their potential in this game. They can still be a good team at times when they line everything up. I trust in them to do that today against an overrated and overhyped Dolphins team that has been so lucky they should be buying PowerBall tickets.

Denver could even win this one outright.

***Pick: Denver+3.5***

(Published YTD Results: 12-6 💰)

Sunday NFL Afternoon Free Pick: Miami Dolphins vs  Denver Broncos

Ultimate Guide To The Best US Betting Sites

Thanks to glorious MAC football, we are in the middle of enjoying nearly a month-straight of daily football. That continues on Wednesday night as the Toledo Rockets (1-1) will take on the Eastern Michigan Eagles (0-2)

### Toledo Betting Analysis

The Toledo Rockets were a popular non-favorite betting choice for the MAC title this season. They opened their season with a blowout win over Bowling Green (the worst FBS team in the country) 38-3. Then, they dropped a heart-breaking loss to Western Michigan 41-38 after an onside-kick recovery and fake-spike gaming-winning touchdown with 17 seconds left.

The Rockets’ offense spends a lot of time on the field. They are second in the country in time on the field and also third in plays ran. However, a lot of that can be contributed to the fact that they played Bowling Green. So while they are top 25 in the country in passing offense, rushing offense, and points scored (all per game), how much can we really trust those numbers?

The same could be said about their 33rd-ranked defense. When one of your two games comes against the worst FBS team in the country, it’s hard to trust statistics like that.

### Eastern Michigan Betting Analysis

Unlike Toledo, Eastern Michigan has played two of the MAC’s better teams. They lost them both in close fashion. They lost to Kent State 27-23 and Ball State 38-31. Both of which were expected to be among the best in the MAC behind Buffalo. The Eagles played them both well.

So when you see Eastern Michigan has the 77th-ranked offense and 83rd-ranked defense through two games, the same could be said about their numbers like Toledo’s. With Toledo, it is hard to trust how good their numbers are. With Eastern Michigan, it is hard to fault them for those numbers. It’s all about strength of schedule thus far, which EMU leads by a mile.

## Toledo vs Eastern Michigan Free Pick and Prediction

Toledo likes to have quarterback Eli Peters throw a lot (78 times in two games). He torched Bowling Green, but wasn’t that  impressive against a vulnerable Western Michigan defense (30/46 339 yards, 1TD, 1INT). Running back Bryant Koback is averaging 22.5 carries but just 76 yards per game (3.4 YPC).  So while Toledo’s offense may have good numbers, they really don’t look to be that great, especially considering their opponents.

EMU quarterback Preston Hutchinson hasn’t been great this season (491 passing yards, 3TD, 2INT) but he has been solid, considering the quality of opponents. He also showed in his last game against Ball State that he is capable of being a runner as well (104 rush yards). 

In this matchup, you have to look deeper than the numbers. Toledo outshines EMU in every category, fairly significantly. However, you got to realize that Toledo played BG and a WMU team that can be scored on. EMU has played two of the best teams not named Buffalo in the MAC.

EMU is a solid looking team by MAC standards. Toledo is likely a solid team as well. In fact, these are probably two very equal teams when it's all said and done. That is why you want the points in this one. EMU very easily can win this game and show that they are the better team. At the very least, with +7, we should see a push if we don’t cover.

***Pick: Eastern Michigan +7***

(Published YTD Results: 12-6 💰)

Wednesday MAC-Tion Free Betting Pick: Toledo vs  Eastern Michigan

This week’s Monday Night Football is an NFC North battle as the Minnesota Vikings (3-5) take on the Chicago Bears (5-4). The Vikings have won their last two games while the Bears are on a three-game skid.

### Minnesota Betting Analysis

Minnesota can only do one thing, run the ball. Dalvin Cook is arguably the best running back in the league right now. The Vikings offensive line has been a good run blocking unit but not as great in pass blocking.

Kirk Cousins is having a somewhat decent season, at least by his standards. Justin Jefferson is a great WR2 alongside Adam Thielen but the Vikings pass offense is just 25th in the league. For comparison, they are the third-best rushing team.

