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Hello, Universe!

In a big AFC West rematch, the Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) look to avenge an earlier season loss to the Las Vegas Raiders (6-3).

## Kansas City Betting Analysis

Kansas City is the best team in the NFL, there is no arguing that. To hell with records and the Steelers squeaking by against a weak schedule, the Chiefs are the team to beat. 

Patrick Mahomes is somehow quietly having another MVP-caliber season. The Chiefs defense is playing well and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a great running back with Le’Veon Bell arguably the league’s best backup. There is no weakness on offense and very few on defense.

The only flaw with the Chiefs is that sometimes they seem bored out there. That is understandable when you are as good as they are. After losing to the Raiders earlier this year, they won’t be bored in this one. Especially after the way the Raiders acted after their win against the Chiefs earlier this season.

### Las Vegas Betting Analysis

Las Vegas is good at controlling the clock and keeping opposing offenses off of the field, which is the recipe for defeating a team like the Chiefs. They did it well in their first meeting and that is why they got the win.
The Raiders can run the ball and quarterback Derek Carr is having a good season as well. The biggest threat for the Raiders in terms of receiving is tight end Darren Waller. Outside of Travis Kelce and George Kittle, Waller is arguably one of the best tight ends in football.

The Raiders defense hasn’t been good statistically, especially against the pass (25th). Against more elite competition, this is what will be the downfall of the Raiders.

## Kansas City vs Las Vegas Free Pick and Prediction

Kansas City is pissed off, it's that simple. Andy Reid has the best team in the NFL and now they are entering 
this game with a fire under their ass. The Chiefs will not be lackluster in this one against the Raiders like they were last time.

Sure, Oakland can run and the Chiefs struggle against the run. That is the only advantage Las Vegas really has. They can try and keep Mahomes off of the field but I expect the Chiefs defense to make some adjustments and stop the run better in this game.

Kansas City’s offense is going to explode in this one. Mahomes fantasy owners should be in for a big day. Las Vegas did the one thing you don’t do to the best team and the best player in the NFL, show-off after getting an upset win. Now, there will be no mercy.

Chiefs show they are the NFL’s best team and will decimate the Raiders in this game. Get your bet in because the spread is climbing, as it should. Raiders get put in their place tonight.

***Pick: Kansas City-7***

(Published YTD Results: 12-6 💰)

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Free Sunday Night Pick

Thanks to glorious MAC football, we are in the middle of enjoying nearly a month-straight of daily football. That continues on Wednesday night as the Toledo Rockets (1-1) will take on the Eastern Michigan Eagles (0-2)

### Toledo Betting Analysis

The Toledo Rockets were a popular non-favorite betting choice for the MAC title this season. They opened their season with a blowout win over Bowling Green (the worst FBS team in the country) 38-3. Then, they dropped a heart-breaking loss to Western Michigan 41-38 after an onside-kick recovery and fake-spike gaming-winning touchdown with 17 seconds left.

The Rockets’ offense spends a lot of time on the field. They are second in the country in time on the field and also third in plays ran. However, a lot of that can be contributed to the fact that they played Bowling Green. So while they are top 25 in the country in passing offense, rushing offense, and points scored (all per game), how much can we really trust those numbers?

The same could be said about their 33rd-ranked defense. When one of your two games comes against the worst FBS team in the country, it’s hard to trust statistics like that.

### Eastern Michigan Betting Analysis

Unlike Toledo, Eastern Michigan has played two of the MAC’s better teams. They lost them both in close fashion. They lost to Kent State 27-23 and Ball State 38-31. Both of which were expected to be among the best in the MAC behind Buffalo. The Eagles played them both well.

So when you see Eastern Michigan has the 77th-ranked offense and 83rd-ranked defense through two games, the same could be said about their numbers like Toledo’s. With Toledo, it is hard to trust how good their numbers are. With Eastern Michigan, it is hard to fault them for those numbers. It’s all about strength of schedule thus far, which EMU leads by a mile.

## Toledo vs Eastern Michigan Free Pick and Prediction

Toledo likes to have quarterback Eli Peters throw a lot (78 times in two games). He torched Bowling Green, but wasn’t that  impressive against a vulnerable Western Michigan defense (30/46 339 yards, 1TD, 1INT). Running back Bryant Koback is averaging 22.5 carries but just 76 yards per game (3.4 YPC).  So while Toledo’s offense may have good numbers, they really don’t look to be that great, especially considering their opponents.

EMU quarterback Preston Hutchinson hasn’t been great this season (491 passing yards, 3TD, 2INT) but he has been solid, considering the quality of opponents. He also showed in his last game against Ball State that he is capable of being a runner as well (104 rush yards). 

In this matchup, you have to look deeper than the numbers. Toledo outshines EMU in every category, fairly significantly. However, you got to realize that Toledo played BG and a WMU team that can be scored on. EMU has played two of the best teams not named Buffalo in the MAC.

EMU is a solid looking team by MAC standards. Toledo is likely a solid team as well. In fact, these are probably two very equal teams when it's all said and done. That is why you want the points in this one. EMU very easily can win this game and show that they are the better team. At the very least, with +7, we should see a push if we don’t cover.

***Pick: Eastern Michigan +7***

(Published YTD Results: 12-6 💰)

Wednesday MAC-Tion Free Betting Pick: Toledo vs  Eastern Michigan

This week’s Monday Night Football is an NFC North battle as the Minnesota Vikings (3-5) take on the Chicago Bears (5-4). The Vikings have won their last two games while the Bears are on a three-game skid.

### Minnesota Betting Analysis

Minnesota can only do one thing, run the ball. Dalvin Cook is arguably the best running back in the league right now. The Vikings offensive line has been a good run blocking unit but not as great in pass blocking.

Kirk Cousins is having a somewhat decent season, at least by his standards. Justin Jefferson is a great WR2 alongside Adam Thielen but the Vikings pass offense is just 25th in the league. For comparison, they are the third-best rushing team.

The Vikings defense is nothing like it has been in recent years. They allow the third-most total yards and passing yards per game. They also allow the eighth-most points per game in the league.
Long story short, the Vikings have to be able to run the ball to be effective.

### Chicago Betting Analysis

The Chicago Bears offense is the equivalent of a mustard sandwich, it's terrible. They are 28th in yards per game and they are the league’s worst rushing team. As a result, they are the league’s fourth-lowest scoring team.

The Bears defense isn’t as elite as it has been in the past, but it is still a very good unit. They allow the ninth-fewest yards per game and are seventh against the rush and 14th against the pass. Chicago allows the seventh-fewest points per game and they are the best third-down defense in the NFL.
Fortunately for the Bears and their fans, Matt Nagy has handed over play-calling duties to OC Bill Lazor. Since Matt Nagy couldn’t run a junior high offense, this should immediately make the Bears offense better somehow, since it can’t make it any worse.

## Minnesota vs Chicago Free Pick and Prediction

Chicago isn’t the best run defense in the NFL (14th) but they aren’t bad. The Vikings are “hot” because they played two teams with some of the worst run defenses in the NFL (Green Bay and Detroit). Against a Bears run defense that is above average, the Vikings are going to struggle on offense. 

The Bears offense is garbage but so is the Vikings defense. With some new play calling, maybe the Bears can be better on offense now. Don’t take the Vikings because the media is hyping them up as a hot team right now. Don’t be a sheep. Be a Bear (Ba Dum Tss).

***Pick: Chicago +3***

(Published YTD Results: 12-5 💰)

Minnesota Vikings  vs Chicago Bears - Monday Night Football Free Pick

This week’s matchup between Penn State (0-3) and Nebraska (0-2) is a contest by two teams that are a surprising 0-5. Penn State began the season ranked in the Top 10, which now seems laughable. Nebraska is more understandably winless as they played Ohio State and a tough Northwestern team that they played fairly close.

### Penn State Betting Analysis

Penn State opened the season at #8 and immediately from the start of the first game that looked like an over-ranking. They found themselves down 17-7 against Indiana and eventually went on to lose the game in exciting fashion in overtime. Then, they lost to Ohio State by two touchdowns and it appeared the wheels have completely come off as they then suffered their largest defeat to a questionable Maryland team.

Quarterback Sean Clifford has thrown for nine touchdowns but he also has five interceptions and has been sacked 12 times in the last two games. The offense clearly runs through him as the Penn State rushing attack has been terrible. Clifford is also the team's leading rusher.
The Penn State defense has been getting knocked around all season. They have allowed at least 35 points in every game. 

### Nebraska Betting Analysis

Once again, the Nebraska Cornhuskers were expecting a big year out of their offense and quarterback Adrian Martinez. Their first drive of the season looked promising as they marched down the field and scored a touchdown against Ohio State. Since then, it hasn’t been very promising.

Martinez is just 24/42 for 230 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. However he does have 179 rushing yards. Dedrick Mills is the team's traditional running back but hasn’t gotten much production on his 29 carries. Luke McCaffrey (Christian’s brother) works as a Taysom Hill type player who is listed as a quarterback but does more damage as a runner and can be a playmaker.

Nebraska’s defense has trouble stopping teams on the ground. While they did hold Northwestern to 21 points, that was due in large part to two interceptions they forced. Team’s can certainly move the ball on this defense.

## Penn State vs Nebraska Free Pick and Prediction

It is hard to gage how bad this Penn State team really is. They suffered a heartbreaking loss to a good Indiana team and then lost to a very good Ohio State. The Maryland game was perhaps a hangover performance. One thing we do know, teams can score on Penn State and Penn State can score as well.
Clifford should have a big game for the Nittany Lions. Expect him to move the ball a lot with his legs. At 0-3 we are going to see what this Penn State team is made of. Expect them to have their foot on the gas all game as they look to score on every possession to try and build some confidence going forward.

Don’t sleep on the Nebraska offense. They can move the ball too and should be able to in this game. This should be a back-and-forth type game with either team capable of pulling away late. We want the total in this one, not the spread.

Penn State’s offense should put up points and Nebraska should keep pace as well, maybe even pulling off a win. Roll with the over in what should be a high-scoring game.

Pick: Over 56

Published YTD Results: (11-4) 💰


College Football Saturday Early Game Free Pick: Penn State vs Nebraska

A big American Athletic Conference matchup is scheduled for Saturday night as the #19 SMU Mustangs (7-1) take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-1). This is a big game for both teams to try and keep pace in the American with undefeated #7 Cincinnati.

### SMU Betting Analysis

SMU likes to operate a fast-paced air-it-out type offense. While that helps them put up big numbers against weak opponents, we saw this season it isn’t exactly the most effective against good teams.

A couple weeks ago, Cincinnati held SMU to just 13 points. We also some some other weeks where the offense didn’t quite perform like it should have, like 31 points against Texas State and 30 against a weak Memphis defense.

Defensively, the Mustangs allow a lot of points. Think of SMU sort of like the Seattle Seahawks. Their defense is never going to win them a game, their offense needs to carry the load and if they run into a decent enough defense, they are in trouble.

### Tulsa Betting Analysis

Tulsa is a team that has a good defense and a surprisingly solid offense as well. Tulsa held Oklahoma State to just 16 points, but suffered their only loss as their offense managed just seven points. They held the offensive juggernaut UCF to just 26 points, USF to 13 points and an ECU offense that put up points to just 30.

Tulsa’s offense is solid and can run and pass the ball decently well. Quarterback Zach Smith is having a pretty good season but needs to limit his interceptions (5). The Golden Hurricane have two running backs in Deneric Prince and T.K. Wilkerson who can both be big factors in their offense.
SMU vs Tulsa Free Pick and Prediction
Tulsa’s defense is the second-best in the AAC behind a stout Cincinnati defense. They should be able to limit the potent SMU offense as well as any team in the conference, other than the Bearcats. While they may not dominante them as well as Cincy did, Tulsa should be able to give SMU one of their toughest challenges of the season.

Tulsa can also put up points on offense. If Smith can hold on to the ball, they should be able to get a comfortable win against SMU. Regardless of Smith’s performance, I like Tulsa’s defense to help them get the win in this one. The Tulsa offense can also control the clock on the ground and dictate the pace in this game.

Ignore SMU’s ranking, Tulsa is the better team and should get the win at home.

***Pick: Tulsa-1***

Published YTD Results: (11-4) 💰


College Football Saturday Late Game Free Pick: SMU vs Tulsa

This week’s Thursday Night Football game will be a big one in deciding who wins the AFC South this season. The Indianapolis Colts (5-3), fresh off a loss to the Baltimore Ravens, will take on the Tennessee Titans (6-2), who took down the Chicago Bears last week.

### Colts Betting Analysis

Heading into the 2020 season, the Indianapolis Colts were a sleeper Super Bowl team to some people (including myself). So far halfway through the season, they have been hit or miss. A lot of the reasoning has been quarterback Philip Rivers and the offense.
The Colts defense has been what we expected it to be. They allow the fewest total yards per game and they rank third against both the pass and the rush. Indianapolis also allows the third-fewest points per game. 

Rivers has been having an up and down year that has resulted in the Colts owning the 14th-ranked pass offense. Jonathan Taylor has taken over the backfield but the Colts rushing attack ranks just 22nd in the league and Taylor is struggling to hold on to the ball. Overall, the Colts are 15th in points scored per game.
If the Colts are going to make a legit run this season, the offense needs to get it together.

### Titans Betting Analysis

The Tennessee Titans are sitting in the opposite scenario of the Indianapolis Colts. Their offense has been their strength while their defense has struggled.

Everyone knows the Titans’ offense is run-first, particularly Derrick Henry first. They own the league’s sixth-best rushing attack. Ryan Tannehill has plenty of weapons in his offense to throw to, including the league’s most underrated receiver in A.J. Brown. Still, the Titans rank just 20th in passing offense. Tennessee is seventh in the league in points per game.

The Titans’ defense is the worst in the league in getting off of the field on third down. They struggle more against the pass (27th) than they do against the run (17th). Overall, they rank 15th in points allowed per game.
The Titans defense needs to start playing better if they want to compete with the elite in the AFC.

## Indianapolis vs Tennessee Free Pick and Prediction

This is the first meeting between the two teams this season, with the second coming 17 days later. The Titans two losses have come against teams that can throw the ball well (Cincinnati and Pittsburgh). For Indianapolis to win this game, they are going to need Philip Rivers to have a good game and move the ball through the air.

The game plan for the Colts will be to stop Derrick Henry (or at least try). Once they start to get Tannehill to throw, they have to be able to slow down A.J. Brown. Doing those two things isn’t an easy task for most teams, but most teams don’t have a defense like the Colts.

Indianapolis must hold on to the ball in this game. After a fumble last week that may have cost them the game, the Colts should be focussing on ball security all week. Assuming Taylor can hold on to the ball, the Colts offense should be able to move the ball against this Titans’ defense.

Look for Rivers to have one of his better games of the year in this one. The Colts were favored last week against the Ravens. If not for Taylor’s fumble, they have a great shot at winning that game and would be favored in this one. Take the Colts plus the points.

***Pick: Colts+2***

(Published YTD Results: 10-4 💰)

Thursday Night Football Free Pick: Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-1) will take on the (3) Ohio State Buckeyes this Saturday afternoon. Rutgers opened their season with an upset win over Michigan State 38-27 and then followed that up with a loss to Indiana 37-21. Ohio State opened their season with a blowout win over Nebraska by a score of 52-17. They followed that up with a win over Penn State 38-25.

### Rutgers Betting Analysis

Rutgers surprised some (not all) when they opened their season with an upset win over Michigan State. After a 2-10 season last year that saw them go 0-9 in the Big Ten, Rutgers is already off to a better conference record than last season.

This year, Rutgers is a team that you should be following to bet on. Typically a disaster the last decade or so, they should actually be a fairly decent squad this year and cover big spreads like the one in this game.
It's been just two games but Rutgers have some fairly respectable stats thus far. The are in the middle-of-the-pack in points per game (59th), which is a huge improvement from last season already. Despite being 89th in points allowed per game, they are 20th against the rush (although 108th against the pass). Overall, they rank a very solid 38th in yards per play allowed.

### Ohio State Betting Analysis

Ohio State is once again getting College Football Playoff hype this season. Quarterback Justin Fields is a Heisman favorite for a lot of people, as he should be. The Big Ten is Ohio State’s to lose for sure.

The Buckeyes are certainly one of the best teams in the country. However, their defense has lost a lot of major pieces from last season. While still talented, the Ohio State defense isn’t exactly elite like it has been in recent years.

The Buckeyes are 37th in points allowed per game. They are also 57th against the pass and 56th against the rush. Perhaps the most surprising defensive stat is that they allow 6.21 yards per play (101st in the country).

## Rutgers vs Ohio State Free Pick and Prediction

Ohio State’s offense isn’t going to have trouble scoring in this game. In fact, I’d be surprised to see more than one punt from the Buckeyes in this game. However, don’t sleep on the Scarlet Knights.

While Rutgers still isn’t exactly a good team, they are certainly a better team than last year and most recent years. A spread reaching nearly 40 points almost seems disrespectful. This is one that casual bettors will see and hop on Ohio State thinking that Rutgers is just another walkover.

So while Ohio State will have no problem scoring enough points to make a cover possible, I’m trusting in Rutgers’ offense to score enough points to cover and help push this game over. 

Rutgers has put up nearly 30 points per game so far this season. Against an Ohio State defense that isn’t as elite as some people expect it to be, they should be able to put up at least two touchdowns in this game. 
Take both Rutgers+39 as well as the over 64. Ohio State could certainly score 56+ points in this game and find a cheap cover at the end, but I don’t think they do that. If they do, at least you will have the over to back you as well and make this one a wash.

***Pick: Rutgers+39 and Over 64***

Published YTD Results: (7-2) 💰

College Football Free Pick Saturday: Rutgers vs Ohio  State

This Thursday night, we get two college football games to take in. With the NFL game possibly in jeopardy due to COVID, Thursday’s best bet comes out of the Mountain West Conference. The Wyoming Cowboys (1-1) will take on the Colorado State Rams (0-1) in the Border War.

### Wyoming Betting Analysis

Wyoming opened their season two weeks ago with a 37-34 loss to Nevada. The Cowboy’s defense looked like the Dallas Cowboys defense as they allowed nearly 500 total yards (420 through the air). However, as we anticipated in one of our free picks last week, Wyoming bounced back with a strong defensive performance against Hawaii and covered with ease.

While Wyoming’s defense improved from the first game of the season, so did their offense. Wyoming ran for 281 yards against Hawaii and were 8-15 on third down (also 1-1 on fourth down).
Wyoming showed in their game against Hawaii that they have a two-headed rushing attack in Xazavian Valladay (32 rush 163 yards 2TD) and Trey Smith (20 rush 89 yards 2TD. They also showed in their opener that they aren’t afraid to throw the ball either, as quarterback Levi Williams threw the ball 31 times to help mount a fourth-quarter comeback.

While the defense is of course a solid unit, don’t sleep on the Wyoming offense.

### Colorado State Betting Analysis

Much like Wyoming, Colorado State underperformed in their season opener. The Rams were expected to debut a new potent offense under former Boston College coach Steve Addazio. However, the Rams offense didn’t perform to expectations as they put up just 17 points.

The Rams defense wasn’t any better in their first game as they allowed 432 total yards (348 through the air). They also allowed Fresno State to convert 10-18 on third down and 2-2 on fourth down. The Rams went on to lose the game 38-17.

Quarterback Todd Centeio got the start for the Rams against Fresno State and put together a relatively poor performance (10/23 141 yards). Patrick O’Brien eventually came in to replace Centeio and put together a solid performance (7/10 82 yards 1TD).

Heading into the Border War, Addazio has yet to announce a starter. However, based on the last game, it is likely O’Brien will get the nod, as he should.

## Wyoming vs Colorado State Free Pick and Prediction

This seems like a game that Wyoming should win (and cover) based on their performance against Hawaii and Colorado State’s performance against Fresno State. Although, I expect a much better performance from Colorado State in this game, which makes the spread scary.
It was hard to expect Colorado State to come out with this magically potent offense under a new head coach running a new scheme in their first game, especially considering the limited offseason teams have had this year due to COVID. After a week of on-field experience and time to critique, I expect the Rams’ offense to perform much better in this game.

I could see this game going either way but one thing I do expect is this to be a back-and-forth game. Look for Colorado State to run a lot of fast-tempo offense that gives a solid Wyoming defense a bit of trouble. Wyoming can score on the ground well but they can also throw when they have to, which is likely to be the case in this game.

Avoid the tricky spread here and instead, bank on the Over as both offenses should have good games.

***Pick: Over 52.5***

Published YTD Results: (6-2) :moneybag:


College Football Free Pick Thursday: Wyoming vs  Colorado State

The Tampa Bay Bucs (5-2) will take their two-game win streak on the road to face the New York Giants (1-6). The Bucs head into this showdown coming off of a 45-20 win against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Giants are coming off of a close loss to divisional rival Philadelphia Eagles 22-21.

### Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths:

- 8th in Pass Offense (266.1 YPG)
- 3rd in Points Scored (31.7 PPG)
- 3rd in Total Yards Allowed (319.0 YPG)
- 9th in Pass Defense (225.3 YPG)
- Best in Rush Defense (66.0 YPG)
- 8th in Points Allowed (20.3 PPG)

Weaknesses:

- 17th in Total Offense (378.6 YPG)
- 21st in Rush Offense (105.7 YPG)

### New York Giants Betting Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths:

- 8th in Rush Defense (105.0 YPG)
- 14th in Points Allowed (24.9 PPG)

Weaknesses:

- 31st in Total Offense (299.6 YPG)
- 30th in Pass Offense (184.3 YPG)
- 27th in Rush Offense (98.1 YPG)
- 31st in Points Scored (17.4 PPG)
- 21st in Pass Defense (251.3 YPG)
- 27th in 3rd-Down Defense (50.5%)

## Tampa Bay vs New York Free Pick and Prediction

When you look at this game, you are probably thinking these Giants have a snowball’s chance in hell of even keeping this game interesting. Well, you’re probably right. Their offense is the second-worst in the league (only better than cross-town rival New York Jets) and their defense, while playing surprisingly better this season, still isn’t very good.

Tampa Bay should blow this game out of the water and not even break a sweat. However, the keyword is should. This is the NFL, not everything turns out how it should. In fact, it’s usually the opposite.

This is a David v. Goliath meeting, no doubt. Daniel Jones hasn’t seen the improvement this season we were expecting, Saquon Barkley was lost for the season, and the Giants just haven’t ever really had a chance to be a good team this season. Tampa, on the other hand, is starting to become a Super Bowl favorite again.

As of Sunday night, less than 30% of the money is on the Giants and almost 60% of people are on the Over. The spread opened at TB-11 at most books and has now climbed over a dozen. The total has dropped from 47.5 to 44.5.

Tampa Bay should win this game by at least two touchdowns no problem. However, this just has the feel of the type of game where the Bucs underperform and the Giants actually have some fight in them. 

Tampa’s offense really isn’t that good. It's solid, but not that good. Defensive penalties have aided A LOT of their offensive drives this season. Their offense will be the reason they lose come playoff time. The Giants’ defense is a decent enough unit that I think they do better than most viewers would expect in this game.

Common sense would push you towards the Bucs in this one but I’m not common sense. As you can see below (Published YTD Results), betting as a contrarian has its benefits so let’s stay the course. Go ahead, bet the Bucs like you want to, I’ll be on the Giants in one of those games that people end up saying is “rigged” when they end up with a late cover.

***Pick: Giants +12.5***

(Published YTD Results: 5-1)


Monday Night Football Week 8 Free Pick: Tampa Bay  Buccaneers vs New York Giants

The Dallas Cowboys (2-5) will take on divisional rival Philadelphia Eagles (2-4-1) on
Sunday Night Football. Dallas is now on a two-game losing streak after being
embarrassed by the Washington Football Team 25-3. The Eagles are coming off of a
22-21 win against the New York Giants.

### Dallas Cowboys Strength and Weaknesses

Strengths:
 
- Ezekiel Elliot (when he doesn’t fumble)
- Most run offensive plays in the NFL
- Pretty much nothing else

Weaknesses:
- Defense
- Third-string QB
- Most point allowed in NFL
- Worst rush defense in NFL
- Defense again

### Philadelphia Eagles Strength and Weaknesses

Strengths:
-  9th-Ranked Pass Defense
- 10th in Yards Per Play Defensively

Weaknesses:

- 24th in Scoring
- 22nd Pass Offense
- 22nd Points Allowed
- 26th Rush Defense
- Receiver Depth

## Dallas vs Philadelphia Thursday Night Free Betting Pick

Like every other NFC East game this season, this is a battle of what team is the least
pathetic. The winner of this division is likely to have 6-7 wins and this one could go a
long way in deciding who wins this division.
The Cowboys will be rolling with third-string QB Ben Dinucci after Andy Dalton was
almost decapitated last week. That means we will see a heavy dose of Zeke and a lot of
check down and short passes.

Very few people will be putting money on Dallas in this game, which is good news for
us. Dinucci actually looked decent in his limited time at the end of the game against
Washington. Is he going to be a good QB? Probably not. However, he is good enough
to get us a cover in this game.

The Cowboys are a disaster but so are the Eagles. Philadelphia’s offense struggles and
their defense is bad against the run. Zeke is one of the best backs in the league and he
should have a good day in a game where he is relied on heavily.
This is a big game for Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys. All Dinucci has to do is not
throw interceptions and just put up a decent game checking the ball down and letting
Zeke do his job.

Vegas has the total in this one really low at 43 points. That means we are going to see a
sloppy low-scoring game. A lot of running between these two will help keep this low-
scoring and also help keep Dallas close enough to get a cover.
Does Dallas win? Unlikely, but I do trust Dinucci to not be the worst quarterback in the
world and actually get the cover in this one. This is a perfect example of a contrarian
bet.

***Pick: Cowboys +11***

(YTD Results: 4-0 :moneybag:)

Sunday Night Football Week 8 Free Pick: Dallas  Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

It’s now technically Week 9 in the college football season. We are finally back to near full lineups of college games on Saturdays again. That means we have plenty of games to choose from each week to find out favorite bets. This week, the best Saturday college back comes out of the SEC as Missouri heads to Gainesville to take on Florida.

## Missouri Betting Analysis

After opening their season 0-2, the Missouri Tigers have won their last two games to even their record at 2-2 as they look to become bowl eligible this season. 

Opening your season with a 38-19 loss to Alabama is nothing to be ashamed of. At the time, neither was losing 35-12 to Tennessee. Now it turns out Tennessee is not the team experts thought they were as they are now 2-3 and among the bottom feeders of the SEC East.

The two wins for the Tigers were a 45-41 win against a terrible LSU defense and a 20-10 win against a bad Kentucky offense. Against an offense like Florida, Missouri will have their hands full trying to keep up. Quarterback Connor Bazelak will need another performance like the one he had against LSU to keep Missouri in this one.

## Florida Betting Analysis

The Florida Gators are coming off of a bye week and sitting at 2-1. If not for a late game collapse, the Gators would be sitting at 3-0 and likely ranked in the top 5. In their three games against Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Texas A&M, the Gators are averaging over 42 points a game.

Quarterback Kyle Trask is currently among the Heisman favorites through his three games. Trask has 14 touchdown passes to go along with 996 passing yards. Trask’s most dangerous weapon is Kyle Pitts, arguably the nation’s best tight end.

The Florida defense has been an issue through three games. However, Ole Miss and Texas A&M both have high-powered offenses. Against South Carolina, a team that doesn’t have an explosive offense, the Gators held them to a modest 24 points.

## Missouri vs Florida Free Pick and Prediction

Florida will have no trouble scoring in this game. Missouri may be able to keep up early but it is hard to expect that offense to keep up with the Gators for 60 minutes. Bazelak will need a career game if Missouri is going to keep this one close.

The Gators are coming in at less than two-touchdown favorites. The total in this one is floating around 61. After a bye week, look for Florida to come out ready to pounce after choking away their last game. This time, Florida will make sure to keep their foot on the gas and not give Missouri a chance to win.

Roll with the Gators and the Over in what should be a high-scoring game with Florida being very efficient offensively.

***Gators -12.5 and OVER 61.5***


College Football Free Pick Saturday: Missouri vs Florida

With most of the major football conferences now in action, we are being treated to football 5-6 days. Once the MAC begins, we will be seeing football seven days a week with Tuesday MACtion. For this Friday, we are actually getting three NCAAF games. The one you should be betting on is the late game between Hawaii and Wyoming.

### Hawaii Betting Analysis

Hawaii opened their season with a win last week against Fresno State 34-19. A close game at the half, Hawaii managed to pull away by outscoring Fresno State 17-6 in the second half. Traditionally, Hawaii has always been a pass heavy team. However, in their game against Fresno State, the Rainbow Warriors managed to put up 323 yards on the ground. Hawaii had four different players average at least 5.2 yards per carry, including quarterback Chevan Cordeiro who had 116 yards on 13 carries (8.9 YPC).

Hawaii benefited from forcing four turnovers, three of them interceptions on quarterback Jake Haener. Despite forcing four turnovers, the Hawaii defense still surrendered 409 total yards. Another key factor in this game was Hawaii’s ability to convert third-downs, going 11-16.

### Wyoming Betting Analysis

The Wyoming Cowboys were favored to start their season 1-0 last week when they played the Nevada Wolf Pack. However, Wyoming ended up losing the game 37-34 in overtime. The Cowboys did well to even force overtime by outscoring Nevada 18-3 in the fourth quarter, including a last second field goal to tie the game.

Wyoming struggled offensively in the first half, only scoring six points. Overall, the Cowboys managed just 361 total yards in the game. They struggled mightily on third down, converting just 3-16. Defensively the Cowboys were torched by Nevada quarterback Carson Strong who threw for 420 yards and four touchdowns. Despite an overall bad performance, the Cowboys almost walked away with a win in this one.

## Hawaii vs Wyoming Free Pick and Prediction

The Rainbow Warriors ‘ offense appears to be operating a little different this year, at least through one game. The Run-N-Gun offense appears to be a little more run heavy with Cordeiro popping off 13 rushes. While Wyoming did struggle against the pass in their first game, they only allowed 76 rushing yards.

Wyoming played what was likely their worst game statistically all season. The one silver lining in their performance was their determination and will to get back into the game to force overtime and almost steal a win. This week, look for the Cowboys to come out with a better performance and play up to their expectations in this one.

Trust in the Wyoming defense to play better against the pass in this game. They should be able to limit Cordeiro on the ground and force him to do more with his arm. Offensively, Wyoming should be able to control this game with their run offense against a Hawaii defense that is just as vulnerable, if not more vulnerable than their own. Roll with the Cowboys at home as they improve drastically from their first game of the season.

***Pick: Wyoming-1***

College Football Free Pick Friday: Hawaii vs Wyoming

The Atlanta Falcons (1-6) will head to Carolina to take on the Panthers (3-4) on Thursday Night Football. Last week, the Falcons blew yet another game late as they fell to the Detroit Lions 23-22. The Panthers enter this game on a two-game losing streak after losing to the New Orleans Saints 27-24.

### Atlanta Falcons Strength and Weaknesses

Strengths:

- 4th in Total Offense (417.0 YPG)
- 3rd in Passing Offense (295.6 YPG)
- 6th in Rush Defense (92.4 YPG)
- Receiving Group 

Weaknesses:

- 20th in Rush Offense (105.4 YPG)
- 31st in Total Yards Allowed (436.9 YPG)
- 31st in Pass Yards Allowed (333.4 YPG)
- 26th in Points Allowed (29.6 PPG)
- Entire Defense

### Carolina Panthers Strength and Weaknesses

Strengths:

- 11th in Passing Offense (263.7 YPG)
- 8th in 3rd Down Conversion (46.9%)
- 9th in Total Yards Allowed (356.9 YPG)
- 10th in Passing Yards Allowed (227.1 YPG)

Weaknesses:

- 17th in Total Yards (381.1 YPG)
- 20th in Rush Offense (105.4 YPG)
- 25th in Points Scored (23.1 PPG)
- 18th in Rushing Yards Allowed (124.0 YPG)
- 31st in 3rd Down Defense (56.3%)

## Atlanta vs Carolina Thursday Night Free Betting Pick

The Falcons could very easily be 4-3 right now and right in the playoff mix if not for some epic late game collapses by their defense. The Falcons offense can compete with some of the league’s best on most nights. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are arguably the best WR duo in the league and Matt Ryan is having an excellent season himself.

While Todd Gurley isn’t getting much attention, he is also having a good season with four yards per carry (485 total rushing yards) and seven touchdowns. Altogether, this offense is very good and can help the Falcons win against almost any opponent. It’s just a matter of the defense playing a little less terrible.

The Panthers have lost their fair share of close games as well and could also be sitting on a better record. However, for the Panthers, it’s not their defense but their offense that has struggled the most. The Panthers are scoring the eighth-fewest points per game in the league.

Losing Christian McCaffrey was certainly a blow but the Panthers actually did well without him, getting to a record of 3-2. Teddy Bridgewater is a solid game-managing quarterback but unlike Matt Ryan, it is hard to expect him to throw for big numbers to win high-scoring games. 

The Panthers won this matchup earlier this season 23-16 in Bridgewater’s best game of the season. Ryan had his worst game of the season and Julio Jones was out that game. This time around, look for the Falcons offense to perform better with Jones on the field. Hopefully, the defenses can hold onto this one.

***Pick: Falcons+2.5***

(YTD Results: 2-0 :money:)

Thursday Night Football Week 8 Free Pick: Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers

The Chicago Bears (5-1) will take on the Los Angeles Rams (4-2) this week on Monday Night Football. The Bears enter this contest on a two-game winning streak after taking down the Carolina Panthers (23-16). The Rams saw their two-game winning streak end last week with a loss on the road against the San Francisco 49ers (24-16).

## Chicago Bears Season Recap

Chicago has been a bit of a surprise this year as they have started their season 5-1. They opened their season with a 27-23 victory over the Detroit Lions thanks to a 21-0 fourth quarter. In Week 2, Chicago took on the New York Giants and managed to win a low-scoring game by a score of 17-13. Then, the Bears managed to win their highest-scoring game of the season in Week 3 against the Atlanta Falcons 30-26.

Nick Foles took over for Mitchell Trubisky in the middle of that Week 3 game against the Falcons. Foles helped lead the Bears offense to a comeback in that game when they were trailing 26-10 in the fourth. Since taking over for Trubisky, the Bears&#39; offense really hasn&#39;t been any better or worse as they still struggle to score most weeks.

After their 3-0 start, the Bears ran into the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4 and suffered their first loss of the season. Chicago only managed to score 11 points, with eight of them coming on a garbage touchdown in the final two minutes of the game. Chicago lost that game 19-11. Chicago rebounded with two big wins against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20-19) and the Carolina Panthers (23-16) the following two weeks thanks to Foles playing just good enough to get his team the win.

### Bears Strengths and Weaknesses

The Bears have a pretty obvious strength in their defense and an even more obvious weakness in their defense. Think of Chicago as being the opposite of the Seattle Seahawks. They can&#39;t rely on their offense to win against high-scoring opponents but their defense gives them a chance to win every week.

**Strengths:**

- 7th Total Defense (352.2 YPG)
- 7th Points Allowed (19.3 PPG)
- 3rd-Down Defense (31.8%)
- Pass Rush
- Secondary

**Weaknesses:**

- 29th Total Offense (329.7 YPG)
- 24th Passing Offense (222.8 YPG)
- 29th Rush Offense (90.0 YPG)
- 27th Points Scored (21.3 PPG)
- 27th 3rd-Down (36.3%)
- Nick Foles Too Inconsistent

## Los Angeles Rams Season Recap

After finishing 9-7 last year, the Rams opened their season with two wins against the NFC East. They took down the Dallas Cowboys 20-17 in Week 1 and then the Philadelphia Eagles 37-19 in Week 2. While holding the Eagles to 19 points may not be the most impressive thing in the world, holding what would become the league&#39;s best offense in Dallas to 17 points is.

However, in Week 3, the Rams&#39; defense was torched by the Buffalo Bills. L.A. allowed 35 points to Buffalo. Almost mounting a 25-point comeback, the Rams ultimately fell 35-32 when Buffalo marched down the field for 80 yards over the final five minutes to score the game winning touchdown with 14 seconds left.

After their first loss of the year, the Rams rebounded with two more wins against the NFC East. They took down the New York Giants in Week 4 by a score of 17-9 and then the Washington Football Team in Week 5 30-10. After their 4-1 start, the Rams lost to their divisional foe San Francisco 24-16.

## Rams Strengths and Weaknesses

The Los Angeles Rams have been a fairly balanced team this season. They have a solid statistical offense and a top tier defense. Aaron Donald alone is a major strength as he himself is the biggest defensive game changer in the NFL. Offensively, the Rams are a good unit, at least statistically, but they also tend to go through droughts.

**Strengths:**

- 10th Total Offense (396.8 YPG)
- 10th Rush Offense (135.2 YPG)
- 9th 3rd Down (46.8%)
- 5th Total Defense (340.3 YPG)
- 4th Pass Defense (209.5 YPG)
- 5th Points Allowed (19.0 PPG)
- 6th 3rd-Down Defense (35.6%)
- Aaron Donald

**Weaknesses:**

- Finishing Drives
- 19th Points Scored (25.3 PPG)
- Takeaways
- Offense Can Stall at Times
- Receiver Depth and Size

## Rams vs Bears Monday Night Free Pick Prediction

A low-scoring game is expected Monday night and that should be just what we get. Between the Bears&#39; terrible offense and both teams possessing Top 10 defenses, points could be at a premium. A lot of people are also quick to point out that all of the Rams&#39; wins have come against the NFC East, which has just six wins of its own (four amongst each other).

That may be true, that the Rams have only won against the NFL&#39;s worst division. However, they managed to hold that Cowboys offense to just 17 points and then they blew out Philadelphia and Washington, who both have somewhat decent defenses. The Rams almost mounted a 25-point comeback in Buffalo against a very good Bills&#39; team, only losing by three. A second loss coming against a tough divisional opponent at San Francisco is nothing to be ashamed of either. When you look at their whole schedule, so far, only the Giants game raises the biggest question mark and they still managed an eight-point victory.

So while everyone may be quick to go against the Rams in this one, that may not be the smart move. Los Angeles is a far better offensive team than Chicago and their defense is statistically better as well. The Rams also have a better offensive line, which should do better stopping the Bears&#39; pass rush compared to the Bears&#39; offensive line stopping Donald and company.

The under isn&#39;t a bad bet in this one but taking the Rams and laying the points may be a better one. Chicago shouldn&#39;t be scoring much in this game but there is a decent change the Rams offense could score enough to push this game over. We could even see a defensive score in this game from either side that could really hurt under bettors.

Instead, the Rams -5.5 should be the safer bet here. While both teams have good defenses, the Bear&#39;s offense is a trainwreck. Foles is too inconsistent for this Bears&#39; team to make a legit Super Bowl run this year. In games like this, against a defense like the Rams, Foles should be in for a long night. The Rams&#39; offense can stall at times but it is also capable of going off any given night. After a subpar performance last week against a divisional foe, look for the Rams to get a statement win on Monday night on national TV and cover in the process.

***Pick: Rams-5.5***

Monday Night Football Free Pick: Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams

The Seattle Seahawks (5-0) will take on the Arizona Cardinals (4-2) on Sunday Night Football. Seattle is coming off of a bye week after narrowly escaping the Minnesota Vikings 27-26 the week prior. Arizona has now won its last two games after destroying the Dallas Cowboys 38-10. For both teams, this will be a big game that will not only go a long way in helping decide the NFC West, but also in playoff seeding and whether or not Arizona can find a way into the playoffs this season.

### Seattle Seahawks Season Recap

The Seahawks are the last remaining undefeated team in the NFC. Sitting atop the NFC West, two games ahead of Arizona, Seattle has seen its fair share of close games. After taking down the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1 by a score of 38-25, their next four games were all decided by one possession.

Seattle edged out the New England Patriots in Week 2 35-30 thanks to a last minute goal-line stand. In Week 3, trailing by 1 with under two minutes to go, Russell Wilson connected with D.K. Metcalf for the game winning touchdown to take down Dallas 38-31. 

Week 4 turned out to be a tougher than expected contest against the Miami Dolphins. Eventually, Seattle would go on to win that game 31-23, holding off a late rally. Then, in Week 5, the Seahawks had their closest game of the season against the Vikings. After trailing 13-0 at the half, Seattle scored 21 points in the third quarter to help get a 27-26 victory.

## Seahawks Strengths and Weaknesses

If you take a quick look at the Seahawks statistics and box scores, it is pretty easy to see where Seattle is strong and where they struggle. In simple terms, their offense is their strength and their defense is their weakness.

**Strengths:**

* Deep Passing Plays
* Strong WR Group
* Russell Wilson
* 5th Total Offense (415.8 YPG)
* 4th Passing Offense (280.4 YPG)
* Highest-Scoring Team (33.8 PPG)
* 7th Rushing Defense (100.8)
* Turnover Differential (+6)

**Weaknesses:**

* Secondary
* 31st 3rd-Down Offense (32.6%)
* Worst Total Defense (477.4 YPG)
* Worst Passing Defense (370.4 YPG)
* 18th Points Allowed (27.0 PPG)
* 28th 3rd-Down Defense (50.0 %)

### Arizona Cardinals Season Recap

Many expected the Arizona Cardinals to take the next step this year and so far, they are off to a great start. The Cardinals started the season 2-0 after a surprising Week 1 win against the San Francisco 49ers (24-20) and then a follow up win against the Washington Football Team (30-15).

However, the hype-train derailed a bit in back-to-back weeks. In Week 3, the Cardinals handed the Detroit Lions their first win of the season when they blew a fourth-quarter lead. Arizona was leading 23-20 and ended up losing 26-23 when they failed to score at all in the fourth quarter. Their second loss of the year came the following week against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers jumped out to a 14-0 lead and never looked back as they went on to beat the Cardinals 31-21.