The Vikings defense is nothing like it has been in recent years. They allow the third-most total yards and passing yards per game. They also allow the eighth-most points per game in the league.
Long story short, the Vikings have to be able to run the ball to be effective.

### Chicago Betting Analysis

The Chicago Bears offense is the equivalent of a mustard sandwich, it's terrible. They are 28th in yards per game and they are the league’s worst rushing team. As a result, they are the league’s fourth-lowest scoring team.

The Bears defense isn’t as elite as it has been in the past, but it is still a very good unit. They allow the ninth-fewest yards per game and are seventh against the rush and 14th against the pass. Chicago allows the seventh-fewest points per game and they are the best third-down defense in the NFL.
Fortunately for the Bears and their fans, Matt Nagy has handed over play-calling duties to OC Bill Lazor. Since Matt Nagy couldn’t run a junior high offense, this should immediately make the Bears offense better somehow, since it can’t make it any worse.

## Minnesota vs Chicago Free Pick and Prediction

Chicago isn’t the best run defense in the NFL (14th) but they aren’t bad. The Vikings are “hot” because they played two teams with some of the worst run defenses in the NFL (Green Bay and Detroit). Against a Bears run defense that is above average, the Vikings are going to struggle on offense. 

The Bears offense is garbage but so is the Vikings defense. With some new play calling, maybe the Bears can be better on offense now. Don’t take the Vikings because the media is hyping them up as a hot team right now. Don’t be a sheep. Be a Bear (Ba Dum Tss).

***Pick: Chicago +3***

(Published YTD Results: 12-5 💰)

Minnesota Vikings  vs Chicago Bears - Monday Night Football Free Pick

This week’s matchup between Penn State (0-3) and Nebraska (0-2) is a contest by two teams that are a surprising 0-5. Penn State began the season ranked in the Top 10, which now seems laughable. Nebraska is more understandably winless as they played Ohio State and a tough Northwestern team that they played fairly close.

### Penn State Betting Analysis

Penn State opened the season at #8 and immediately from the start of the first game that looked like an over-ranking. They found themselves down 17-7 against Indiana and eventually went on to lose the game in exciting fashion in overtime. Then, they lost to Ohio State by two touchdowns and it appeared the wheels have completely come off as they then suffered their largest defeat to a questionable Maryland team.

Quarterback Sean Clifford has thrown for nine touchdowns but he also has five interceptions and has been sacked 12 times in the last two games. The offense clearly runs through him as the Penn State rushing attack has been terrible. Clifford is also the team's leading rusher.
The Penn State defense has been getting knocked around all season. They have allowed at least 35 points in every game. 

### Nebraska Betting Analysis

Once again, the Nebraska Cornhuskers were expecting a big year out of their offense and quarterback Adrian Martinez. Their first drive of the season looked promising as they marched down the field and scored a touchdown against Ohio State. Since then, it hasn’t been very promising.

Martinez is just 24/42 for 230 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. However he does have 179 rushing yards. Dedrick Mills is the team's traditional running back but hasn’t gotten much production on his 29 carries. Luke McCaffrey (Christian’s brother) works as a Taysom Hill type player who is listed as a quarterback but does more damage as a runner and can be a playmaker.

Nebraska’s defense has trouble stopping teams on the ground. While they did hold Northwestern to 21 points, that was due in large part to two interceptions they forced. Team’s can certainly move the ball on this defense.

## Penn State vs Nebraska Free Pick and Prediction

It is hard to gage how bad this Penn State team really is. They suffered a heartbreaking loss to a good Indiana team and then lost to a very good Ohio State. The Maryland game was perhaps a hangover performance. One thing we do know, teams can score on Penn State and Penn State can score as well.
Clifford should have a big game for the Nittany Lions. Expect him to move the ball a lot with his legs. At 0-3 we are going to see what this Penn State team is made of. Expect them to have their foot on the gas all game as they look to score on every possession to try and build some confidence going forward.