After evening their record up at 2-2, the Cardinals went on their second two-game winning streak of the young season. Arizona rebounded with an easy win against the league-worst New York Jets 30-10. Then, they beat the Cowboys the following week by an even bigger score of 38-10.

### Cardinals Strengths and Weaknesses

Unlike Seattle, Arizona is a more even team on both sides of the ball. They have no league-best strengths but they also have no real glaring weaknesses. 

Strengths:

* 8th Total Offense (408.8 YPG)
* 4th Rushing Offense (161 YPG)
* 2nd Points Allowed (18.7 PPG)
* 7th 3rd-Down Defense (36.5%)
* Pass Rush
* Deep WR Group
* Strong 1-2 at Running Back

Weaknesses:

* Secondary Depth
* Inconsistent Play From Kyler Murray
* Special Teams

## Seattle vs Arizona Sunday Night Free Betting Pick

Seattle may be the better team in this matchup but Arizona is the more level team. Seattle is going to give up points all year and will need Russell Wilson to keep playing at an MVP-level all season if they want to keep winning. Arizona can win games because of both their offense and defense.

Divisional games are always more hard-fought games than when non-divisional teams meet. Arizona’s offense is capable of competing with the Seattle offense and their defense is far better than Seattles. Kyler Murray’s ability to make plays with his feet is what could be the difference in this game. Also, his ability to protect the ball.

The total is high in this game (55.5), as expected, and the Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite. This should be a high-scoring contest but part of Arizona’s game plan should also be to control the clock in this game, limiting the number of times Wilson touches the ball. If they are successful in doing so, this game could potentially be lower-scoring than the sportsbooks expect.

While the over may be a very tempting pick, Arizona’s solid defense and rushing attack could keep this game from blowing up. Instead, taking the Cardinals with the points should be a safer pick. Seattle has benefited statistically from playing three of the worst defenses in the NFL (Atlanta, Dallas, and Minnesota). Against a solid defense like Arizona that won’t give Wilson a ton of time, the Seattle offense may not be as explosive as their numbers would suggest. Take the Cardinals at home in what will likely be a close game. Arizona can win both a high-scoring and a low-scoring game while Seattle’s defense can’t carry the load if their offense has an off night.

***Pick: Arizona+3.5***

Sunday Night Football Week 7 Free Pick: Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals

LA Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Line: LA -1.5
Over/Under: 48.5

For tonight's Raiders vs Chargers Thursday night football, I am playing the OVER. Here is why...

- Both offenses move the football
- LA ranks 8th in yards per pass attempt (YPA)
- Oakland ranks 6th.
- Oakland has been soft on defense. In the last 3 games, they rank last in YPA. s per 
- Raiders have been trending OVER...5-1 in Raiders last 6 games overall
- Recent meetings have been trending UNDER...this forces sportsbooks to drop their total

This game has shootout potential. I would expect a 31-27 game. Oakland on top.

Predicted score: LA 27 - OAK 31

**OVER 48.5**

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Los Angeles Chargers

Oakland Raiders

Raiders vs Chargers Free Pick, Thursday Night Football (11/6/19)

Week 7 Thursday Night Football, the 4-2 Kansas Chiefs travel a mile high to face the 2-4 Denver Broncos.

Thursday, Oct 17th <br />
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos<br />
Spread: KC -3.5<br />
Over/Under: 48.5<br />

Kansas City has been hot, winning their last 7 games versus their AFC West rival. The Chiefs have also cashed in for bettors, winning 6 of these 7 games against the spread (ATS).

<img class="ui image medium bordered" src="https://i.imgur.com/RhUKgqE.png" />

### Who should bettors take in tonight's matchup?

I am leaning towards taking Denver +3.5.

The Chiefs have had some struggles. They lost 2 games in a row at home (vs. Colts and Texans). In their last 3, they are 0-3 against the spread. This trend may continue tonight.

You should look towards the underdog. Denver has been playing better. In their last 2 games, they have limited opponents to an average of 6.5 points! They wont completely shut down the Chiefs, but they should make it competitive.

### Public betting is heavy towards Chiefs

<img class="ui image medium bordered" src="https://i.imgur.com/ZVMB1uW.png" />

There is a heavy gap here. Some sites report over 70% of public wagers are going on Kansas City. This shows a large public consensus on a road favorite.

In this case, you should always bet the other way (take the Broncos).

### Conclusion

I am taking the underdog Broncos in tonight's game. They have been playing solid defense and they should be able to keep this game competitive. A 3.5 point spread will come in handy tonight. Good luck.


Chiefs vs Broncos free pick + betting preview, Thursday Night Football 

Looking for a bet in tonight's Browns vs Jets Monday night football game?

Alright, you have come to the right place...

As I sit here at my desk on a Monday afternoon, I am reviewing the bets from this weekend. Man, we saw some good winners. The custom betting system makes it very easy on my life. It crunches the numbers, suggests winners. I place bets. Make money. Rinse and repeat...

Life is good when I walk in Monday mornings our members have doubled and tripled their money. Win win situation for our community. Gotta love it.

Note - [Betting system picked of 70% this week!](/betting-system) Signup now and start winning. Full season discount are available for limited time!

Now for tonight's game, our betting system is showing us a winner. Since we did so well this weekend - we will give it away for free.

Here is our betting system's proprietary over/under pick for the Browns vs Jets on Monday night football:

Sports books have set the over/under at 45 1/2. Our custom algorithm is telling us this number is too high. **Bettors should take the UNDER on tonight's game**.

Lets look at some stats that support the UNDER:

- Through week 1, Jets rank 14th in yards per pass attempt allowed (held Bills in check). This should continue tonight...
- Cleveland had trouble getting going in week 1 (vs TEN). They now have to go on the road vs NYJ. This spells trouble for an offense trying to find its identity.
- NYJ had an abmismal offensive outing in week 1. Now Trevor Seimian takes the helm. Enough said...

Take the UNDER in this matchup with Medium confidence. Expect a low scoring affair...that might put you to sleep early...but you will wake up to a winning ticket!

Browns vs Jets Over Under Free Pick, Monday Night Football

Lets get ready for some football!

With the start of the 2019 NFL season only 1 day away, its time to place your bets for week 1.

Now, don't go betting just to bet. That is rule #1 in our NFL betting system. You need to make sure you're betting when you have the "edge". 

What does it mean to have the edge? Good question...

When the bettor has an edge they are getting "value" for placing that bet.

Will every edge bet we have be a winner? Of course not, that's impossible. But what it will do is give us a solid winning percentage that will make you tons of money.

How do you get a betting edge? Excellent question! The easiest way - follow us throughout the year. We will provide you excellent free picks in addition to our [proprietary NFL betting system](/betting-system).

Enough betting theory. Time to place our bet for the opening game of the year - Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears.

For this opening day matchup, we will look at the over/under. Our over [under betting system](/betting-system) is showing us value here...lets take a look:

### Packers vs Bears Free Over Under Pick:

For this matchup, bookmakers opened this over/under at 46. Money flow (bets) on the over have pushed this total to its [current 46.5](http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/matchups/).

Analyzing this matchup, the **UNDER 46.5** looks like a solid value play. Here is why...

Before we get into handicapping, *please note* - most of this statistical analysis comes from last season's stats. Teams change from season to season, so there could be some inaccuracy here. But...this is all we have at the moment. And as the year goes on...we will get more accurate.

Both offenses were decent last year. When we look at 2018 yards per pass attempt (our most valuable handicapping stat) both Chicago (ranked #14th) and Green Bay (#22) were in the middle of the pack...

Green Bay now has a completely different coaching staff, so we will give them a slight bump...but both are mid-level scoring offenses...

On the defensive side of the ball, Chicago ran the show. In 2018, the **Bears ranked #1 in yards per pass attempt allowed (5.8 yards)**. They also lead the league in points allowed at 18 per game. Solid.

Green Bay's defense was OK. They rank 23rd in yards per pass attempt allowed. This lead to allowing an average of 25 points per game. Middle of the pack...but, with some key personal moves this offseason, they look to be upgraded defensively in 2019. (see [Packers' Defense Has Been All The Rage This Summer](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robreischel/2019/08/15/packers-defense-beginning-to-look-like-an-elite-unit/#76c26eeb281b))

Our custom betting system is showing us a low scoring Packers/Bears matchup. 4-5 combined touchdowns, max. The total should not top 42.

**Packers/Bears UNDER 46.5** (medium confidence)

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Packers vs Bears, Over Under Free Pick, Week 1

Looking for NFL underdog picks for week 1?

Well, you came to the right place...

Let's get down to business. You can start the NFL season off right with our winning picks and betting advice.

If your new to Wager&Review, you can do some reading here on our overall philosophy towards NFL betting. To keep it short - its all about mindset. And you are about to have a winning one...

So lets take a look at week 1. Should we play some heavy favorites and lay tons of points? No way. Especially early in the season **underdogs** are the where you place your money. (read more here)

Here are the teams that will make you tons of cash in week 1.

All of our NFL picks are based off our prioritary [NFL betting system](/betting-system). This is no random stuff. We have formulated a system over 20+ years that will help you cash tickets...which is all that matters.

Note - these are medium and low confidence picks. If you want our high confidence plays - [signup now for our NFL betting system](/betting-system). You will receive a preseason discount.

### Houston Texans +7 vs. New Orleans Saints (medium confidence)

Ofcourse, everyone knows about New Orleans is a tough place to play. But don't sleep on the Houston Texans. After a monster pre-season trade, the Texans are feeling good. Lead by DeShaun and JJ...they have a solid team all around. In 2018, under coach Jim O'Brien, they had several quality road wins (shows they can play on the road).

For the 2019 season, we rate the Texans as a "9 win" team. New Orleans is rated as 9 wins as well. When we run these numbers through they system - the line should be NO -2.5. Betting HOU +7, your getting value. Bet it in week 1 (with medium confidence).

Who's NFL betting system plays for Week 1 of 2019

Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals (7:05 PM)


ML: Chicago+220/Washington-245

RL: Chicago+110/Washington-120

O/U: O8.5-107/U8.5-113


Reynaldo Lopez (3-5 6.20 ERA) vs Stephen Strasburg (5-3 3.19 ERA) 


Key Trends:

- Chicago is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against Washington.
- Chicago is 6-14 SU in their last 20 games against the National League.
- Washington is 7-2 SU in their last 9 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington’s last 6 games against Chicago.
- Washington is 6-3 SU in their last 9 home games.


Prediction:

All of Lopez’s good starts have come against teams ranked in the bottom 10 in offense (Cleveland, Detroit twice, Kansas City, and Toronto). The Nationals offense is ranked 17th in runs per game, but they have scored 59 runs in their last nine games. Strasburg has been the most reliable pitcher for the Nationals over the past four weeks, and against some of the National League’s best teams (Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, and Atlanta). Strasburg goes deep into games and keeps that sketchy Nationals bullpen as little involved as possible. The Nationals are one of the hottest teams in the National League right now and Strasburg is just as hot right now. Look for them to keep their winning ways going after this one. I expect Strasburg to only allow one, maybe two runs in seven-plus innings. The Nationals should put up enough runs to cover the OVER in this, so long as they don’t shut the White Sox out.
 

Score:

Chicago 1 - Washington 8


Best Bets: Washington ML-245, Washington RL-120, and Over 8.5-113

Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals MLB Free Pick Tuesday

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres (10:10 PM)


ML: Philadelphia-130/San Diego+115

RL: Philadelphia+102/San Diego-118

O/U: O7.5-109/U7.5-107


Aaron Nola (6-0 4.18 ERA) vs Eric Lauer (4-4 4.45 ERA)


Key Trends:

- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia’s last 11 games against the National League West.
- San Diego is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego’s last 5 games played on a Monday.
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of San Diego’s last 20 games played in June.
- Philadelphia is 28-14 SU as a favorite this season.
- Philadelphia is 16-11 ATS on the road this season.

Prediction:

Both teams are 5-5 in their last ten games, and the Phillies have lost four straight (three of those against the Los Angeles Dodgers). Phillies offense has crashed back to earth after a great start to the season. They now rank 13th in runs per game but are still way ahead of the Padres, who rank 26th. The Padres rank ninth in ERA and the Phillies are right behind them at 10th. Although both pitchers are pitching well at the moment, I expect Nola to have the better outing today. The Phillies offense is a bigger threat to Lauer than the Padres are to Nola. Look for this to be a low-scoring game with the Phillies pulling away in the middle/late innings.
 

Score:

Philadelphia 4 - San Diego 1


Best Bets: Philadelphia ML-130, Philadelphia RL+102, and Under 7.5-107

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Free MLB Monday Picks

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves (4:10 PM)


ML: Detroit+210/Atlanta-240

RL: Detroit-110/Atlanta-120

O/U: O9.5-105/U9.5-115


Daniel Norris (2-3 4.18 ERA) vs Mike Soroka (5-1 1.07 ERA)


Key Trends:

- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games.
- Detroit is 4-12 SU in their last 16 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Detroit’s last 13 games on the road against Atlanta.
- Detroit is 3-12 SU in their last 15 games against the National League.
- Detroit is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games against the National League East.


Prediction:

The Tigers have the second-worst scoring offense in baseball and are fifth-worst in hits. Soroka should be able to hand the Tigers today with relative ease. There is a good chance we can see him go 7+ scoreless innings today. The Braves offense isn’t the best in baseball (16th in runs per game) but should be able to find a way to score some runs off of Norris. The Braves won’t need too many runs in this one in order to win, so the UNDER should be the pick in this one as well. 


Score:

Detroit 1 - Atlanta 5


Best Bets: Atlanta ML-240, Atlanta RL-120, and Under 9.5-115

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves, MLB Free Pick Saturday

Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox (8:10 PM)


ML: Cleveland-160/Chicago+145

RL: Cleveland+145/Chicago-110

O/U: O9.5-115/U9.5-105


Trevor Bauer (4-4 3.99 ERA) vs Dylan Covey (0-4 5.47 ERA)


Key Trends:

- Cleveland is 13-7 SU in their last 20 games on the road against Chicago.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago’s last 13 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago’s last 6 games against Cleveland.
- Chicago is 9-19 ATS at home this season.


Prediction:

Bauer had his worst start of the season against the White Sox back on May 6th. He gave up 10 hits and allowed seven earned runs. Covey picked up a loss in his relief appearance against the Indians back on April 1st. Both teams are in the bottom eight of the league in runs per game, so both pitchers should have decent outings. Indians walk the fifth most in baseball, with Covey’s command, they should be able to get some good scoring opportunities. Bauer will look to rebound with a big game after getting torched last time he started against the White Sox. This game should be low scoring and stay UNDER but I think the Indians get the win thanks to a few walks from Covey.
 

Score:

Cleveland 5 - Chicago 2


Best Bets: Cleveland ML-160, Cleveland RL+145, and Under 9.5-105

Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox, MLB Free Pick Friday

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies (3:10 PM)


ML: Arizona+100/Colorado-110

RL: Arizona-195/Colorado+210

O/U: O10-108/U10-112


Zack Greinke (6-2 2.89 ERA) vs Jon Gray (4-4 4.62 ERA)


Key Trends:

- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona’s last 12 road games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona’s last 5 games on the road against Colorado.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado’s last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of Colorado’s last 12 home games.
- Colorado is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against the National League.
- Arizona is 31-21 ATS this season.
- Arizona is 18-10 ATS on the road this season.


Prediction:
 
Since his first start of the season, Greinke has only allowed 16 earned runs in 68 innings pitched (2.12 ERA). He has only walked nine batters all year. The Rockies offense doesn’t walk much and strikeouts a lot. Greinke should have the upper hand in this pitching duel. Being at Coors Field we can expect some balls to fly in this one. Arizona is 11th in the Majors in home runs and should add to that total today. Gray has given up 11 home runs so far this season, 18th most in the league. The Diamondbacks should pick up their fourth straight win behind another solid Greinke performance. The OVER should hit despite Greinke’s great pitching.
 
 
Score:

Arizona 8 - Colorado 3


Best Bets: **Arizona ML+100/Arizona RL-195 and Over 10-108**

MLB Memorial Day Free Pick, Arizona vs Colorado

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants (9:45 PM)


ML: Atlanta-151/San Francisco+136

RL: Atlanta-103/San Francisco-117

O/U: O7.5+100/U7.5-120


Max Fried (6-2 2.86 ERA) vs Jeff Samardzija (2-2 3.69 ERA)


Key Trends:

- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games.
- Atlanta is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games.
- Atlanta is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against San Francisco.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 road games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco’s last 6 games against Atlanta.
- San Francisco is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games against the National League East.


Prediction:

Look for the Braves to run up Samardzija’s pitch count early in this one and chase him from the game before the sixth. The Giants have the sixth best bullpen in the league in terms of ERA, so the Braves will be looking to do their damage against Samardzija. I expect Fried to pitch into the seventh in this one, possibly even later, limiting the Braves bullpen innings. The Braves get the early lead and manage to hold on for the win in a lower scoring game.


Score:

Atlanta 4 - San Francisco 1


Best Bets: Atlanta ML-151, Atlanta RL-103, and Under 7.5-120

Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants, MLB Freebie 5/22/19

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers (7:40 PM)


ML: Cincinnati+127/Milwaukee-140

RL: Cincinnati-160/Milwaukee+140

O/U: O9-101/U9-119


Sonny Gray (0-4 4.30 ERA) vs Gio Gonzalez (2-0 1.69 ERA)


Key Trends:

- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games.
- Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games against Milwaukee.
- The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cincinnati's last 20 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee.
- Cincinnati is 4-12 SU in their last 16 games against an opponent in the National League Central division.
- Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played on a Tuesday.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games.
- Milwaukee is 11-5 SU in their last 16 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 7 games against Cincinnati.
- Milwaukee is 6-0 SU in their last 6 games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Milwaukee's last 16 games this season.


Prediction:

Gio Gonzalez has been an absolute steal for the Brewers so far this season. He is holding a 1.08 WHIP. The Reds are an improved team, but I think Gio can keep his hot streak going. Sonny Gray hasn't been as good as he can be, but despite his record, he hasn't been that bad either. Gray has a 1.18 WHIP and 48 strikeouts in 44 innings. This should be a lower scoring game but I like Gio to get the better of the Reds. Gray will pitch decent, but not well enough to get a win. 


Score:

Cincinnati 2 - Milwaukee 5


Best Bets: **Milwaukee ML-140, Milwaukee RL+140 and Under 9-119**

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers, MLB Premium Picks 5/21/19

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles (7:05 PM)


ML: New York-245/Baltimore+218

RL: New York-165/Baltimore+144

O/U: O9.5-101/U9.5-119


Domingo German (8-1 2.50 ERA) vs David Hess (1-5 5.58 ERA)


Key Trends:

- NY Yankees are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
- NY Yankees are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games against Baltimore.
- NY Yankees are 9-0 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore.
- NY Yankees are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games this season.
- Baltimore is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games.
- Baltimore is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games at home.


Prediction:

German’s pitching this season has him in early Cy Young talks. With two dominant performances already against Baltimore this year, a third should be all but automatic. Baltimore will have trouble finding more than a couple runs in this one. The Yankees should win this game with ease. Hess gets chased early.


Score:

New York 7 - Baltimore 1


Best Bets: **New York ML-245 and New York RL-165**

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles, Free Pick 5/21/19

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers (8:05 PM)


ML: Seattle+133/Texas-147

RL: Seattle-140/Texas+120

O/U: O11-110/U11-110


Mike Leake (3-4 4.00 ERA) vs Mike Minor (4-3 2.61 ERA)


Key Trends:

- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games.
- Seattle is 5-15 SU in their last 20 games.
- Seattle is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas.
- Seattle is 5-13 SU in their last 18 games against an opponent in the American League.
- Texas is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- Texas is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.


Prediction:

The last time these two pitchers faced each other was April 27. Minor had one of his best games of the year and Leake his worst. We took the Rangers ML, RL and the OVER in that one and won all three. We're going to do the same today. Minor is having a great season and the Rangers offense is still number one in baseball. They are on a nice little run right now as well and are starting to heat up. If the Rangers happen to fall out of contention in the next two months, look for Minor to be a top trade target at this year's trade deadline.


Score:

Seattle 4 - Texas 9


Best Bets: **Texas ML-147, Texas RL+120, and OVER 11-110**

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers, MLB Free Pick 5/20/19

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 PM)


ML: San Francisco+144/Arizona-160

RL: San Francisco-135/Arizona+115

O/U: O8-114/U8-106


Drew Pomeranz (1-4 5.93 ERA) vs Robbie Ray (3-1 3.14 ERA)


Key Trends: 

- The total has gone OVER in 10 of San Francisco's last 13 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 8 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona.
- San Francisco is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the National League.
- San Francisco is 3-9 SU in their last 12 games played on a Sunday.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games against an opponent in the National League West division.
- Arizona is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing as the favorite.