Don’t sleep on the Nebraska offense. They can move the ball too and should be able to in this game. This should be a back-and-forth type game with either team capable of pulling away late. We want the total in this one, not the spread.

Penn State’s offense should put up points and Nebraska should keep pace as well, maybe even pulling off a win. Roll with the over in what should be a high-scoring game.

Pick: Over 56

Published YTD Results: (11-4) 💰


College Football Saturday Early Game Free Pick: Penn State vs Nebraska

A big American Athletic Conference matchup is scheduled for Saturday night as the #19 SMU Mustangs (7-1) take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-1). This is a big game for both teams to try and keep pace in the American with undefeated #7 Cincinnati.

### SMU Betting Analysis

SMU likes to operate a fast-paced air-it-out type offense. While that helps them put up big numbers against weak opponents, we saw this season it isn’t exactly the most effective against good teams.

A couple weeks ago, Cincinnati held SMU to just 13 points. We also some some other weeks where the offense didn’t quite perform like it should have, like 31 points against Texas State and 30 against a weak Memphis defense.

Defensively, the Mustangs allow a lot of points. Think of SMU sort of like the Seattle Seahawks. Their defense is never going to win them a game, their offense needs to carry the load and if they run into a decent enough defense, they are in trouble.

### Tulsa Betting Analysis

Tulsa is a team that has a good defense and a surprisingly solid offense as well. Tulsa held Oklahoma State to just 16 points, but suffered their only loss as their offense managed just seven points. They held the offensive juggernaut UCF to just 26 points, USF to 13 points and an ECU offense that put up points to just 30.

Tulsa’s offense is solid and can run and pass the ball decently well. Quarterback Zach Smith is having a pretty good season but needs to limit his interceptions (5). The Golden Hurricane have two running backs in Deneric Prince and T.K. Wilkerson who can both be big factors in their offense.
SMU vs Tulsa Free Pick and Prediction
Tulsa’s defense is the second-best in the AAC behind a stout Cincinnati defense. They should be able to limit the potent SMU offense as well as any team in the conference, other than the Bearcats. While they may not dominante them as well as Cincy did, Tulsa should be able to give SMU one of their toughest challenges of the season.

Tulsa can also put up points on offense. If Smith can hold on to the ball, they should be able to get a comfortable win against SMU. Regardless of Smith’s performance, I like Tulsa’s defense to help them get the win in this one. The Tulsa offense can also control the clock on the ground and dictate the pace in this game.

Ignore SMU’s ranking, Tulsa is the better team and should get the win at home.

***Pick: Tulsa-1***

Published YTD Results: (11-4) 💰


College Football Saturday Late Game Free Pick: SMU vs Tulsa

This week’s Thursday Night Football game will be a big one in deciding who wins the AFC South this season. The Indianapolis Colts (5-3), fresh off a loss to the Baltimore Ravens, will take on the Tennessee Titans (6-2), who took down the Chicago Bears last week.

### Colts Betting Analysis

Heading into the 2020 season, the Indianapolis Colts were a sleeper Super Bowl team to some people (including myself). So far halfway through the season, they have been hit or miss. A lot of the reasoning has been quarterback Philip Rivers and the offense.
The Colts defense has been what we expected it to be. They allow the fewest total yards per game and they rank third against both the pass and the rush. Indianapolis also allows the third-fewest points per game. 

Rivers has been having an up and down year that has resulted in the Colts owning the 14th-ranked pass offense. Jonathan Taylor has taken over the backfield but the Colts rushing attack ranks just 22nd in the league and Taylor is struggling to hold on to the ball. Overall, the Colts are 15th in points scored per game.
If the Colts are going to make a legit run this season, the offense needs to get it together.

### Titans Betting Analysis

The Tennessee Titans are sitting in the opposite scenario of the Indianapolis Colts. Their offense has been their strength while their defense has struggled.

Everyone knows the Titans’ offense is run-first, particularly Derrick Henry first. They own the league’s sixth-best rushing attack. Ryan Tannehill has plenty of weapons in his offense to throw to, including the league’s most underrated receiver in A.J. Brown. Still, the Titans rank just 20th in passing offense. Tennessee is seventh in the league in points per game.

The Titans’ defense is the worst in the league in getting off of the field on third down. They struggle more against the pass (27th) than they do against the run (17th). Overall, they rank 15th in points allowed per game.
The Titans defense needs to start playing better if they want to compete with the elite in the AFC.

## Indianapolis vs Tennessee Free Pick and Prediction

This is the first meeting between the two teams this season, with the second coming 17 days later. The Titans two losses have come against teams that can throw the ball well (Cincinnati and Pittsburgh). For Indianapolis to win this game, they are going to need Philip Rivers to have a good game and move the ball through the air.

The game plan for the Colts will be to stop Derrick Henry (or at least try). Once they start to get Tannehill to throw, they have to be able to slow down A.J. Brown. Doing those two things isn’t an easy task for most teams, but most teams don’t have a defense like the Colts.

Indianapolis must hold on to the ball in this game. After a fumble last week that may have cost them the game, the Colts should be focussing on ball security all week. Assuming Taylor can hold on to the ball, the Colts offense should be able to move the ball against this Titans’ defense.

Look for Rivers to have one of his better games of the year in this one. The Colts were favored last week against the Ravens. If not for Taylor’s fumble, they have a great shot at winning that game and would be favored in this one. Take the Colts plus the points.

***Pick: Colts+2***

(Published YTD Results: 10-4 💰)

Thursday Night Football Free Pick: Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

This week’s Monday Night Football game is a matchup of the two bottom-feeders in the AFC East as the New England Patriots (2-5) take on the New York Jets (0-8). While the Jets are used to being at the bottom of their division, this is new territory for the Patriots compared to the past two decades.

### Patriots Betting Analysis

The Patriots are on a four-game losing streak and Cam Newton is a big reason why. He looked good at the beginning of the season and gave this Patriots’ team a new look. However, he has struggled for most of the past month and he can’t seem to stop committing turnovers.

The Patriots need to be able to run the ball for their offense to do anything. Their 30th-ranked pass offense makes this a very one-dimensional team. While they do have the third-best rush offense, they are scoring the fourth-fewest points per game. 

During their four-game losing streak, the Patriots have played some tough teams in Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco, and an underrated Denver team. Now they will have a chance to redeem themselves against the league’s worst team.

### Jets Betting Analysis

The New York Jets are not just the worst team in the NFL this year, they are one of the worst teams in the history of the NFL. Their offense is on a historically bad pace. They rank last in the league in total yards, passing yards, points, and third-down conversion rate.

The Jets defense is better than their offense, but still terrible. They have the league’s fourth-worst pass defense, they allow the seventh-most yards per game, and fifth-most points per game. Their best statistic is their 14th-ranked rush defense, but that is more about teams just being able to throw against them so easily that they don’t even bother wasting their time running. There is a very high chance this team goes 0-16.

## New England vs New York Free Pick and Prediction

Newton keeps saying that his play has been “unacceptable” yet he hasn’t really done anything to improve. He knows he is on a short leash and his inability to hold on to the ball is putting his job in serious jeopardy. This may be his last chance to prove he deserves to be a starter in New England, and maybe the NFL in general.
Newton and the Patriots have to end the skid now and lucky for them, this is the best team for them to do it against. Cam knows he needs a big game and he should be able to have a big game on Monday Night Football.

If Newton fails to have a good game here and get a win, we may be seeing the last of Newton as the starter in New England. 

Look for Bill Belichick, Newton and the rest of the Patriots to go for the overkill here as they look to end their four-game skid and keep their slim playoff hopes alive. 

This is a confidence building game for the Patriots, they are going to want to pile it on.

Pick: Patriots-9.5

(Published YTD Results: 10-2 💰)


Monday Night Football Free Pick: New England Patriots vs New York Jets

This week’s Sunday Night Football game will go a long way in determining who wins the NFC South this season. The New Orleans Saints (5-2) will meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) for the second time this season. The Saints won the first meeting 34-23 in Week 1.