Prediction:

The Giants offense has improved as the season has progressed, but they still sit 23rd overall with 3.9 runs per game. The Diamondbacks have one of the more potent offenses in baseball, averaging 5.2 runs per game (5th). Arizona also has the edge in team ERA. They have put together a season that has them ranked 13th in ERA compared to 20th for the Giants. Ray is the better pitcher of the two right now. Add in the fact that Arizona is at home, they should take this game today. I think the Diamondbacks offense comes out firing this one and makes it a short day for Pomeranz. The OVER should hit in this one as well, with the Diamondbacks possibly covering the over on their own.


Score:

Arizona 7 - San Francisco 3


Best Picks: **Arizona ML-160, Arizona RL+115 and Over 8-114**

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB Freebie 5/19/19

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners (10:10 PM)


ML: Minnesota-126/Seattle+114

RL: Minnesota+114/Seattle-134

O/U: O9-120/U9+100


Jose Berrios (6-2 3.05 ERA) vs Wade LeBlanc (2-0 4.50 ERA) 


Key Trends:

- Minnesota is 4-0 SU in their last five games.
- Minnesota is 5-0 SU in their last five 5 road games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 6 games on Saturday.
- The total has gone OVER in 13 of Seattle’s last 18 games. 
- Seattle is 4-14 SU in their last 18 games.
- Seattle is 4-12 SU in their last 16 home games.


Prediction:

The Twins have been one of the most surprising teams this season. They have one of the best records in baseball and the Mariners have had one of the worst records since April 12. Berrios is the Twins top pitcher and should have another solid outing tonight. The Twins second-ranked offense shouldn’t have much trouble scoring on LeBlanc. Once the Mariners pen comes in, the Twins should widen their lead. Look for the Twins to pick up a win in semi-blowout fashion while also hitting the OVER. Berrios has a bounce-back game and the Twins continue their winning streak while the Mariners are left trying to figure out how they can turn their season around.


Score:

Minnesota 7 - Seattle 3


Best Bets: **Minnesota ML-126, Minnesota RL+114 and Over 9-120**

Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners, MLB Free Pick Saturday 5/18/19

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals (7:15 PM)


ML: Chicago+125/Washington-138

RL: Chicago-175/Washington+151

O/U: O8.5+100/U8.5-120


Jon Lester (3-1 1.16 ERA) vs Stephen Strasburg (3-3 3.63 ERA)


Key Trends:

- Chi Cubs are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games.
- Chi Cubs are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games against Washington.
- Chi Cubs are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi Cubs' last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington.
- Washington is 6-12 SU in their last 18 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games against Chi Cubs.


Prediction:

Lester off of to one of the best starts to a season in his career. The Nationals have been struggling since Trea Turner went down earlier this season. Strasburg has been up and down this year. All signs point to the Cubs as the more consistent team with the better pitcher on the mound today. I think the Cubs offense helps get this game over. The Nationals bullpen is terrible and is prone to giving up a lot of runs. Cubs should take this one with ease.


Score:

Chicago 8 - Washington 3


Best Picks: **Chicago ML+125, Chicago RL-175 and Over 8.5+100**

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals, MLB Premium Picks

St. Louis Cardinals vs Texas Rangers (8:05 PM)


ML: St. Louis-157/Texas+141

RL: St. Louis-115/Texas-105

O/U: O11.5-113/U11.5-107


Miles Mikolas (4-3 3.83 ERA) vs Jose Leclerc (1-1 6.32 ERA)


Key Trends:

- The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis' last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas' last 5 games.
- Texas is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas' last 7 games at home.
- Texas is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the National League.


Prediction:

Both the Cardinals and the Rangers are in a bit of a slump right now, but someone will break out of it today. The Rangers have the #1 offense in baseball in terms of runs per game. The Cardinals have a top five bullpen and Mikolas has pitched well this season, holding a WHIP of 1.06. Leclerc can't be trusted to win games and his 1.79 WHIP shows that he isn't just having bad luck, he just isn't a good pitcher. The Cardinals offense is capable of being a top-five offense when the season is over. I think this will be a high scoring game, but the Cardinals will get more runs against Leclerc then the Rangers will Mikolas. Once it comes to bullpens, the advantage is even more in the Cardinals favor. Look for them to run away late in this one.


Score:

St. Louis 8 - Texas 5


Best Bets: **St. Louis ML-157, St. Louis RL-115 and Over 11.5-113**

St. Louis Cardinals vs Texas Rangers, MLB Premium Pick Friday 5/17/19

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves (7:20 PM)


ML: Milwaukee+113/Atlanta-124

RL: Milwaukee-164/Atlanta+144

O/U: O9.5-103/U9.5-117


Jhoulys Chacin (3-4 4.57 ERA) vs Max Fried (5-2 3.25 ERA)


Key Trends:

- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 7 games.
- Milwaukee is 10-3 SU in their last 13 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee’s last 8 road games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 6 games played on Friday.
- Atlanta is 10-13 ATS at home this season.


Prediction:

This will be a battle of two different pitching styles. Chacin likes to work the zone while Fried likes to attack hitters. The Brewers pitching staff has been incredible the past two weeks, holding a team ERA of 1.81 in their last 13 games. The Brewers are 8-6 against LHP this season. Chacin is on a hot streak and Fried is on the decline. The Brewers offense scored 22 runs in their last three games (all wins). I think the Brewers get the win in this one. If the game is tied in the late innings, the Brewers have a huge advantage as Atlanta has one of the worst bullpens in the National League. If they run into Josh Hader of the Brewers, it will be lights out for the Atlanta offense. This should be a low scoring game with the Brewers pulling the “upset”.


Score:

Milwaukee 4 - Atlanta 2


Best Bets: **Milwaukee ML+113, Milwaukee RL-164 and Under 9.5-117**

Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves, MLB Free Pick Friday

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres (10:10 PM)


ML: Pittsburgh+117/San Diego-129

RL: Pittsburgh-190/San Diego+163

O/U: O7.5-113/U7.5-107


Trevor Williams (2-1 3.40 ERA) vs Eric Lauer (2-4 5.75 ERA)


Key Trends:

- The total has gone OVER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 13 games.
- Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
- Pittsburgh is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 9 of Pittsburgh's last 13 games when playing on the road against San Diego.
- San Diego is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games against Pittsburgh.


Prediction:

Neither team features a great, or even really a good offense (Pirates 26th in runs per game, Padres 25th). However, Lauer is the type of pitcher that the Pirates can break out against. The Pirates are traveling in from Arizona, so they have been out on the west coast the past few days, so that shouldn’t be much of an issue for them. The Pirates offense has a better chance to break out in this one. Williams has had some really good outings so far this year and against the Padres offense, he should be able to have another quality outing. The OVER should hit in this one as well, with Pittsburgh getting the majority of the runs.


Score:

Pittsburgh 5 - San Diego 3


Best Picks: **Pittsburgh ML+117, Pittsburgh RL-190 and Over 7.5-113**

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres, Free MLB Game of the Day

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM)


ML: Chicago+126/Cincinnati-140

RL: Chicago-180/Cincinnati+155

O/U: O8.5-115/U8.5-105


Jose Quintana (4-2 3.50 ERA) vs Luis Castillo (4-1 1.76 ERA)


Key Trends:

- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs' last 7 games.
- Chi Cubs are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati.
- Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games against Chi Cubs.
- Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs.


Predictions:

Castillo has been a gem for a top-tier Reds pitching staff this season. The offense is finally starting to click after a rough start and the Reds are 18-16 since there rough 1-8 start to the season. Before the season began, many thought this team would be much improved compared to recent years, and they are starting to show that they indeed are. Last night's walk-off-win was just what this team needed to keep its momentum going in the right direction. Quintana is certainly hittable, so I think the Reds rollover that momentum into this one and get a few runs early. Castillo is the guy they want on the mound every game, and he will protect their lead in this one. The Reds win the game and take the series from the Cubs, showing that they are no longer the "easy" win that the NL has been getting from them for years.


Score:

Chicago 2 - Cincinnati 5


Best Picks: **Cincinnati ML-140, Cincinnati RL+155 and Under 8.5-105**

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds, MLB Premium Game 5/16/19

Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State Warriors (9:00 PM)


Spread: Golden State-7

O/U: 219


Best Picks: **Portland+7 and Over 219**

Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State Warriors Game 2 Premium Picks

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers (7:10 PM)


ML: Houston-330/Detroit+300

RL: Houston-230/Detroit+192

O/U: O10-105/U10-115


Justin Verlander (6-1 2.51 ERA) vs Gregory Soto (0-1 15.75 ERA)


Key Trends:

- Houston is 7-0 SU in their last 7 games.
- Houston is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against Detroit.
- Detroit is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.


Prediction:

The Astros started the season 2-5 and now have a record of 28-15. They are the hottest team in baseball right now and have outscored the Tigers 19-5 in the two previous games of the series. The Astros are now first in the league in runs, hits, hits allowed, batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS, WHIP, and BAA. Aside from stolen bases (17th), the Astros are top five in baseball in virtually every major category.

A Tigers’ offense that ranks second-to-last in runs per game is going to struggle against a hot Verlander. The Astros are currently the most dominant team in baseball and will have no trouble handling the Tigers today. I think the Under hits today due to the Tigers having trouble scoring more than one or two runs.


Score:

Houston 7 - Detroit 1


Best Picks: **Houston ML-330, Houston RL-230, and Under 10-115**

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers, MLB Free Pick Wednesday 5/15/19

Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks (8:30 PM)


Spread: Milwaukee-6.5

O/U: 218


Best Picks: **Milwaukee-6.5 and Over 218**

Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 Pick

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 PM)


ML: Milwaukee-114/Philadelphia+104

RL: Milwaukee+148/Philadelphia-170

O/U: O8-115/U8-105


Brandon Woodruff (5-1 4.25 ERA) vs Jerad Eickhoff (2-1 1.50 ERA)


Key Trends:

- Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Philadelphia.
- Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
- Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.


Prediction:

Both teams are 7-3 in their last ten games, but the Brewers have lost their last three and the Phillies have won their last three. In their last four wins, the Phillies are outscoring their opponents 29-1. Both teams have had bullpen issues in the past, so despite these two pitchers doing as well as they have been their last few starts, I think this game will see north of 8.5 runs. The Phillies offense is scoring even with Bryce Harper struggling, which is scary. I think the Phillies offense is in a better place right now than the Brewers, so they should get to Woodruff better than the Brewers get to Eickhoff, who I think is the better pitcher of the two. 


Score:

Milwaukee 3 - Phillies 6


Best Bets: Philadelphia ML+104 and Philadelphia RL-170

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies, Free MLB Pick of the Day 5/14/19

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers (7:10 PM)


ML: Houston-148/Detroit+134

RL: Houston-135/Detroit+115

O/U: O8-119/U8-101


Brad Peacock (3-2 4.30 ERA) vs Matthew Boyd (4-2 2.86 ERA)


Prediction:

If you've never watched of Matthew Boyd, it's time that you start. Boyd is a great pitcher on a bad team. He's gone at least six innings in every start this season but one and has never allowed more than three earned runs in any of his appearances. His 0.93 WHIP is one of the best in baseball and he has 63 strikeouts and 11 walks in 50 1/3 innings. There is a reason a hot Houston team is only a -148 favorite, and its Boyd. He will have a tough test tonight but if he can shut down the red hot Astros right now (who are good against lefties), he will get himself into some early season Cy Young talks. I'm trusting the man to do his thing tonight, put your money on Detroit, let's just hope his offense can get him a couple runs, but Peacock should give them plenty of opportunities to do so.


Score:

Houston 1 - Detroit 3


Best Bets: **Detroit ML+134, Detroit RL+115 and Under 8-101**

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers, MLB Free Pick Monday 5/13/19

The PGA Championship will embark on one of the country’s top golf courses, Bethpage Black, in a new slot in May. Early indications are the course will play long and soft as cool and wet conditions are invading Long Island the next couple weeks. Those conditions will play into the hands of some of the longer hitters as Bethpage is playing as a par-70 at over 7,400 yards. Three par-4s are playing over 500 yards, including the monster par-4 7th which maxes out at 524. This is likely to play more like an old school U.S. Open than a PGA Championship. If you’re not a big hitter, you may struggle to stay in contention, particularly if the forecast plays out and it’s wet.

Looking at the [PGA Championship odds](/go/mybookie-golf-odds), there’s some good value out there on some of the guys and I do think this will be a major where the big names will hover on the front page of the leaderboard much like The Masters. Here’s the guys I will be playing at this year’s Masters and feel there’s good reason to take them:

[Live Page Championship Odds (MyBookie)](/go/mybookie-golf-odds)

### Rory McIlroy 10-1

Okay, so yes, I was off on Rory at The Masters, and I was far from being the only one. I think 99% of golf fans were stunned he didn’t contend. We’re going to chalk that one up as simply a dud performance where perhaps he put too much pressure on himself. Rory still comes in playing the best golf of anyone this year, finishing in the top-8 in 7 of his last 8 stroke play events. He also has won the PGA Championship twice since 2012 and finished T-10 at Bethpage in the 2009 U.S. Open when he was only 20 years old. But what makes me like Rory most is the conditions Bethpage is likely to have in place. A course this is longer and softer plays into Rory’s hands probably more so than any other player in the field. This is already a long golf course, and when a long golf course plays soft, it eliminates around 75% of the field. It gives a big advantage to long hitters and strong ball-strikers which is Rory’s strong suit. I’ll take the 10-1 odds which are better than the 7-1 odds he had at Augusta. 

### Brooks Koepka 12-1

It’s a major championship, which means Koepka has his game face on. He’s the defending champion and is playing on a course that will suit his game. Not to mention, Koepka has been a major champion machine. Take away last year’s Open Championship where Koepka finished T-39, and Koepka has gone 1st, T-6, T-13, 1st, 1st and T-2 in major championships since the 2017 U.S. Open. That is a spectacular run the last couple years in major play. I am fully on board with playing him at the PGA where long and good ball strikers like Brooks will be rewarded. The value is okay. I probably would hedge under 10-1, but at 12-1, I’ll play it.

### Xander Schauffele 25-1

Schauffele has become a big event machine over the past year, and in my eyes, the best player never to win a major championship (sorry Rickie, Bryson and Rahm). The PGA is a major where those best players never to win a major tend to come through. Seven of the last 10 champions were first timers. Schauffele is already a winner on Tour this year and has been a big major championship contender over the last two years. In his last 7 major championships, Schauffele has two runners-up and two top-6 finishes. In two of his last three majors he has two runners-up, The 2018 Open and this year’s Masters. He’s knocking on the door. He’s big enough a hitter to play with the big boys and he’s no doubt got the game to win.


### Adam Scott 50-1

Talk about value. This is value times 10. I’m not saying Adam Scott the favorite or anything, but at 50-1, he is the best value on the board. I’ll take those odds all day and every day. Scott contended just a few weeks ago at The Masters, going into Sunday with a chance to win but faded on the back nine to finish T-18. He finished third a year ago at the PGA Championship and was right in the heart of the duel between champion Brooks Koepka and Tiger Woods. He doesn’t come in to the PGA in bad form. He’s had 3 top-12s in his last 5 events. While ranked 27th in the world, Adam fares much better in the top events as evidenced by his contention at the PGA, Players and Masters the last several months. He also contended at The Barclays in 2016 when it was played at Bethpage, finishing T-4.I’ll take this value and pound it.

Note: Whats the best PGA Championship bonus available? Find it at MyBookie...signup now and **[receive up to $1000 in bonus money](/go/mybookie)** (click to claim)

### Thoughts on some other guys:

**Tiger Woods 6-1**: I didn’t hate Tiger at The Masters, I just didn’t like the value. Same goes here. I think Tiger can be there on Sunday, I just find 6-1 way too low. Golf is so hard to pick that when you see guys’ odds at 10-1 or lower, you tend to stay away unless they are putting up top-5s every event (like Rory has been doing). Tiger hasn’t played since The Masters and Bethpage is a tough and demanding test. That being said, he won the U.S. Open here in 2002 and finished To-6 at the 2009 U.S. Open. So yes, I think he can contend. Win? It’s hard to win two majors in a row. Then again, this is Tiger.
Dustin Johnson 9-1: Like Tiger, the odds are just too low for me to take a chance. If you want to go with just favorites, DJ’s a good choice. It’s a course well-suited for his game and I do think he will contend. However, I didn’t like the back 9 at Hilton Head and he hasn’t played since. I like him at the PGA, but I don’t love him, and to be under 10-1, you need to be on that “love” list for me to play you, like Rory.

**Patrick Reed 33-1**: Reed has struggled this year, but signs seem to point he may be turning the corner. He was in contention on the weekend at Wells Fargo last weekend before fading on Sunday. He also won at Bethpage at the 2016 Barclays. At 33-1, it’s good value and worth it if you’re looking for longshot picks. He’s actually one of the guys I’m taking in my fantasy survival pool.

*Other good value plays*: Justin Rose 16-1, Rickie Fowler 20-1, Patrick Cantlay 50-1, Webb Simpson 80-1



2019 PGA Championship Picks and Longshots

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 PM)


ML: Atlanta-131/Arizona+118

RL: Atlanta+125/Arizona-145

O/U: O9.5-110/U9.5-110


Max Fried (4-2 2.97 ERA) vs Zack Godley (1-2 7.49 ERA) 


Key Trends:

- Arizona is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona’s last 5 games against Atlanta.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona’s last 5 games at home.
- Arizona is 8-9 SU at homes this season.


Prediction:

Godley hasn’t made a start since April 27th and his first one back probably won’t go very well. The Braves are 11th in the league in walks and with Godley’s command issues, they should be able to draw at least three off of him and run his pitch count up, forcing him from this game early. Fried’s making his next scheduled start after taking that hit off of his hand, so it appears everything is fine there. After getting roughed up by the Dodgers, Fried should be able to get back on track and have another quality outing against the Diamondbacks. The Braves should pick up the win in a somewhat low scoring game that covers the 
UNDER.


Score:

Atlanta 5 - Arizona 2


Best Bets: Atlanta ML-131, Atlanta RL+125 and Under 9.5-110

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB Freebie of the Day 5/12/19

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays (3:07 PM)


ML: Chicago+140/Toronto-155

RL: Chicago-150/Toronto+130

O/U: O8.5-110/U8.5-110


Ivan Nova (1-3 7.04 ERA) vs Marcus Stroman (1-5 2.96 ERA)


Key Trends:

- Chicago is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games.
- Chicago is 2-7 SU in their last 9 games against Toronto.
- Toronto is 4-1 SU in their last 5 home games against Chicago.


Prediction:

Stroman has been the better pitcher of the two so far this season and I think he ends up being the better one in this game as well. Neither offense is going to explode in this one, but Toronto should be able to find a way to get a multi-run win against a pitcher who has one of the highest ERA’s among qualified starters. Toronto gets a few off of Nova early and adds a couple later as the White Sox struggle to get more than a couple of runs throughout the game against a top ten Toronto pitching staff. 


Score:

Chicago 2 - Toronto 5


Best Picks: Toronto ML-155, Toronto RL+130 and Under 8.5-110

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays, MLB Free Pick 5/11/19

Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City (8:15 PM)


ML: Philadelphia-153/Kansas City+138

RL: Philadelphia+110/Kansas City-130

O/U: O9-113/U9-107


Jake Arrieta (4-2 3.40 ERA) vs Homer Baily (3-3 5.25 ERA)


Key Trends:

- Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games.
- Kansas City is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 7 games against Philadelphia.
- The total has gone OVER in 13 of Kansas City’s last 18 home games.


Prediction:
 
Going up against an offense like the Phillies, Bailey should be in for a rough day. Look for the Phillies to hit a couple of home runs off of him today. Arrieta should be able to have one of his best outings of the season against a Royals offense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs per game. Bailey should give up plenty of runs to help this game reach the OVER. Philadelphia should be able to get a big enough lead early that their bullpen should have no problem holding, even with allowing a couple of late-inning runs.

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Score:

Philadelphia 8 - Kansas City 3


Best Bets: Philadelphia ML-153. Philadelphia RL+110 and Over 9-113

Philadelphia vs Kansas City, MLB Free Pick of the Day 5/10/19

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians (1:10 PM)


ML: Chicago+192/Cleveland-215

RL: Chicago-125/Cleveland-110

O/U: O9-105/U9-115


Manny Banuelos (2-1 5.96 ERA) vs Carlos Carrasco (2-3 5.60 ERA)


Key Trends:

- Chi White Sox are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
- Chi White Sox are 6-12 SU in their last 18 games against Cleveland.
- Chi White Sox are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games when playing on the road against Cleveland.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games against an opponent in the American League Central division.


Prediction:

Carrasco is a lot better of a pitcher than he has shown so far this season. Chicago has been out playing Cleveland so far for most of this series, but the Indians won the third game after dropping the first two. The Indians bats aren't very good, but they should be able to pick up about 5 runs against Banuelos and the bullpen tonight. Carrasco will only give up 1-2 runs this game and pitch 6+ and get the win.

Score:

Chicago 2 - Cleveland 5


Best Bets: Cleveland ML-215, Cleveland RL-110 and Under 9-115

Free MLB Picks Thursday 5/9/19

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays (1:10 PM)


ML: Arizona+141/Tampa Bay-157

RL: Arizona-152/ Tampa Bay +124

O/U: O7-110/U7-110


Robbie Ray (2-1 3.79 ERA) vs Charlie Morton (3-0 2.52 ERA)


Key Trends:

- Arizona is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Tampa Bay.
- Arizona is 4-12 SU in their last 16 games against an opponent in the American League East division.
- Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the National League.


Prediction:

After losing 3-0 to the Baltimore Orioles, the Rays will be looking for a sweep today of the Diamondbacks, and I think they get it. Charlie Morton is pitching well and should be able to keep doing so after this one. Robbie Ray isn't having a bad year either, but I think he gets into trouble early with walks in this one and the Rays hitting will take advantage. Once Ray is gone, the Rays will pull away. Morton goes 7+ in this one and gets the win.
 
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Score:

Arizona 2 - Tampa Bay 5


Best Bets: Tampa Bay ML-157 and Tampa Bay RL+124

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays, Free  MLB Picks For Wednesday 5/9/18

Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays (7:07 PM)


ML: Minnesota-155/Toronto-140

RL: Minnesota-105/Toronto-115

O/U: O9-104/U9-116


Jose Berrios (5-1 2.91 ERA) vs Aaron Sanchez (3-2 3.09 ERA)


Key Trends:

- Minnesota is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games.
- Minnesota is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games against Toronto.
- The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota’s last 12 road games.
- Toronto is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games.
- Toronto is 0-5 SU in their last 5 home games against Minnesota


Prediction:

Berrios is pitching against the 25th ranked offense in the Blue Jays and he should be able to put together another strong outing today. If he goes six or seven innings and only allows two runs, which seems to be the norm for him, the Twins should have no problem getting the win against a pitcher like Sanchez who throws a lot of pitches and may be out of this one early. The Twins produce the fifth most runs in baseball and should score more than their average of 5.3 runs in this one. Look for Minnesota to take advantage of walks from Sanchez and turn them into runs.

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Score: 

Minnesota 6 - Toronto 3


Best Bets: Minnesota ML-155 and Minnesota RL-105

Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday Free Pick of The Day!

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres (10:10 PM)


ML: New York-117/San Diego+107

RL: New York+148/San Diego-170

O/U: O6.5-115/U6.5-105


Jacob deGrom (2-3 3.82 ERA) vs Chris Paddack (2-1 1.91 ERA).


Key Trends:

- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Mets’ last 6 games.
- The Mets are 0-5 SU in their last 5 road games.
- The Mets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of San Diego’s last 19 home games.
- San Diego is 14-6 SU in their last 20 games as an underdog.


Prediction:

The Mets have only scored 7 runs in the last five games and have been just as bad in the field (five errors) as at the plate in that span. The Mets are in a bad spot right now in a number of areas and the offense has crashed back to earth, hard, after a hot start to the season. deGrom is still one of the best pitchers in baseball and I think he will have a good game today, as will Paddack. However, once deGrom is out, the Mets bullpen will come in and start giving up runs. deGrom has never gotten much run support in his career and that unfortunate trend will probably continue today. The Padres pick up a low scoring win with some late-game runs, courtesy of the New York bullpen.

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Score:

New York 1 - San Diego 4


Best Bets: San Diego ML+107, San Diego-170 and Under 6.5-105

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres, Monday's Can't Miss MLB Freebie

Houston Astros vs LA Angels (4:10 PM)


ML: Houston-217/Los Angeles+194

RL: Houston+105/Los Angeles-115

O/U: O9.5-103/U9.5-117


Justin Verlander (4-1 2.45 ERA) vs Matt Harvey (1-2 6.54 ERA).


Key Trends:

- Houston is 6-0 SU in their last 6 games against Los Angeles.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston’s last 7 road games.
- Houston is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games on the road against Los Angeles.
- Houston is 9-3 SU in their last 12 games against the American League West Division.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Los Angeles’ last 10 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles’ last 6 games against Houston.


Prediction: 

Verlander has been one of the best pitchers in baseball so far this season and has a WHIP of 0.86 (T2nd in the MLB) to go along with his 53 strikeouts in 44 innings. Verlander has gone at least six innings in every start this year but one, and Harvey has only managed to pitch more than six innings once this season. Verlander should be able to carve up an Angels lineup that ranks 22nd in hits per game. Look for Harvey to be bounced from this game before the end of the 6th inning, while Verlander flirts with the possibility of pitching into the eighth. After letting Verlander down in his last start, the Astros will be looking to pile on the run support in this one.

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Score:

Houston 9 - Los Angeles 2


Best Picks: Houston ML-217, Houston RL+105 and Over 9.5-103

Sunday's Free MLB Bets Worth Betting BIG!!!

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Indians (4:10 PM)


ML: Seattle+177/Cleveland-198

RL: Seattle-127/Cleveland+107

O/U: O8.5-105/U8.5-115


Mike Leake (2-3 4.98 ERA) vs Carlos Carrasco (2-3 5.86 ERA).


Key Notes:

- Seattle is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games.
- Seattle is 5-12 SU in their last 17 games.
- Seattle is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Cleveland.
- Cleveland is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games against the American League.
- Cleveland is 14-8 against RHP this season.


Prediction:

Despite his low walk count, Leake has a WHIP of 1.51, (45 hits in 34 ⅓ innings), so the opportunity will be there for the Indians to get some hits. Carrasco has started to turn his season around, and if he had been pulled after six innings in his last start he would still have his 17 innings scoreless streak and we would be talking about him as one of baseball’s hottest pitchers at the moment. I think he continues to pitch well, and going up against a Mariners offense that can’t seem to find many runs. The Indians should take this one with ease. I'm hitting this one hard!

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Score: Seattle 1 - Cleveland 5


Best Picks: Cleveland ML-198 and Cleveland RL+107

Saturday's Free MLB Pick (BIG MONEY BET)!

Do you know why horse bettors love the Kentucky Derby? Simple. Large payout potential.

The first leg of the Triple Crown always draws a large field. This field of top 3 year old presents the best 15-20 horses about to reach their prime. The Kentucky Derby 1 1/4 mile track presents the longest race many of these horse have faced in their career. Throw in enormous stakes. What do you get...?

Unpredictable results.

When results are unpredictable bettors get one thing - large payouts! Beautiful formula. I'm sold.

And as always, a good craftsman needs the proper tools. Here are the tools need to succesfully handicap the 2019 Derby:

- **[Live Kentucky Odds](/go/mybookie-horse-odds)**
- [2019 Kentucky Derby Past Performances](/blog/oCRm0cz/2019-kentucky-derby-past-performances-download-)
- [Derby Track Bias, Why it Matters?](/blog/Cpb0B78/kentucky-derby-2019--what-is-track-bias-and-why-it-matters-)

Now that we have established the large payout potential, lets look at some of the must play long shots in the 2019 Kentucky Derby:

**Maximum Security** - currently listed at 8-1, Maximum Security is my favorite play at this year's Derby. Coming off 4 straight wins, last going away at the Florida Derby, this horse knows how to run from the front and close out a race. From the 8 post and rated as a "speed" horse, Maximum Security is in great position to finishing in the money. 8 to 1 aren't the biggest odds in the world, but he has a great shot to win the race and pay you 8x your money! 

**By My Standards** - [winner of the Louisiana Derby](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLuwQzD5erE), By My Standards is in nice position for a large payout. Currently at 16 to 1, this 3 year old might surprise the Derby field. By My Standards has shown outstanding workout times and the ability to close and win races. Nice horse to add to your trifecta's this year.

**Best place to play the Derby** - Bovada. **[Signup now and get a Free $250 bet!](/go/bovada-horses)** (click to claim)

**Vekoma** - currently at 18 to 1, Vekoma can win this race. Runstyle of "speed" performances historically well at Churchill Downs. 2nd Highest average speed the last 3 races. Look for Vekoma to jump out to lead the pack. Highest prime power. Nice ticket at 18 to 1!

These are the best longshots I have found for this years Derby. And remmeber...don't be bashful with playing longshots at the 2019 Kentucky Derby. The "Running for the Roses" as been know to payout longshots in a big way. Good luck!

2019 Kentucky Derby Long Shots to Play

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres (10:10 PM)


ML: Los Angeles-155/San Diego+140  
RL: Los Angeles+123/San Diego-130  
O/U: O7-118/U7-102  

Clayton Kershaw (1-0 2.25 ERA) vs Eric Lauer (2-3 4.41 ERA)


Key Trends:

- Los Angeles is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
- Los Angeles is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against San Diego.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego’s last 6 home games.
- San Diego is 5-10 ATS at home this season. 


Prediction:

Kershaw has only been back for a few weeks, but it seems like he hasn’t missed a step. Lauer has walked five batters in his last 10 innings and the Dodgers draw the third most walks in baseball. Between Lauer’s command issues and the Dodgers high powered offense, Los Angeles should have no trouble scoring in this game. As good as Kershaw is, even an average outing today should easily get the win for the Dodgers. Los Angeles should be able to hit close to the Over on their own in this one.

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Score:

Los Angeles 7 - San Diego 2


Best Picks: **Los Angeles ML-155, Los Angeles RL+123 and Over 7-118**

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres, Friday's MLB Free Pick 5/3/19

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox (8:10 PM)

ML: Boston-208/Chicago+186  
RL: Boston-130/Chicago+110  
O/U: 8.5


David Price (1-2 3.60 ERA) vs Lucas Giolito (2-1 5.30 ERA)


Key Trends:

- Boston is 9-4 SU in their last 13 games against Chicago.
- Boston is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
- Chicago is 4-10 ATS at home this season.
- Chicago is 6-10 SU as an underdog this season.


Prediction:

With the Red Sox on the rise and Giolito making his first start in two weeks, that should spell trouble for the White Sox. An extended period between starts seems to always throw pitchers off of their routine and causes problems come game time. Price is on the rise as well and I think he continues that trend today and pitches another good game to get the win.

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Score: Boston 6 - Chicago 2


Best Picks: **Boston ML-208 and Boston RL-130**

Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox, Thursday's MLB FREEBIE!

Tonight, the New York Islanders hope to cut into the Carolina Hurricanes 2-0 series lead and try to make a contest of it. A win tonight by the Hurricanes gives them a commanding 3-0 series lead and pretty much sets them on their way to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Hurricanes won the first two games of this series on the road, 1-0 and 2-1 (OT) and are winners of their last four in the playoffs, two of those coming in overtime.

**[Real-time NHL Odds](/go/bovada-nhl-odds)**

There is some value on the Islanders tonight to win at +110. They are the more desperate team and also go on the road where they have won their last 5 contests and 7 of their last 8. The **road team has also won the last 3 in this matchup and 4 of the last 5**. Carolina was also hit with the injury bug in the last game. They will be without Trevor Van Riemsdyk and likely without their goalie Petr Mrazek who suffered a lower-body injury. This means Curtis McElhinney will likely get the start making him the oldest goalie to ever make his first Stanley Cup Playoffs start. Saku Manelaenen will also miss tonight’s game after sustaining a hand injury in Sunday’s game. 

Another angle to take tonight is the under, even though the value isn’t as good as it usually is. Usually over/unders in the NHL playoffs are set at 5.5 or higher. The over/under tonight is set at 5, unusually low for a playoff game. But then again, I always believe in riding a trend until she bucks you or not riding her at all. The Islanders last 5 contests have all been unders in the total. If you go back to the regular season, 8 out of 9 contests have been under the total, and **5 of those 9 have had 3 goals or less in the game**. Carolina has had more overs in their games, but seem to be content in playing the Islanders slow style and playing to a low-scoring game as it has earned them success the last two nights. 

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Best Bets: **Islanders +110** and **Under 5.0 goals**


NY Islanders (+110) at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL Playoffs Free Pick (5/1/19)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Texas Rangers (2:05 PM)

ML: Pittsburgh-134/Texas+121  
RL: Pittsburgh+105/Texas-125  
O/U: O10.5-115/U10.5-105  

Jameson Taillon (1-3 4.06 ERA) vs  Shelby Miller (1-1 7.52 ERA) 

Key Trends:

- Texas is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games.
- Texas is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games at home against Pittsburgh.
- Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against Texas


Prediction:

The Pirates offense has been terrible the past ten days, but yesterday’s extra-innings win should be a morale boost. Going up against Shelby Miller is something every struggling offense would like to do to help them get back on track. The Pirates have some power in their lineup and I think that Miller helps them display that today. The Pirates should be able to get out of their offensive funk and Taillon should be able to contain a good hitting Rangers offense enough to help Pittsburgh get the win.

Score: Pittsburgh 6 - Texas 3

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Best Picks: **Pirates ML-134 and Pirates RL+105**

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Texas Rangers, Wednesday's Free MLB Pick (5/1/19)

Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners (10:10 PM)


ML: Chicago-140/Seattle+126  
RL: Chicago+110/Seattle-130  
O/U: O8.5+101/U8.5-121


Cole Hamels (3-0 3.16 ERA) vs Felix Hernandez (1-2 3.91 ERA).


Key Trends:

- Chicago is 9-3 SU in their last 12 games.
- Chicago is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago’s last 6 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle’s last 8 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle’s last 5 games at home against Chicago.
- Seattle is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.
- Seattle is 0-7 in their last 7 games against the National League.


Prediction:

The Chicago bats are starting to click and the Seattle bats are crashing back to earth after a historic start to the season. Hamels continues his nice start to the season and the Cubs make it a tough day for Hernandez. The Cubs pick up another win today in a game that sees some late-inning runs to hit the Over.

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Score: Chicago 7 - Seattle 3

Best Picks: **Chicago ML-140, Chicago RL+110 and Over 8.5+101**


Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners, Tuesday's Free MLB Pick (4/30/19)

Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox (8:10 PM)

- ML: Baltimore+117/Chicago-129
- RL: Baltimore-175/Chicago+151
- O/U: O8.5-120/Under8.5+100
- John Means (3-2 1.74 ERA) vs Manny Banuelos (1-0 2.51 ERA)

#### Prediction:

Both pitchers should do pretty well against these less than stellar offenses. However, look for Means to have the better day and last an extra inning or so in this one. The Orioles should be able to pick up the win a close one.

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Score: Baltimore 5 - Chicago 4

Best Picks: **Baltimore ML+117 and Baltimore RL-175**

Monday MLB Freebie! Plus BookMaker Bonus Code!

**Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox (1:05 PM)**

ML: Tampa Bay+118/Boston-172

RL: Tampa Bay-172/Boston+149

O/U: O8-101/U8-119

Tyler Glasnow (4-0 1.53 ERA) vs Chris Sale (0-4 7.43 ERA)

Key Trends:

- Tampa Bay is 5-2 vs LHP this season.
- Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 road games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 road games in Boston.
- Tampa Bay is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games against the American League.
- Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 home games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the last 8 games that Boston has played against the American League East.

Prediction:

Tyler Glasnow continues his strong start towards a Cy Young award while Chris Sale continues to trend in the right direction, but can't pitch well enough to keep up with Glasnow. Once we hit the bullpens the Rays will pull away for good.

Score: Tampa Bay 5 - Boston 2


**Best Picks: Tampa Bay ML+118, Tampa Bay RL-172 and UNDER 8-119**

Sunday Funday Free MLB Pick

**Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets (7:10 PM)**

ML: Milwaukee+163/New York-182  
RL: Milwaukee-135/New York+115  
O/U: O7.5-103/U7.5-117  
Chase Anderson (2-0 3.00 ERA) vs Jacob deGrom (2-2 3.68 ERA)

Key Trends:

- Milwaukee is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games.
- Milwaukee is 3-9 SU in their last 12 games when playing on the road against NY Mets.
- Milwaukee is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games this season.
- Milwaukee is 4-8 ATS on the road this season.
- New York is 14-10 ATS this season.

Prediction:

deGrom gets back on track today and starts pitching like the Cy Young winner he is. The Mets offense continues to score runs and should get a few runs off of Anderson no problem, and maybe a couple runs off of the Brewers pen. The Brewers score one on deGrom and add one more against the Mets bullpen, but not enough to win the game.

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Score:

Milwaukee 2 - New York 5

Best Picks: **New York ML-182 and New York RL+115**

MLB Free Pick! Friday 4/26/19

Last night began to see some normalcy set in with both favorites winning their games to take a 1-0 edge in the series. My hunch is the two teams tonight should follow suit.

**[Real-time NHL Odds](/go/bovada-nhl-odds)**

The Islanders-Hurricanes are in two different modes right now. The Islanders breezed through the first round with Pittsburgh and have had more than 10 days of rest. On the other hand, the Hurricanes just completed an exhausting and intense series with the Stanley Cup champions, winning in seven games which included a double-overtime thriller on Wednesday night. While there’s some concern with the Islanders rust, there’s bigger concern with Carolina and their energy level for game 1. They’ve traveled back home after their win and now have to travel back on the road for tonight’s game. Conventional wisdom says there should be a letdown factor.

Also going against the Hurricanes are the numbers. The Islanders have fared well against Carolina this year, going 3-1 against them. They’ve beaten them 2-1, 2-1 and 4-1, two of those being on the road. Carolina won the last meeting of the season, winning 4-3 in New York. The road team has had more success in this series, which will play into Carolina’s hands, winning five of the last six match-ups going back to 2018. 

The Islanders come in red hot overall, though. They are **8-1 in their last 9 games and 10-2 in their last 12**. Carolina is 7-3 in their last 10 games, so they also come in playing well. No big trends coming in on the Over/Under for this game between the two teams as they have split those in the last couple years. However, three of the meetings this year have been **under the total of 5.5 goals**. Also, six of the Islanders last seven games have been under the 5.5 goals for tonight. So there is a lean there, especially considering one team is potentially tired and another rusty.

Overall, the numbers do lean in the Islanders favor for tonight and the series overall, with a lean also on the under. I wouldn’t advise going huge on them as this is the NHL where anything goes, but I do think there’s some value on their side. Given the potential letdown factor for the Hurricanes tonight, I do like the Islanders for game 1. I also think they will prevail in the series. 

**Note:** Bovada is offering an exclusive signup bonus. [Get $250 free bet + 50% signup bonus](/go/bovada-mlb-bonus) (click to claim). Limited time, signup now! 

Prediction for tonight: **Islanders 3, Hurricanes 1**  
Series prediction: **Islanders in 6**


NY Islanders vs Carolina Hurricanes Free Pick, Game 1 + Series

**Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies (6:05 PM)**

ML: Miami+162/Philadelphia-180

RL: Miami-130/Philadelphia+110

O/U: O8-115/U8-105

Trevor Richards (0-3 3.72 ERA) vs Jake Arrieta (3-2 2.65 ERA)

**Key Trends:**

- Philadelphia is 11-5 SU in their last 16 games at home.
- Miami is 5-12 SU in their last 17 games.
- Miami is 5-10 SU in their last 15 games against Philadelphia.
- Philadelphia is 12-3 in their last 15 home games against Miami

**Prediction:**

Jake Arrieta will continue his great start to the season and only allow one or two runs to the Marlins across six-plus innings. Richards command will give him trouble and the Phillies will pile up the walks and as a result the runs. 

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Score: Miami 2 - Philadelphia 6

**Best Picks: Philadelphia ML-180 and Philadelphia RL+110**

Saturday's Free MLB Pick (MUST BET)!

One word to describe the first round of the 2019 NHL Playoffs? Unprecedented. 

The Tampa Bay Lightning, who tied for the most regular season wins in NHL history, were swept. The team with the second best record in the league, Calgary, was defeated with ease. All four division winners were defeated. Lastly, a record 7 of the 8 lower seeds all prevailed, and the one high seed that was victorious could be seen as an upset as the Islanders swept the Penguins, a team that had won two of the last three Stanley Cups. 

So with all that being said, how the heck do you predict round 2? There is no such thing as having a magic ball that can foresee the future and all these possible upsets. It’s no secret the NHL playoffs are the most difficult postseason of the four major sports to predict. Eventually, however, the belief is some normalcy will have to set in. At least you would think. I believe that starts with the Bruins series tonight against Columbus. 

The worst thing that may have happened to Columbus is they finished the Lightning too early. The Jackets have had over a week break and there are questions of whether they are too rusty. The Bruins, on the other hand, just finished a difficult seven game series with the Maple Leafs in which they rallied from a 3-2 deficit. The question surrounding Boston is whether they are tired or are they in rhythm winning three of their last 4 games?

**[Real-time NHL Odds](/go/bovada-nhl-odds)**

Instead of looking at tonight’s game, I’m looking more at the series value and I think getting **Boston at a -160 price is a good value**. Columbus matched up very well with Tampa Bay. They don’t match up quite as well with a bigger and  more physical team in Boston who are bigger and play a different style of hockey. While the regular season has proven to not have much stock in the playoffs so far, we still need to go by it when trying to forecast these games. We also have to look at past history.

What’s unusual is these two teams have actually played a lot of games against each other in the last month. All three of their meetings took place in March and Boston won the season series 2-1. Columbus won the first meeting at home 7-4, but Boston edged out Columbus at home 2-1 and then blew out the Jackets 6-2 on their home ice during the last week of the regular season. The two teams have split the last 10 meetings. As far as playoffs go, Columbus is 1-2 overall in their team’s history in the postseason. The Bruins, as you would expect, have a lot more experience and a lot more recent success. The Bruins are accustomed to playing late in the season and are 9-6 in postseason appearances over the last 10 years, including two Stanley Cup appearances. Some of those same players from the Stanley Cup seasons are still on this Bruins team.