### Saints Betting Analysis

The New Orleans Saints are 5-2 but they aren’t getting the respect they usually get every year, and there is a good reason for that. Without Michael Thomas in the lineup, the offense hasn’t been as explosive as previous years. If not for Alvin Kamara, the Saints’ offensive would be on par with the Chicago Bears.

Drew Brees is one of the best quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen but he just doesn’t look as elite as he has been in previous years. You don’t want to sleep on Brees but at the same time, he just isn’t the threat he used to be.

New Orleans will be getting Michael Thomas back in this game and that is a big boost. However, this offense really has just two people you need to contain, Kamara and Thomas. Do that, and this team is in trouble.

On the defensive side, the Saints have shown that they can easily be beaten. Even against some questionable offenses this season, the Saints’ defense has looked rough.

### Bucs Betting Analysis

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can look like the best team in the NFL one week and then another just barely squeak by a bottom-feeder team. Tom Brady is the G.O.A.T. in terms of resume but his talent this year has been far from G.O.A.T. status.

The Tampa offense is packed with weapons (when healthy). Brady has his touchdown machine in tight end Rob Gronkowski, a top 10 receiver in Mike Evans, and a deep threat in Chris Godwin. Add in a running game that features Leonard Fournette and a much improved Ronald Jones and you have a potentially scary offense.

However, as good as their offense can be, they have looked far from the part numerous times. Consistency will be key for this team come playoffs if they want to make a legit Super Bowl run against the league’s elite.

Defensively, the Bucs are among the league’s best. In their game against the Green Bay Packers earlier this season, we saw that their defense can jump-start their, at times, lackluster offense. If Tampa does in fact win it all this year, the defense will be why, not Brady and the offense.

## New Orleans vs Tampa Bay Free Pick and Prediction

Tampa Bay is a perfect example of a team that plays to the level of their competition. They play their worst against bad teams and their best against good teams. The Saints are a good team, so we can expect Tampa to play a good game on Sunday night.

Aside from their Week 1 win against Tampa Bay, the Saints have been just barely getting by each week. Both teams are on a run right now with tons of momentum. They know how important this game is.

These are the type of games where both Brady and Brees have shown up to play some of their best football. While both quarterbacks are likely to have good games, the edge has to go to Brady. While he is up against a below-average defense with more weapons, Brees has just two weapons that a very good Bucs defense can limit.

Tampa needs this game more than New Orleans, they can’t afford to drop both games to the Saints. In a revenge game, Tampa and that elite defense should be able to get the best of the Saints. 

***Pick: Tampa Bay-4***

(Published YTD Results: 8-2 :moneybag:)

Sunday Night Football Free Pick: New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-1) will take on the (3) Ohio State Buckeyes this Saturday afternoon. Rutgers opened their season with an upset win over Michigan State 38-27 and then followed that up with a loss to Indiana 37-21. Ohio State opened their season with a blowout win over Nebraska by a score of 52-17. They followed that up with a win over Penn State 38-25.

### Rutgers Betting Analysis

Rutgers surprised some (not all) when they opened their season with an upset win over Michigan State. After a 2-10 season last year that saw them go 0-9 in the Big Ten, Rutgers is already off to a better conference record than last season.

This year, Rutgers is a team that you should be following to bet on. Typically a disaster the last decade or so, they should actually be a fairly decent squad this year and cover big spreads like the one in this game.
It's been just two games but Rutgers have some fairly respectable stats thus far. The are in the middle-of-the-pack in points per game (59th), which is a huge improvement from last season already. Despite being 89th in points allowed per game, they are 20th against the rush (although 108th against the pass). Overall, they rank a very solid 38th in yards per play allowed.

### Ohio State Betting Analysis

Ohio State is once again getting College Football Playoff hype this season. Quarterback Justin Fields is a Heisman favorite for a lot of people, as he should be. The Big Ten is Ohio State’s to lose for sure.

The Buckeyes are certainly one of the best teams in the country. However, their defense has lost a lot of major pieces from last season. While still talented, the Ohio State defense isn’t exactly elite like it has been in recent years.