Another side bet to look at tonight and throughout the series is the over. You always want to ride a trend until she bucks you, and the over has been a major trend in these two teams’ games in their last 10 meetings. **Nine of the last 10 games have resulted in an OVER**. Also, **nine of the last 10 games have resulted in at least seven total goals in the game**. With the over/under 5.5 tonight, you might as well ride trend. I would be cautious, however, in that you have a rusty team in Columbus against a potentially tired team in Boston, so there is some letdown potential tonight in the scoring. You still can’t ignore that trend.

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Best Bets:

- **Boston Over Columbus Series in the series (-160)**
- **Over 5.5 goals Game 1**

Boston vs. Columbus Free Pick, Game 1 and Series

Monday morning. After a long (and beautiful) betting weekend, we are right back to the grind of picking winners.

For today's free MLB over / under pick, we ran all matchups through our MLB betting system and have identified our "value". What does it mean to show value? This is bets that possibly give the bettor (you) and edge. And edges are what matters. This is what give us a long term, positive betting track record. Speaking of track records...the MLB betting system is picking around 69%. Profitability! Got love it.

OK, now that my rant is over...lets get to today's free MLB over under picks. Today, we turn our attention to the Anaheim Angels vs New York Yankees. The betting system is show this to be a high scoring matchup. Should we go with the OVER? I think so. Lets look at stats impacting the outcome of this game.

#### Match-up details:

- New York Yankees @ Anaheim Angels
- Start time: 10:07 PM ET
- Money line: NYY -110, ANA -110
- Run line: NYY -1.5 (+145), ANA +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 8.5
- [Live MLB Odds](/go/bovada-mlb-odds)

#### Starting pitchers:

-  J.A. Happ (LHP, 0-2, 7.23 ERA) 
- Matt Harvey (RHP, 0-2, 9.64 ERA) 

#### Yankees key stats:

- J.A. Happ has not pitched well this season. In 4 starts this season, he has averaged 4 innings and 4.5 runs per start
- Not surprisingly, 3 of the 4 starts have played to the over...
- Yankees bats again look as potent as ever. They are currently towards teh top of the league in most offensive stats. Here are some to note...
- On Base + Slugging % 0.806 (#6)
- Isolated Power 0.208 (#6)
- Home Run % 4.7% (#3)
- Walk %	10.4% (#6)
- What this tells us? Yankees score runs in bunches...
- The Yankees lineup has limited experience vs Harvey...but look for Gardner and DJ LeMahieu to have continued success.

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#### Angels key stats:

- As with Happ, Matt Harvey has not looked sharp...
- In 4 starts in 2019, he is averaging 5.25 in 4 2/3 innings! Ouch...
- Offensively, the Angels have left much to be desired. They rank around 20th in total offensive stats. They have a decent lineup, but it hasn't show in the box score.
- Anaheim's bullpen has been terrible. They currently have limited availability, and have allowed a 5.24 ERA in their last 3 games...

Sub-average starts + bad bullpens + solid offenses. This usually equals runs scored. With the total set at 8.5, I will take this OVER all day long. So should you. Good luck.

Predicted final score: NYY 7 - ANA 5

Best Bet: **OVER 8.5**

Yankees vs Angels Free MLB Over / Under Pick (4/22/19)

Tonight's Milwaukee at Detroit (8:00 PM ET) game 3 is showing nice value for a NBA over / under play. Lets look deeper into this matchup and see which stats are tipping the scales.

#### Odds/Line:

- MIL -9.5
- Over / Under 216
- [Live NBA Odds](/go/bovada-nba-odds)

#### Milwaukee key stats:

- The Bucks have a potent offense. No doubt about it. Statistically, they post gaudy numbers...
- Points/Game	118.2 (ranks #1 in NBA)
- Fastbreak Pts/Gm	17.9 (#6)
- Total Rebounds/Gm 57.5 (#1)
- In their last 9 games, Milwaukee has scored 120+ per game...
- Expect a similar output tonight..some where in the 120-125 range...

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#### Detroit key stats:

- With Milwaukee looking at 120+...Detroit needs to score 97 points. Can they do it? I think so...
- Detroit's offense leaves much to be desired. They want a slower paced game, that forces a grind it out type of flow...
- Will that be possible tonight? No way...
- On the season they average 106.7 (#25) per night.
- They are solid on the glass (rank 13 in total rebounding) and will look to capitalize on the boards tonight...

Look for Milwaukee to control this game. Detroit will be forced to play keep up and be forced to push the offensive end. This will create a game flow that will breach the 216 total set by the books. Take the OVER in this one. It looks like the solid play.

Predicted Score: MIL 121 - DET 107

Best Bet: **OVER 216**


Milwaukee Bucks vs Detroit Pistions, Free Over Under Pick (4/20/19)

Dare we go to well twice? I think so...

Last night we nailed the [free MLB Friday Over/Under pick on the Phillies vs. Rockies](/blog/osnII0V/phillies-vs-rockies--free-mlb-over-under-friday) game. Today, we are again seeing value in taking the UNDER. Here is the current game setup and some of the key stats that we think will affect the outcome of this game (and your UNDER wager).

#### Odds/Line:

- PHI -120
- COL +100
- ML: PHI -1.5 (+135), COL +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: 10.5
- [Live MLB Odds](/go/bovada-mlb-odds)

#### Starting pitchers:

- Aaron Nola (RHP, 1-0, 7.45) 
- Antonio Senzatela (RHP, 1-0, 1.35)

#### Phillies key stats:

- Again, the Phillies have shown to be an offensive juggernaut. But what has happened to their bats on this recent road trip...
- In their last 3 games, the Phillies haven't cracked 3 runs. Will this trend continue? I think so...
- Aaron Nola has not been great so far this season. In his 4 starts, all have played to the over...
- But Nola has been lights out in his career vs Colorado...
- In 2 career starts, Nola holds a 1.98 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. That's shutdown city.


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#### Rockies key stats:

- As we highlighted yesterday, the Rockies bats have been just OK through the 2019 season...they rank as follows:
- Runs/Game 3.42 (#27)
- On base % 0.275 (#28)
- On base + slugging (OPS) 0.629 (#26)
- Opponents batting Avg 0.236 (#12)
- Antonio Senzatela has one game started this season...and it was a good one.
- He shut down a potent San Diego lineup only allowing 6 hits over 6 2/3 innings.
- Expect him to be on point again today vs. Philly

This game looks to flow very similar to last night. Pitching will dominate this matchup and expect Phillies bats to stay asleep while away from Citizens Bank Ball park. Take the UNDER tonight and watch another low scoring affair.

Predicted score: PHI 4 - COL 3

Best Bet: **UNDER 10.5**

Phillies vs Rockies, Free MLB Over/Under Saturday (4/20/19)

Fridays. Is there a better day for MLB action?

For today's free over/under MLB pick, we ran all the games through our MLB betting system. This system takes MLB stats, odds and propbable pitchers...mixes it all otgether and tells us which are the best over /under plays of the day.

Today's free pick brings us to Colorado. This is the site of tonight's Phillies vs Rockies (8:40 PM ET) matchup. Now to the free pick and key stats leading to this best bet:

#### Odds/Line:

- PHI +135
- COL -155
- ML: PHI +1.5 (-140), COL -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 10.5
- [Live MLB Odds](/go/bovada-mlb-odds)

#### Starting pitchers:

- Vince Velasquez (RHP, 0-0, 2.25) 
- German Marquez (RHP, 2-1, 2.00) 

#### Phillies key stats:

- Vince Velasquez has pitched well on the season. In 2 games started, both have played to the UNDER (combine avg 5.5 runs per start)
- Phillies bullpen is fully available. They have pitched well on the season. In 57 total innings, they have allowed 3.06 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Very solid.
- Phillies rank towards the top of the league in most offensive categories...but how had away from home...
- In last night's game at COL, they struggled in a 6-2 loss.

#### Rockies key stats:

- Colorado's offense is nothing to write home about. They have struggled in 2019...
- Runs/Game 3.42 (#27)
- On base % 0.275 (#28)
- On base + slugging (OPS) 0.629 (#26)
- Opponents batting Avg 0.236 (#12)

Bonus stats: 

- Joe West is behind the plate tonight. He has umped 3 games...all have played UNDER.
- Under is 6-1-1 in COL last 8 overall

As you can see...Philly has a potent offense, but might find some trouble at Colorado. I would not expect a high scoring game tonight. You might see 8-9 total runs, but this one has potential to be a pitchers duel.

Predicted score: PHI 4 - COL 3

Best Bet: **UNDER 10.5**

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Phillies vs Rockies, Free MLB Over/Under Friday

Lets take a look at our most MLB free picks with the most value for today, April 18th 2019.

These Over/Under picks are pulled from our proprietary MLB betting system. It takes MLB stats and combines it with betting data to try to isloate the best plays of the day. On the season, its picking at about 68%.

Now, to the picks!

### Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays

#### Odds/Line:

- TOR +155
- MIN -180
- ML: MIN -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 8.5
- [Live MLB Odds](/go/bovada-mlb-odds)

#### Starting pitchers:

- TOR: Clay Buchholz (1.50 ERA)
- MIN: Michael Pineda (3.00 ERA)

#### Toronto Key stats:

- Team On Base + slugging (OPS): 0.638 (#25)
- Opponents OPS: 0.690 (#7)
- Bullpen availability: 7 days rest, 4.37 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (solid numbers)
- Buchholz career vs MIN: 67 IP, 3.76 ERA, 1.36 WHIP (very respectable)

#### Minnesota Key stats:

- Team On Base + slugging (OPS): 0.811 (#5)
- Opponents OPS: 0.691 (#8)	
- Opponents Batting Avg: 0.220 (#6)
- Bullpen availability: 6 days rest, 3.41 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
- Pineda career vs TOR: 74.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 1.34 WHIP (good numbers)

Both these teams have shown solid pitching and defense. Additionally, its get-away day! I would expect this one to be low scoring. Might have trouble breaking 7. Take the UNDER in this one.

Predicted final score: TOR 2 - MIN 4

Best Bet: **UNDER 8.5**

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MLB Free Over/Under Picks of the Day! (4/18/19)

**Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers (6:40 PM)**

ML: Pittsburgh-111/Detroit+101  
RL: Pittsburgh+148/Detroit-171  
O/U: O8-119/U8-101

Pitching Matchup:

Trevor Williams (1-0 2.45 ERA) PIT vs Spencer Turnbull (0-2 4.80 ERA) DET

Offensive Ranks:

- Runs: PIT 22nd, DET 29th
- Hits: PIT 18th, DET 26th
- HR: PIT 27th, DET 30th
- SB: PIT 6th, DET 21st

Defensive Ranks:

- ERA: PIT 2nd, DET 5th
- WHIP: PIT 3rd, DET 5th
- K/9: PIT 8th, DET 13th
- FLD%: PIT 26th, DET 7th

Final Score:

Pittsburgh 3 - Detroit 1

Best picks are **PIT ML-111, PIT RL+148, UNDER 8-101**

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MLB Free Pick Of The Day! 4/17/19

Home ice advantage may mean the least when it comes to the NHL Playoffs. However, certain teams seem to thrive in their home city. San Jose is one of those teams. 

One of the best home records in all the NHL this year, the Sharks won more than 2/3 of their games at the Shark Tank. The Knights, on the other hand, have not been stellar on the road this year with a losing record. While Vegas was able to win 2 out of their 3 road games at San Jose a year ago in the playoffs, this is not the same Vegas team from a year ago. The line still over-inflates them a bit based on their 2017-18 success. Vegas was the better team last year. It’s a different story this year. 

San Jose dominated game 1 with a 5-2 win and an impressive performance in front of their home fans. San Jose has won three out of their last four vs. Vegas and their last two against them at home. I don’t see much changing tonight. I would ride the Sharks again at home and I expect them to take a 2-0 lead heading to Vegas.

Best Bet: **San Jose Sharks -135**

San Jose Sharks vs Vegas Golden Knights, Free NHL Pick (4/12/19)

Calgary comes into the playoffs as the top seed in the Western Conference and playing a Colorado team they haven’t lost to since last year. The Flames won all three of the season contests and finished with a 26-10-5 home record, the third best in the NHL. Colorado, on the other hand, finished with a 17-16-8 road record.

This is the first time the Flames and Avalanche have met in the playoffs. The Flames made the playoffs a year ago but as a much weaker seed. They were swept in the first round by Anaheim. The Avalanche are also making their second straight appearance. They also were bounced in the first round a year ago by Nashville.

While -190 is not much value, it is the first game which I always recommend throwing caution to. 

Look at the Lightning last night; they had dominated Columbus all year and had a 3-0 lead early, but then within an hour they lost the game. You can also take a shot at +140 to win by 1.5 or bet it live when the odds usually drop to -1 after the puck drops. Then you can play win or push with Calgary.

Best Bet: **Calgary Flames -190**

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Calgary Flames vs. Colorado Avalanche, NHL Free Pick (04/11/19)

The NHL playoffs get underway tonight and so does the Tampa Bay Lightning’s quest for being hailed as of the all-time great NHL greats. The playoffs are always difficult to handicap because it’s technically a new season and many times underdogs end up winning, but when it comes to this matchup, talent has to be accounted for. And there is a major talent mismatch. 

The Lightning are 3-0 vs. the Blue Jackets this year outscoring them 17-3 (8-2, 4-0, 5-1). The Lightning have won their last 3 first round playoff matchups, and their last two under John Cooper have been won with ease, both ending in 5 games. The Blue Jackets have been on the other side of the success scale. They are 0-3 in all-time playoff series with a total record of 3-12. While this is their third straight year in the playoffs and they are gaining experience under former Lightning coach John Tortorella, they are simply way outmatched in this contest and the regular season performances show that. They always say ride a trend until she bucks you. Well, the Lightning trend has been blowing out the Jackets and I will keep riding it, even in the playoffs. 

#### [See all the latest NHL Playoff Odds Here](/go/bovada-nhl-odds)

As far as the series goes, there is some good value on a short series. You can get the **Lightning for +120 to win the series in 4 or 5 games**. If you want to be cautious and think they’ll win in 6 or less, you can get them at -200. To me, they’re all good bets. Tampa Bay has completely dominated the season series and should continue to dominate Columbus in April.

Best Bet: **Tampa Bay Series -2.5  games +120**

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Tampa Bay Lightning  vs. Columbus Blue Jackets  Free NHL Pick

Tuesday night baseball! A beautiful time for betting action...

Today's matchups provide several betting opportunities. We have run the list of today's games and have pick our favorite Free MLB pick for the betting community.

When the Arizona Diamondbacks meet the Texas Rangers (9:40 PM ET) at Chase Field...we are projected a high amount of runs scored. The game setup is as follows:

Zack Greinke (1-1, 9.31) vs Mike Minor (1-1, 4.63)  
ARI ML -147  
TEX ML +129  
Over/Under 8.5  

This matchup looks rip to easily breach the OVER 8.5 runs. Here are several factors that when into our handicapping...

Lets look at Arizona first:

- Zack Greinke has not been good so far this year...
- He currently sports a 9.31 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Not good
- Will this trend continue tonight? Its very possible...
- Arizona is allowing the 26th ranked OBP allowed (0.363) and 27th ranked OPS (0.862)...this reflects on their lousy pitching and defense.
- In head-to-head matchups, the Texas lineup has had success vs Grienke...
- Andrus, Cabrera, Choo, Pence - they all have .650+ OPS vs Grienke

For Texas:

- Mike Minor takes the hill sporting a 4.63 ERA...
- He has pitched decent, but the Texas bullpen has been a mess...
- Rangers relievers are posting a 1.59 WHIP on the season...if Minor gets knocked from the game - the flood gates will open
- Offensively, Texas ranks a respectable 10th in On-base % and 11th in runs per game...
- Defensively, Texas ranks 29th in runs allowed per game. Another sign of poor defense and pitching.

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In tonight's matchup, all signs are pointing to both offenses taking center stage. I certainly expect a high scoring game, where both starters could be out before the 5th inning.

Predicted score: Texas 5 - Arizona 7

Best bet: **OVER 8.5**

Diamondbacks vs Rangers, Tuesday MLB Free Pick (4/9/19)

MLB Monday's...great time to get some baseball action...

We have run today's slate of game through our proprietary MLB betting system. A few games stand out, but we have picked one to be today's Free MLB Pick.

For the Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals (7:05 PM ET) sportsbooks have set the odds as follows:

PHI -137  
WAS +120  
PHI -1.5 (+145)  

The OVER pops off the page when handicapping this matchup. Here are some stats that go into the algorithm that determines this:

- The Phillies are 4th in the league in runs scored (6.62 per)
- In On base % (which highly correlates with run totals) they rank 4th (.374%)...
- This is a huge stat when evaluating over/unders...
- In terms of defense, they have allowed opponents to score runs...
- Philly ranks 17th in on-base % allowed (.324)
- This is Vincent Velasquez's first start of 2019...he a 4.85 ERA last season. Not great. Bodes well for runs scored...
- The Nationals are playing decent on offense...they rank 10th in on-base % (.340) and 7th in runs per game (5.75 per)
- Washington is starting Anibel Sanchez today...
- In his first outing (vs. PHI) he allowed 4 runs in 4 innings pitched...
- In Sanchez's career vs Philly, he is allowing a whooping 1.47 WHIP. Wow.
- In 2 recent games vs the Phillies, they posted run totals of 10 and 17...

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Expect a similar result today. The weather is beautiful tonight in Philly and the crowd will be rocking. Expect both starters to give up 3+ runs. Both of these bullpens will need to pitch extended innings and will allow plenty of baseruns (and runs).

Predicted score: WAS 5 - PHI 8

Best Bet: **OVER 9**

Phillies vs Nationals, Free MLB Over/Under Pick

### Boston Bruins -120 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

No, you aren’t reading this wrong. 

I do like the Boston Bruins tonight over Tampa Bay, which is ironic because the Lightning have won me so much money this year. However, the Bruins have proven to be the Lightning’s kryptonite over the years on their home ice. They beat them this year 4-1 already in Boston and were dominating them in Tampa just a couple weeks ago before they blew a 4-1 lead. They are the one team in the playoffs that, in my opinion, can give Tampa Bay fits. They’ve matched them win for win in the closing stretch of months. T

his is a statement game for the Bruins and also a revenge game from the contests two weeks ago where they blew that lead. The Lightning do have an opportunity to match the Detroit Red Wings’ record 62 regular season wins if they win tonight. Boston would like to do all that they can to prevent them from celebrating that record on their home ice. Boston is 3-0 in their last three regular season home games against the Lightning and 4-1 in their last five. Boston is also 12-1 in their last 13 home games. Taking a chance going against what may be the best team in all of hockey, but I like the way Boston matches up with Tampa Bay, not just today, but in the playoffs. 

They are, in my opinion, their kryptonite.

Best pick: **Boston -120**


Boston Bruins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Free NHL Pick

Picking a golf champion is one of the hardest things to try to handicap and predict. The game isn’t what it used to be like where it’s the same handful of guys week in and week out that contend or win. It’s a much deeper field filled with a lot of inconsistent play. However, you look for certain signs that can help you. 

Last year, Patrick Reed was one of my five bets at Augusta and it landed me a nice payday. I also bet Brooks Koepka at the US Open and PGA. I was stupid, though, not to have Francesco Molinari as one of my picks at the Open as he was on my radar and went against what I look for in making a bet. 

One thing all those champions had in common last year is they went into their majors in great form. Reed was red hot going into Augusta, Koepka was playing solid going into the U.S. Open and PGA and Molinari was doing nothing but winning tournaments before The Open and posting top-5s. 

As far as strategy goes, you don’t ever want to say, “I think this guy is going to win” and hinge your hopes on that. Your goal should be first and foremost picking guys who you think can contend. Let their play and fate do the rest. It makes it all the more fun when Saturday comes around and your guy is in the hunt.  Another strategy is really to pick a handful of guys, not just one. It’s really hard to focus on just one pick as these things are so wide open. Also, don’t just pick favorites. Pick maybe a couple favorites, a couple guys in the middle and then maybe a couple longshots that are over 50-1. Longshots usually come through once a year, and in terms of the Masters, the last 3 champions all had higher than 33-1 odds. Reed was 50-1 last year, Garcia 33-1 the year before and Danny Willett at 50-1 in 2016. All three those guys also went into the Masters confident in their games.

**[2019 Masters Live Odds Here](/go/bovada-golf)**

All that being said, here are my five favorite plays for the 2019 Masters.