The Buckeyes are 37th in points allowed per game. They are also 57th against the pass and 56th against the rush. Perhaps the most surprising defensive stat is that they allow 6.21 yards per play (101st in the country).

## Rutgers vs Ohio State Free Pick and Prediction

Ohio State’s offense isn’t going to have trouble scoring in this game. In fact, I’d be surprised to see more than one punt from the Buckeyes in this game. However, don’t sleep on the Scarlet Knights.

While Rutgers still isn’t exactly a good team, they are certainly a better team than last year and most recent years. A spread reaching nearly 40 points almost seems disrespectful. This is one that casual bettors will see and hop on Ohio State thinking that Rutgers is just another walkover.

So while Ohio State will have no problem scoring enough points to make a cover possible, I’m trusting in Rutgers’ offense to score enough points to cover and help push this game over. 

Rutgers has put up nearly 30 points per game so far this season. Against an Ohio State defense that isn’t as elite as some people expect it to be, they should be able to put up at least two touchdowns in this game. 
Take both Rutgers+39 as well as the over 64. Ohio State could certainly score 56+ points in this game and find a cheap cover at the end, but I don’t think they do that. If they do, at least you will have the over to back you as well and make this one a wash.

***Pick: Rutgers+39 and Over 64***

Published YTD Results: (7-2) 💰

College Football Free Pick Saturday: Rutgers vs Ohio  State

This Friday marks just day three of 28-straight days of football. We have three games on Friday, including three ranked teams. Our best matchup of the night is the final game in a ranked matchup between BYU (7-0) and Boise State (2-0). 

### BYU Betting Analysis

BYU has been a bit of a surprise team this season. Currently sitting at 7-0, some people think that BYU may even be a potential College Football Playoff contender. I’d hold off on that pipe dream
Quarterback Zach Wilson is a potential Heisman finalist and deservedly so. He already has 2,152 passing yards and 19 touchdowns against just two interceptions. BYU also has an excellent defense. Altogether, they do look like a team that could be a title contender. However, we need to look a little deeper.

I’m taking nothing away from a good BYU team. They have handled their schedule with ease (aside from UTSA) and while they had a schedule that originally featured Power 5 teams, the COVID pandemic caused that to change. It’s not BYU’s fault that they had a weak schedule this season.

BYU torched a bad Navy team, a less than impressive Troy, another bad team in Louisiana Tech, barely squeaked by a very bad UTSA, beat a Houston team playing just its second game, a bad Texas State team, and a horrible Western Kentucky team. 

When you look at their schedule, it's not surprising the stats they have put up. In fact, you’d be skeptical of this team if they didn’t do as well as they have done against some of these teams. The biggest win of the season was against a 2-2 Houston team that isn’t expected to do much this season.

### Boise State Betting Analysis

Boise State has only played two games so far this season. Like BYU, they also haven’t really been tested yet this season. The Broncos throttled Utah State 42-13 in their first game and then took down Air Force 49-30.

Boise State put up over 450 total yards in each game. Through their two games, they have the fifth-highest points per game average. They are also third in the country in yards per play.

Defensively, the Broncos had a rough time against a run-heavy Air Force team, allowing an insane 415 rushing yards. The Boise defense is going to be a solid group this season but that is certainly a red flag for the Broncos going forward.

## BYU vs Boise State Free Pick and Prediction

This will be the first real test for both teams in this contest. Either team could prevail and either team could prove to be a bust. One thing that should be certain, is a high-scoring game. 

Wilson could have a big game for BYU, doing a lot of damage on the ground. Both teams are in the top five in the country in yards per play, meaning we should see plenty of big plays. 

BYU’s defense has been good but they also haven’t had to play too many good offenses. Even Houston’s offense has been a letdown this season. Against this Boise offense, BYU might have their hands full.
I’d avoid the spread in this one. If anything, Boise State is likely the better spread pick here. However, this should be a back-and-forth shootout that sees plenty of points. Enjoy a close game and put your money on the safer bet, the over.

***Pick: Over 61***

Published YTD Results: (6-2) 💰

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