**Rory McIlroy 7-1**

I’m not usually one to say to go with a guy with this low of odds. It goes against my traditional way of thinking. The value usually isn’t there so I wouldn’t go crazy on this. However, the way Rory McIlroy is playing, how can you not consider putting money on him? First, there’s the hunger factor. McIlroy desperately wants a green jacket. It’s all that is standing between him and being a legend of golf. He is a green jacket away from becoming the 6th player to win the career grand slam. Secondly, there’s the form factor. Rory is playing by far better than anyone in the world right now. In his last 6 stroke play events, he’s finished T-4, T-5, T-4, 2nd, T-6 and 1st. Lastly, there’s his track record at Augusta. He has finished in the top-10 in each of the last 5 years and went into the back 9 on Sunday last year a stroke off the lead before he wilted on the back 9. Rory is my pick to win, but I’m not going to unload a lot on him as 7-1 is really low for golf.

**Rickie Fowler 22-1**

Okay, so have you ever made a futures bet on someone over and over again and they fail to come through, but you’re afraid to give up on them because you know the moment you stop betting them, they will win? Yeah, that guy is Rickie Fowler for me. I’ve bet him the last 4 years because I know he is going to win one eventually and want to make sure I have that ticket when he does. But I’m taking him for more reasons than just that. Rickie finished 2nd here last year and went into Sunday two years ago just one off the lead. He’s had a fantastic start to the year, winning in Phoenix and placing runner-up at The Honda a few weeks ago. He’s cooled off his last couple tournaments, but has still overall had a strong season up to this point. Like I said, it’s only a matter of time before he finally pulls through, and it’s going to be sooner rather than later. This is a great course for him and he’s brimming with some good confidence coming in and the odds on him are pretty high. I see him as more of a 15-1 shot. At 22-1, you’re getting some good value.

**Paul Casey 28-1**

Okay, so remember in the beginning I talked about the angle of picking a guy who you think will contend? Well, if I could place money on any one player to be there on the weekend, it’s Paul Casey. In his last 6 stroke play events, Casey has finished in the top-3 four times, including a win at Valspar.  In his last 13 events, he’s finished in the top-25 every time but twice. In his last four Masters starts, he’s finished T-6, T-4, T-6 and T-15, including finishing with a 65 last year. In other words, momentum is on his side in a big way. Casey has a great rapport with Augusta National and is ranked 11th in the world right now. For the 11th ranked player in the world to be 28-1 coming in with the form he has? I would call that some outstanding value. 

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## Best value picks

#### Kevin Kisner 80-1

Okay, so these odds are coming down fast so you need to scoop it while it’s hot. Kevin actually started at 150-1 a week ago and I got him at 100-1 and put $10 down immediately. He’s down to 80-1 and has probably dropped even more by the time you read this article. While I wouldn’t say to throw down your whole life savings on the guy, a small bet is worth it. Kevin is one of the sneaky good players on Tour and he’s coming in with great form. He was in contention at the Players and won the WGC Match Play last week. In his previous two major starts, he’s finished T-2 and T-12. 

While he has not fared great at Augusta, he is from Georgia and playing at the Masters is like playing in his backyard. I wouldn’t pick him over a guy like McIlroy to win the whole thing, but when you’re talking about value and looking for a good longshot to throw a few bucks on, I don’t see any better value on the board. The guy has the talent to win a major one day given his talent and consistent play. He’s been knocking on the door in three of his last 5 major starts, and this could be a “green” moment for the Georgia Bulldog.

Overall thoughts on some other guys.

**Tiger Woods 12-1**: I think I speak for everyone when I say I would love to see Tiger contend and win. However, 12-1 is not the right value for him, in my opinion. He’s more of a 25-1 shot but is getting 12-1 odds because of the name “Tiger”. I like him for a top-10 finish but not to win another green jacket. However, I will be pulling for him to be there on Sunday.

**Francesco Molinari 20-1**: I made this mistake last year when he came into the Open red hot and didn’t bet him. He’s coming in red hot again. Staying away from him at these odds, though. He hasn’t had a great track record at Augusta and he plays better when under the radar. Everyone putting him front and center now does not bode well for him, but I could be wrong.

**Jordan Spieth 22-1**: This is my “I have no idea” pick. You have to go back almost five years to find odds this high for Jordan Spieth. He’s usually one of the top favorites, especially at the Masters. Spieth’s game has been way off so a part of me feels like he has no chance. However, it’s the Masters and Spieth ALWAYS contends at the Masters. In his last five starts, he’s finished 2nd, 1st, 2nd, T-11, 3rd. (By the way, that T-11 came after being just one off the lead going into Sunday). That’s what I call one heck of an Augusta resume. I will probably make him my 5th play but place just $5 on him and roll the dice. At those odds, it’s worth a couple bucks.

**Patrick Reed 40-1**: The defending champion is not coming in with the same form from a year ago when I liked his chances. He’s struggling with his game and hasn’t posted one top 10 yet in 2019. Compare that with a year ago when he had posted six top-10s going into Augusta.

## Super Long Shots

Some good super long shot plays:  

Branden Grace 150-1  
Keith Mitchell 200-1  
Brian Harman 250-1  
Fred Couples 500-1  
Bernhard Langer 500-1

Best Bets, Values and Long Shots for Masters 2019 - Free Picks

Golden State -15.5  
Over Under 226

NBA Friday presents a full slate of games. This is to our gambling delight!

It gives sports bettors the chance to handicap several different games. Compare. Then, pick their best bet.

I had a look at the list of games. Ran them all through our NBA betting system. A few stood out...but after doing more analysis, only one became tonight's Free NBA pick of the night.

The Cleveland Cavs visit the Golden State warriors (10:30 PM ET). This matchup looks like another solid play at a Cleveland UNDER ([which hit last night](/blog/blog/grFcaw1/sacramento-vs-cleveland--thursday-free-nba-pick)).

Here are several reasons why the UNDER is looks like betting value:

- Cleveland is trending down...
- On this most recent road trip (this game 5 of 5)...they have average 108 per night.
- Last night their 29th ranked scoring offense could only muster 104 points vs a weak SAC defense...
- Kevin Love looks to sit again. This's 18ppg sitting on the bench...
- On the Golden State side...we know what their offense is capable of...
- But will they play inspired basketball tonight? I doubt it.
- The last two games Golden State has only averaged 112 per night
- Note this - DeMarcus Cousins plans to sit...another 16 per night riding pine.

Note - Looking for the best place to play NBA? I choose Bovada. Awesome site plus they offer a **[Free $250 wager with signup](/go/bovada-nba-bonus)** (click to claim)

Overall, this looks like another lack luster effort game from Cleveland. And trust me, its contagious. After jumping out to a big lead, expect Golden State to "take the air out of the ball" (burn clock). They will won't this one to end as soon as possible.

Predicted score: Cleveland 105 - Golden State 119  
Best Bet: **UNDER 226**

Cleveland vs Golden State Free Pick - NBA Friday

Start time: 10:00 PM ET <br />
Ducks money line: -155 <br/>
Ducks -1.5: +175 <br/>
Over/Under: 5.5


It’s not the sexiest card tonight in the NHL with just three games, and the Kings-Ducks offers a matchup of two teams who on the outside appear to have nothing to play for but pride. 

This will be the first time since 2003 that the Los Angeles area (L.A and Anaheim) won’t be sending a team to the playoffs.  However, on the inside, this is like a playoff game for the two teams. Separated by just 50 miles, these two teams do not like each other and the rivalry has provided some intense games this year with lots of fighting on the ice.

All that being said, Anaheim comes in with more momentum and with the game on their home ice. 

The Kings have won just 7 of their last 26 games and are 3-9 in their last 12 as a road underdog. The Ducks are coming off a two-game winning streak, including a win over the NHL’s second best team, Calgary. 

The home team has won four of the last five in this series and nine of the last 11 has been won by the favorite. Anaheim hasn’t beaten the Kings in three tries this year, one which includes a shootout loss, so they will be more energized to end the season with a win over their crosstown rival and have been the better playing team of late. 

Give me the Ducks to beat the Kings tonight straight-up.

Best Bet: **Anaheim Ducks -115**

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### Thoughts on rest of tonight's games...

As for what else is going on tonight, I am staying away from Columbus at the New York Rangers. I do think Columbus has everything to play for with their playoff lives on the line and the Rangers eliminated from contention, but -255 ML as a road favorite is too much for my blood. I’d rather get **live action on Columbus when it drops to -1 after the puck drops** and take the chance on a win or push. But not going to bet them at -1.5. 

Anaheim Ducks vs. Los Angeles Kings - Free NHL Pick 4/4/19

In this much anticipated matchup, the rivalry is extremely strong between these two titans. As things heat up, Cloud 9 are looking to assert that they deserve to head to the Mid-Season Invitational over any other team, while Team SoloMid are looking to showcase their overall skill and ride their hype train straight through the semi-finals, just like they did in the quarter-finals. Since this is just one of 2 matches this weekend, we will be taking a look a bit more in-depth at the teams, their playstyles, and what you can bet on for each side, as well as the overall spread.

## Individual Skill Matchups

In terms of individual skill matchups, both sides have strong points of interest. Most centers around the Midlane and Carry roles, with Bjergsen towering over Nisqy  in mid lane, and Sneaky and Zven matching in the bottom lane. 

The jungle role is a bit to be determined, as Akaadian has shown definite improvement in the past few matches for TSM, while Svenskeren and Blaber cover most of the stylistic changes that are needed to take on any adversary for C9.

The top lane will be a bit volatile in terms of who is the better player. Brokenblade has been on a hot streak for TSM, but has shown a few cracks here and there when it comes to pressured plays. Licorice, on the other hand, is either hot or cold. It’s a coin flip to see which one shows up for C9.

I would give the individual skill matchups to TSM. With their overall experience in terms of players, the laning phases will definitely swing in their favor.

Individal players to bet on for **TSM: Bjergsen, Broken Blade, Zven** <br/>
Individual Players to bet on for **C9: Sneaky, Svenskeren**

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## Macro Play

The team synergy is the largest question. TSM are holding onto the fact that they will stay with the same 5 members no matter what comes their way. As such, their overall synergy is extremely strong, and we’ve seen that increase lately through proactive plays and solid tower dives.

C9, on the other hand, is still attempting to come up with a solid roster. Although the international tournaments all allow for 1 substitute on board, they have been attempting to use a battery system, swapping out the mid lane and jungle as a duo each time around. Although they seem to have settled quite a bit on a playstyle, and have Nisqy in the mid lane to transition, it will still be a testament to whether or not they can make the jungle swaps a reality to be able to throw TSM off in the mid to late game.

Overall Head to Head: C9 +115: TSM -166

Overall, the win would be given to TSM due to their synergy and overall macro playstyle. Instead of focusing on high kill games, TSM have been known to play a solid, slowpaced game that can pick up speed at any time. They have come close to winning a game with an extremely low kill count simply through macro game exploitation of enemy mistakes and slow rotations. 

The main solution for C9 would be for them to press TSM in the early game. They have a full best of 5 series, and as such, they will need to abuse the early games to put TSM on tilt, and work their way up from there through Svenskeren and Sneaky.

Although the odds are quite close, taking a chance here would not be out of the realm of possibilities. If given a chance, C9 do have the possibility of running away with it. But, I would still give it to TSM in a full Best of 5 match.

My Bet: **Team SoloMid**


Cloud9 Vs. Team SoloMid - Free Picks - NA LCS Semi-Finals Day 1

### Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder (8:00 PM ET)

Monday. They are never fun. Especially if you reported to the office. But let's try to spice things up...and put some $$ in your pocket!

For tonight's NBA over/under play, we look to Oklahoma where the Thunder are hosting the Miami Heat at 8 PM ET.

Sports books have set this total at 210. We have run this matchup through our propitiatory NBA over / under tool (which has been hot lately) and find betting the OVER in this matchup is the play. Here is why...

For Miami, they hit the road after a long 5 game home stand. During this stretch, they averaged 113 points per game. Tonight they face a 15 ranked scoring defense of the Thunder (allowing 110 per game). I fully expect Miami to continue their offensive consistency and put up 110-14 tonight.

For Oklahoma City, their offense is solid. They rank 4th in league is points scored (114 per night). On their home floor, they average a point better. Even against Miami's 3rd ranked defense (allowing 105 per) I expect Oklahoma City to post in the 110-113 point range.

In terms of recent trends, these teams met only 35 days ago (in Oklahoma) and totaled 220 points.

Another interesting trend we found...and this one carries a lot of weight with me:

- Over is 14-4 in Heat last 18 games playing on 0 days rest. 

This tells me the Heat tend to get tired legs on back-to-backs. Look for their defense to be on the softer side.

For tonight's Heat vs Thunder game - we should see a total on in the 220-220 area. Take the OVER.

Predicted score: MIA 110 - OKLA 115

Best Bet: **OVER 210**

Over Under play for Monday's NBA Action

### Philadelphia 76ers @ Milwaukee Bucks (3:00 PM ET on ABC)

Line: MIL -6.5 <br/>
Over/Under: 233

Today's NBA prime time manatee brings us the Philadelphia 76ers visiting the Milwaukee Bucks.

When we run our proprietary NBA over/under betting system, this matchup is showing us a nice betting opportunity.

These 2 teams rank towards the top of NBA scoring output. Philly ranks 4th (115 per game) and Milwaukee ranks 2nd (118 per game). Don't expect the scoring to stop today (especially in the bright lights of prime time NBA on ABC).

For the 76ers - they hit the road after a three game home stand. During this home stretch, Philly averaged 111 per game. In this matchup, the over/under system is telling us to expect a similar output.

For the Bucks, scoring is not an issue. For their last 3 contests, they are averaging 119 points per game. I don't anticipate this trend changing today. At home, vs the Philly's 16th ranked scoring defense? Expect around 117-120 points by Milwaukee.

In terms of trends, here are some recent trends that matter:

- Over is 10-2 in Bucks last 12 Sunday games.
- Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. 
- Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Milwaukee. 

Sportsbooks have set this total at 233 for this potential high scoring matchup. Our projects show this scoring coming in higher. Expect a fun, fast paced game, with plenty of offensive possessions (which obviously converts to points!).

Project score: PHI 115 - MIL 121

Best Bet: **OVER 232**

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Sunday Prime Time NBA Picks - Bucks vs Sixers

### Houston vs Memphis (3:00 PM)

Spread: Houston-8.5
O/U: 148.5

It's the semi-finals of the American. Houston is coming off of a near 40-point win against UCONN and Memphis knocked off a good UCF team by 24.

Today's game is actually in Memphis, so the crowd will be a huge factor tonight. 

Memphis ranks 70th in the nation in points while Houston comes in at 18th. On the defensive side Memphis ranks 81st and Houston is 14th.

The big difference though is in the pace of play. Memphis averages 74.5 possessions per game (6th most in the nation) while Houston manages 66.6 (237th).

The fast-paced Tigers on their home court will be a tough team to take down, even for a team like Houston. Expect momentum to shift back-and-forth throughout and Memphis will take Houston down to the wire but will fall one bucket short in the end.

Houston 74 - Memphis 71

Best pick is **MEMPHIS +8.5**

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### Texas Southern vs Prairie View (6:00 PM)

Spread: Texas Southern-1
O/U: 159.5

The SWAC finals feature two teams that could each cause a few problems for their first-round opponent in the NCAA Tournament. Both are fast-paced teams that have a lot of high scoring games.

Texas Southern is the 4th fastest paced team in the country while Prairie View is not far behind at 34th.

Five of the last six Prairie View games have gone over.

Texas Southern is playing their best basketball of the season winning 9 of their last 10.

Five of their last eight games Texas Southern has shot over 51% from the field.

This will turn out to be a high scoring affair that will be a final possession type game. I expect this over to cover with a couple of minutes left in the game. Our formula projects a total score of 170 points.

Texas Southern 86 - Prairie View 84

Best pick is **OVER 159.5**



Two Saturday Bets To Go Big On

### New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs (8:30 PM ET)

Line: SA -13.5
Over / Under: 214.5

OK, lets just be honest right off the bat. New York will struggle to score 100. Over the Knicks last 4 games, they have struggled to breach the century mark. Does that bode well for a high total? No way.

Our proprietary NBA Over / Under betting system is showing us good value on the Knicks at Spurs UNDER. Here is why...

Unsurprisingly, the Knicks rank towards the bottom of the league in scoring, averaging 105 per night. 

New York has play to the UNDER in last 5 game overall. In this stretch, their game total points hasn't topped 229.

Looking at San Antonio - they will score in the 110-115 range. They currently rank 16th in the league, averaging 112 per game.

The Spurs are also capable of shutting out opponents. Over their last 3 games, they have limited opponents to 107 per game. This trend should continue tonight.

Go with the UNDER in tonight's Knicks vs Spurs match. This game should be a brutal offensive display, and hard to watch at times. Turn this into a profitable scenario.

Final score New York 98 - San Antonio 112

**Bet UNDER 213**

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Friday Night NBA Over Under Play of the Night

### Golden Guardians Vs. Clutch Gaming:
Odds: 1.645 : 2.270

Although fairly close in the standings, Golden Guardians has seen a bit more success over Clutch Gaming. Both teams still have quite a bit of room to work with before locking in their playoffs spot, so this match could determine who will be facing the heavier opponents.
Clutch Gaming defeated Golden Guardians in week 5.

Given the recent patches and how both teams have faired throughout the entirety of the season, the odds are quite fair. Overall, both teams have excellent individual players with decent skill, but have yet to fully synergize their talents together to make proper batteries to power the team to a solid victory. As such, the game is a slight toss up, with Golden Guardians have a slightly heavier stacked roster.

My Pick: **Golden Guardians**

### Cloud9 Vs. Optic Gaming:
Odds: 1.344 : 3.290

Cloud9 are still one of the most dominant teams in North America, as they have been with the other monstrous powerhouses that are Team Liquid and Team SoloMid. Optic, on the other hand, are still looking to find their true team synergy, and will need to work a bit harder to be able to come out with a playoff position.
Cloud9 defeated Optic in week 4.

Given the circumstances, Cloud9 will be looking to retain their 2nd place standing, and are hoping to carry that over into a playoff bye. As such, losing to Optic is completely out of the question for them. Optic not only hold fewer star players, but have been seen to shut down almost completely when the game doesn’t go their way, or if they start losing leads.

My Pick: **Cloud9**

### 100 Thieves Vs. Echo Fox:

Odds: 1.709 : 2.160

The fight for last place is one to watch as 100 Thieves and Echo Fox find themselves not wanting to be known as the loser team. Both sit with a record of 4-10, and both look to be in complete disarray.
Echo Fox won over 100 Thieves in their week 4 match.

As both teams have looked completely out of sync, it really is more of a 50-50 shot at who will come out on top. Either the game will be a complete kill fiesta, or it will be neither team wanting to make a move. With that, it is definitely not a bad idea attempting to bet on Echo Fox, if they are able to pick on the bottom lane and top to put 100 Thieves’ shotcalling to rest.

My Pick: **Echo Fox*

### Team Liquid Vs. FlyQuest:

Odds: 1.273 : 3.810

Team Liquid versus FlyQuest is one of the last chances for a team to put a loss on Team Liquid’s record. As the 4th place team coming into week 8, FlyQuest are hoping to show some more chinks in the Team Liquid armor.

Team Liquid beat FlyQuest in week 3.
Although I say that FlyQuest are one of the last teams to possibly defeat Team Liquid, that doesn’t mean I think they have an actual chance. Given their track record, and how strong Team Liquid currently are, the odds of close to 1 to 4 in favor of Liquid are rightly deserved. Expect FlyQuest to put up a decent fight, with a flailing ending to it all by Team Liquid.

My Pick: **Team Liquid**

### Counter Logic Gaming Vs. Team SoloMid:

Odds: 3.810 : 1.273

CLG and TSM used to be household names. At one point, they both were considered to be the absolute most dominant teams in North America before Team Liquid and Cloud9 came along. Nowadays, Team SoloMid are fairing a bit better, but Counter Logic Gaming seemed to have really countered themselves with their recent play.

Team SoloMid defeated Counter Logic Gaming in week 5 of the season.

With the lineup that Team SoloMid currently has, there are almost no chances for Counter Logic Gaming to poke a hole through. Biofrost has definitely been lackluster, and will most likely not be getting revenge on his former team, and will have to settle with watching his nexus burn. Their one possible hope is abusing the top lane in ganks and 2v1s, hoping that Darshan will have a glimpse of his former glory as ZionSpartan.

My Pick: **Team SoloMid**

NA LCS Spring Split 2019: Week 8 Day 2 - Free Picks and Odds

### Optic Gaming Vs. Counter Logic Gaming: <br/>

Odds: 1.571 (-182) : 2.429 (+130)

(Live Bovada eSports odds)

Optic Gaming and CLG have both had a very rough season. Then again, so has most of the North American scene. With 6 of the 10 teams under a 50% winrate currently, it’s not great to look at.

Optic sit tied at 5th place, while CLG are tied in 7th.

Optic won over CLG in their first matchup in January.

As both have been quite shaky, there is room for a potential win from Counter Logic Gaming. If CLG are able to pick out the individual weaknesses of Optic, they can power through the mid to late game, while keeping Optic completely out. The new patches have also shaken things up, causing a stir with many of the teams.

My Pick: **Counter Logic Gaming**

### Clutch Gaming Vs. Team Liquid: <br />
Odds: 5.630 : 1.149

Of week 8, this is the most lopsided matchup that will be played. Team Liquid currently sit at 1st place, with Clutch Gaming sitting at 7th place, tied with CLG.

Team Liquid won the first match against Clutch Gaming in the first half of the split.

There isn’t much to talk about here. Team Liquid have not dropped a single game after their loss to Team Solomid, and they definitely don’t seem like they plan to any time soon. With both individual skill, as well as extensive Macro game plays, Clutch Gaming have next to no options except to roll over and play dead.

My Pick: **Team Liquid**

### Echo Fox Vs. Cloud9:
Odds: 4.650:1.201

Another mismatch of the week, Echo Fox currently sit at the bottom of the standings, with Cloud9 at the 2nd place spot. 

Cloud9 won the head to head match against Echo Fox back in week 4.

Cloud9 are a shoe-in for this win, just as Team Liquid are for their match for day 1. Echo Fox has been going through massive trials that have seen them roster swap and change in-game playstyles per each patch faster than any other team. As such, their coordination is everywhere, making them have almost no chance of coming out on top in this game.

My Pick: **Cloud9**

### Team SoloMid Vs. Golden Guardians:
Odds: 1.411 : 2.950

Team SoloMid is the only 3rd place team where I would say that every other team has a shot at beating them. No matter where they are in the season, there is almost always a coin flip of possibly winning or losing the match, whether due to their own mistakes, or allowing the other team to overpower them. Golden Guardians, on the other hand, have been showing glimmers of hope in recent weeks as they surged to their 5th place tie with Optic.

Golden Guardians won their head to head match in week 3 against Team Solomid.

Although Team Solomid had strong macro-game presence all throughout their first match against Golden Guardians, their teamfighting and easy donations over to Golden Guardians spelled doom in the later stages of the game where tanks and full damage dealers thrive at 5 to 6 items. But, in this second half of the season, the meta has shifted drastically to shorter games. This means Team SoloMid have a much stronger chance of finishing the game with macro rotations and fewer teamfights. They also have seen a rise in their synergy and team play.

My Pick: **Team SoloMid**

### FlyQuest Vs. 100 Thieves:
Odds: 1.534 : 2.520

100 Thieves have looked absolutely abysmal as of late. Having fallen far in the standings, many are wondering if the likes of Aphromoo and Bang are too washed up to compete at the highest level. FlyQuest, on the other hand, have looked quite strong, holding a 50% winrate in the league so far, and hoping to continue to secure their playoff berth.

FlyQuest beat 100 Thieves in their week 4 matchup.

With 100 Thieves looking completely lost and without a paddle, look for FlyQuest to run away with the game. There has been almost no coordination between the players of 100 Thieves, signifying that there will most likely be no macro game in the mid to late either.

My Pick: **FlyQuest**

NA LCS Spring Split 2019: Week 8 Day 1 Free Picks and Betting Odds

### Golden State Warriors at Houston Rocket (9:30PM ET)

For the Rockets vs Warriors, sportsbooks have set the [over/under total at 230](/odds/nba/031319). (2nd highest total on the board for tonight's games)

Our custom NBA Over/Under tools shows that this game will play to a total *below* the sportsbook over/under.

In their last 8 meetings, Houston vs Golden State has only played over 230 once...and this game went to overtime (on Jan 3rd).

Golden State alone has been hitting consistently paying of Under bettors. The Warriors have hit on 5 straight unders...and 7 of their last 9.

For Houston, under have been cashing, too. In their last 6 games, only 1 has gone over a 230 total (231 total vs CHA on 2/27).

Some more UNDER trends worth noting:

- Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. 
- Under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Houston. 
- Under is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Warriors last 6 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. 
- Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 games following a ATS win. 
- Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. 

Continue to bang the UNDER in tonight's Warriors vs Rockets game. Our custom NBA Over/Under algorithm projects the total score around 225.

Warriors 110 - Rockets 115

**Best Pick is UNDER 230**

Wednesday NBA Best Over/Under Picks of the Night

### Appalachian State vs UL-Monroe (8:00 PM)

Spread: UL-Mon -7.5
O/U: 156.5

This is the first game of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament for each team. The two teams played at the end of February, a game that UL-Mon won 81-75, so as you can see, the spread and O/U are very similar to the final score of the last meeting.

As most of you know, conference tournaments are a different story. Teams play with a different kind of passion and intensity, knowing that this could be their last game of the season, and possibly their careers for the Seniors. 

Despite the difference in record, these two teams are actually not too far off in terms of efficiency rankings, (App St. 204 and UL-Mon 145). So while most of the early money in on UL-Mon, this game may not be as clear-cut as many people may think.

We now look at the O/U. UL-Mon is 39th in the country in scoring and App St. is a modest 148th, still in the top 42% of the country. Defensively, both teams are near the bottom. App St. is 264th in the nation in points allowed, while UL-Mon is 283rd. Throw in the fact that App St. is the 30th fastest team in the country in terms of pace, and this game has the recipe to be a high scoring affair.

Much like yesterday's Gonzaga/Pepperdine game, the spread may land too close and come down to a final basket either way, but the O/U should be the easiest bet to cover. We see this game scoring a total of 167 points.

App St. 79 - UL-Mon 88

**Best pick is Over 156.5**

### North Dakota St. vs Omaha (9:00 PM)

Spread: Omaha -3.5
O/U: 144.5

It's the Summit League Championship tonight. Both teams are playing for a chance to get into the NCAA tourney so expect this game to be a hard-fought aggressive match-up.

Omaha is 58th in the country in scoring at 110.5 points per 100 possessions, while ND St. is 137th at 106.4 points per possession. Both teams are bad on defense (Omaha 285th in the country, ND St. 292nd), so the points should be able to pile up in this game fairly easily.

Throw in the aggressiveness of the championship game and expect a lot of free throws to be what helps push this game over. We expect to see 156 points this game.

ND St. 77 - Omaha 79

**Best pick is Over 144.5**

Two Conference Tournament Games To Put Your Money On

## Pepperdine vs Gonzaga (9:00 PM)

Spread: Gonzaga-23.5
O/U: 157

Gonzaga is riding a 36 game winning streak against Pepperdine, and it is all but a guarantee to hit 37 tonight. A 24 point win though could be tough. 

Pepperdine is coming off their best performance of the year Saturday when they won by 17 against San Francisco. Gonzaga, on the other hand, hasn't played since March 2. That makes this game tough to call, in terms of the spread.

The O/U is a different story. Gonzaga is #1 in the country in points per 100 possessions (127.6). Pepperdine knows they will need to score in bunches to have even the smallest chance of competing in this game. Pepperdine guard Colbey Ross is a player to watch in this game, averaging 19.4 points and 7.2 assists per game and will try and take over today for Pepperdine.

With both teams in the Top 70 in terms of possessions per game, I expect this game to be a fast-paced scoring affair that lands too close to the spread for comfort but should cover the O/U with ease. Our formula projects 169 points. 

*Pepperdine 72 - Gonzaga 97*

**Best pick is Over 157**

Pepperdine vs Gonzaga - Monday's Best Bet Of The Day

## Duke vs North Carolina (6:00 PM)

Spread: UNC-4.5 O/U:167

Duke may not be the same team without Zion Williamson. However, we know that Cam Reddish is the best player in college basketball not named Zion Williamson. 

It may be Senior Night at Chapel Hill, but now Duke has had some time to learn how to play without Zion. Coming off a close win against Wake Forest at home, Duke knows that they need to bring their A-game today in order to win and prove they still deserve a #1 seed come March Madness.

Expect a Duke team that still has 4 of the best players in the country to bring it to North Carolina today and make this a final possession game where Duke will fall just one basket short. Our NCAAB formula predicts Duke covers this game, although UNC still wins it.

Duke 84 - North Carolina 85

**Best pick is Duke +4.5**



## Oklahoma vs Kansas State (6:00 PM)

Spread: KST-7.5 O/U: 127.5

Kansas State is looking to capture the BIG 12 title with a win today. The added emotion of Senior Night should have Kansas State fired up to play their best basketball, and their best basketball is all about defense. 

Kansas State is sixth in the nation in points allowed and Oklahoma is a rather good defensive team as well, 21st in the nation. Neither team is in the Top 60 in scoring in the country and Kansas State is one of the slowest paced teams in the NCAA at only 63.2 possessions per game (340th).

This is an important game for both teams, so expect the pace to slow down for most of this game as both teams try to make every possession count.

Oklahoma 59 - Kansas State 65

**Best pick is Under 127.5**



## Vanderbilt vs LSU (8:30 PM)

Spread: LSU-14 O/U: 146

It doesn't matter who is coaching this game for LSU, at home against a dreadful Vanderbilt team, this very talented LSU team should dominate this game from the tip. 

The Tigers are 12th in the nation in scoring while the Commodores are 210th. In terms of efficiency, LSU is 17th in the nation while Vanderbilt is 146th. 

The Tigers should be able to run up and down the floor at will and once they pull ahead of Vanderbilt, expect them to not let up. Expect the Tigers to pile on the points in this matchup in order to show the Selection Committee that they deserve a Top 4 seed come March Madness time. Letting a team like Vanderbilt hang around is something the Tigers know they can't let happen.

Vanderbilt 64 - LSU 83

**Best pick is LSU-14**

Saturday's NCAAB Bets Of The Day

For tonight's free Insider Pick of the Day - we look at college basketball and Citadel vs Samford.

Game start Time: 7:30PM

The sportsbooks set the Over/Under total for at 164.

Metrics wise, both are fast paced teams. Citadel is 337th in the nation in points allowed and Samford is 175th.

At 69.3 (Samford) and 73.7 (Citadel) both are averaging a high number of possessions per game. This trend should carry over into tonight's matchup.

In their last matchup (02/23/19), the totaled 170 points combined.

Running our proprietary NCAA basketball formula, we expect **174 points** to be scored in this game.

For the Insider Pick of the Day - **Take Citadel vs Samford over 164 points.**

We hope all your wagers are profitable ones. Good luck!

Citadel/Samford Over 164 - Insider Pick of The Day for 3/8/19

Here at OnlineWagerReview, we have several betting tools available to players. Over the course of our 10+ years history, we have shown our clients many successful betting strategies and free picks.

In addition to our proprietary [NFL Betting System](/betting-system), OnlineWagerReview.com is now offering a custom Over / Under betting tool. This tool is only available through private pilots, but we can now provide our users with these custom picks...that have shown tons of success!!

On the season, the **over / under betting tool is picking over 70%!**

In this post, lets review some of the best over / under picks for week 16 of the NFL season. Several of these picks we have high confidence in. So we are excited to share with our users...

One side note - I bet this system personally! Week in and week out, I place bets on this picks in my personal account. We are not some hacks that just make random picks every night. Every pick you see on this site...i have made a wager on it personally! (good new is - my personal betting account is still very well funded!)

OK, preamble over. Lets jump right into the picks.

Note - if your looking for a new sportsbook bonus, be sure to check out our **[top NFL sportsbook for the post season](/blog/mp4Vm0N/top-3-sportsbook-bonuses-for-the-2018-nfl-playoffs)**. This will help you maximize your NFL betting dollars this post season.

### Washington at Tennessee OVER 37

I know, I totally hear you. Titans vs Redskins, how could either of these 2 teams muster any points? Yes...that is exactly what the books want you to feel...

But for this week 16 matchup, go not be surprised if these 2 teams are able to crack the OVER set by the books. 

When we see a number of 37, realize this - we are only looking for 5 TDs in the game. If the defenses play well, and you see some good field position, this starts to look very possible.

One important stat to highlight - Tennessee is averaging 7+ yards per pass attempt at home. This is a key statistic. The Titans have shown the ability to score in their building. Tennessee reaching 28-31 points would not be a stretch.

### Cincinnati at Cleveland UNDER 44.5

Now, lets move the other side of the coin...

The Bengals vs Browns game looks to be a "clunker". Do not expect a high scoring affair in this one...

Looking at some of the numbers behind the game...since losing Andy Dalton, the Bengals have been ice cold. They are currently averaging a dismal 4.9 yards per pass in their last 3 games. This is bottom 3 in the league.

The Brown's offense has been nothing to write home about either. On the season, Cleveland ranks 21nd in yards per pass attempt. While at home, they rank in the bottom 5.

Expect a slow moving field position game in this one. For these teams to combine for 6+ TDs...I would expect that to be very hard to come by.

Free Over Under NFL Picks for Week 16 - NFL 2018

Thanksgiving 2018 is only 2 days away. Not only is this a great time for family and friends (and food!) but its also a great time for NFL football.

Week 12 is a pivotal point in the season. Some .500 teams will be making a push for the playoffs. And these teams might be somewhat "underrated" in the eyes of the betting public.

These types of situation create excellent betting opportunities. And as always, we will be ready to take advantage of any betting value we see.

For this Thanksgiving day Thursday slate of games - we ran the numbers through our proprietary [NFL betting system](/betting-system), and are seeing excellent value on all the underdogs. Let me say it again...excellent value on ALL the dog. Let talk more about the individual games, and what the betting system is telling us.

### Bears at Lions (+4.5)

For the first game, you have the tradition Lions Thanksgiving day game. Always a home game, the Lions have been more competitive of late (winning a nail bitter at home vs the Panthers last week).

The Bears are hot and getting a lot of attention in betting circles. But one could argue that this "hype" has bettor a little to excited to place their money on the Windy City faithful.

After review the betting system, I will put my money on the **home dogs Lions getting 4.5 points**. I rate the lions as a "medium" confidence level. This is a solid value play, in which Detroit could still love the game (by 4 or less) and you still get to cash a ticket.

<img src="https://image.ibb.co/m2ZAQV/image.png" class="ui image">

### Redskins at Cowboys (-7.5)

The 2nd matchup has 2 teams moving (perceptively) in different directions...

One one hand you have the Cowboys - coming off 2 straight impressive victories (at Eagles and at Falcons), the NFL commentators and TV programs are a buzz about the "resurgent" Cowboys.

On the other side, you have the failing Redskins. They just lost their "franchise" QB to a broken leg, and need Colt McCoy to lead the playoff push for the final 6 games.

Perception of these 2 dynamics gets you a 7.5 point line. But is this reality?

From my perspective, I think these are two basically evenly matched teams. Maybe Cowboys are a slight bit better. Remember - the Cowboys just got embarrassed 3 weeks ago, at home, vs TEN, on prime-time TV.

When we run the number through the betting system, we get a similar recommendation. Take the **Redskins and the 7.5 points**. This game might be a lot closer than you think.

<img src="https://image.ibb.co/dGpmhA/image.png" class="ui image">

Thanksgiving 2018 NFL Free Picks - Underdogs look like good plays

For this weeks NFL Thursday Night game, we find 2 NFC East rivals squaring off - the Philadelphia Eagles at the New York Football Giants.

As in most Thursday Night games - NFL bettors are itching for some action. But, we dont want to bet just to bet. Let's do some analysis. Let's take a look at the matchup and our betting system to see if we can find some value in betting this Thursday night NFL game.

Let's dive right in to our analysis of Thrusday Night NFL free pick:

## Emotional Edge

Entering this game, both teams are in what you might call "must win territory". When we look at the [NFC East standings](https://www.nfl.com/standings), both teams are in the proverbial cellar:

<img src="https://image.ibb.co/juZOm9/image.png" alt="image" border="0" class="ui image medium fluid my-3">

The Giants are coming off a roller coaster emotional loss to the Panthers, where a last second 63 field goal sealed their fate (as a loss).

The Eagles are trying to bounce back from a home loss to the reeling Vikings. It was a smash mouth affair, where the Vikings were just too much for the Eagles to handle.

In this contest, I would give the slight emotional edge to the Giants. This is a home game, versus a hated divisional rival. They see the line and realize they are home underdogs for this contest. (no team likes being home dogs. They feel disrespected.

## Betting system says...

When we analyze [our NFL betting system](http://www.onlinewagerreview.com/betting-system), it tells us this is a pretty accurate line. We have the spread set at Philadelphia -4.5 (the books have the line at PHI -3).

<img src="https://image.ibb.co/iHfPtp/image.png" alt="image" border="0" class="ui image medium my-3">

For a contest such as this, its very hard to not take into consideration the emotional side of the game. The betting system we use does a good job of this, but Thursday's game could be an extreme example. Emotions will be running high. 

In these scenarios - "Analytics" on spreads and betting system algorithms go right out the window.

More on this in the conclusion...

## Over Under Analysis:

One of our news toys - [Over/Under Betting tool](http://www.reportsdfs.com/nfl/betting/over-under-tool)! We have been testing this report out, and its been VERY accurate.

Currently, its hosted at one our sister sites - [ReportsDFS.com](http://www.reportsdfs.com/nfl/betting/over-under-tool). But in the coming days, we will be combining this report with our other betting system tools.

When reviewing this report, understanding the output is easy:

- When a game has a high "Over/Under Rating" - OVER is a better bet
- When a game has a low "Over/Under Rating" - UNDER is a better bet

For this Giants vs Eagles matchup, here is the matchup in the Over/Under Betting tool:

<a href="https://ibb.co/fQ0ztp"><img src="https://image.ibb.co/i72CDp/image.png" alt="image" border="0" class="ui image medium my-3"></a>

As you can see, when we sort Week 6 games by "Over/Under Rating" we see that Eagles vs Giants is rated at "0.1". What that means is - This over / under total is well set.

Bottom line - there is no advantage to betting the over / under of this matchup. Don't be surprised if the total comes in right at 44 points (or a few points +/-).

## Free Pick Conclusion

As many of our long time readers know, we have a mantra here at OnlineWagerReview:

[Never bet just for the sake of betting](http://www.onlinewagerreview.com/blog/HefP2N4/football-betting-letters---part-1). Translation - only bet when you have an edge.

In tonight's matchup, we don't see a large bettors edge in either direction. We don't strongly advise making a wager on this game.

But...if you want to play the emotional side of the game - here is our advice:

Do not be surprised if this is an Eagle victory by 2-4 points. If you want to place a wager on the spread, try to find the **Giants +3.5**. This is they way I would lean. If you can find that 1/2 point, it will make a huge difference if its a 3 point PHI victory.

- Avoid the over / under
- Spread will well set (no real bettor advantage)
- Giants have the emotional edge...
- Bet the Giants at +3.5 (if you can find it)
- Eagles to win (money line)

Good luck!

Giants vs Eagles, Free Thursday Night NFL Pick

Let's get ready for Week 6 NFL action! We have crunched the numbers and ran all matchups through our custom NFL betting system algorithms. Here we will analyze the results of our findings.

If you would like to learn more about our [NFL betting system](http://www.onlinewagerreview.com/betting-system/), please check it out for free! Limited time offer, we will take new users at no charge. Our NFL betting system is currently hovering around 70% success rate on the season! Get on board now, and win some money.

One of the immediate standouts from our analysis is the Bear at Dolphins game. Books currently have the Dolphins as a 3 point home dog. Does an NFL bettor have an edge if he takes the points vs the Bears? Lets find out more...

So, without further delay, lets jump right in and discuss best NFL free picks for week 6 of 2018!

## Miami Dolphins +3 vs Chicago Bears Free Pick

Yes, we get it. The Bears are playing well. They enter this contest with a 3-1 record, leading the NFC North. They have impressive wins versus Seattle and Tampa Bay (last time out, in week 4). Their only loss was a 23-24 nail bitter week 1 in Green Bay.

<a href="https://ibb.co/hpvbB9"><img src="https://preview.ibb.co/h4LXjU/image.png" alt="image" border="0"></a>

Now coming off their bye, the public is itching to put their money on the Bears. They are the hot team. But should we be laying 3 points in Miami? This looks aggressive to me. And on the flip side, the Dolphins look to have value +3.

Looking at the Dolphins, they are no slouches. They currently sit in 2nd place in the AFC East (behind the Patriots). They are 3-2 on the season, with quality wins vs TEN. Both thier losses came on the road, versus solid teams (@NE and @CIN).

<a href="https://imgbb.com/"><img src="https://image.ibb.co/hUDA4U/image.png" alt="image" border="0"></a>

Coming off a touch loss last week, I would expect them to rebound nicely at home. They should enter this contest with the emotional edge, realizing that they are 3 point dogs at home. (teams never like to be disrespected, they usually have an edge in these scenarios).

The key stat we watch in our [betting system](http://www.onlinewagerreview.com/betting-system/) is **Yard Per Pass attempt**. When we comparing these teams offensively, the Dolphins have the edge:

<a href="https://imgbb.com/"><img src="https://image.ibb.co/m3CWB9/image.png" alt="image" border="0"></a>

Miami ranks 12th in the league (at a very respectable 7.1 yards per pass). This is 8 spots above Chicago, who ranks 20th (6.8 yards per pass attempt).

This comparison tells me that the Dolphins should outperform the Bears on offense. At the very least, hang with Chicago's emerging offense.

## Free Pick Conclusion

The Dolphins are a solid team, who are possibly flying under the radar. Versus the Bears in Week 6, they look like a solid play as a 3 point home dog.

Through the analysis of our [free NFL betting system](http://www.onlinewagerreview.com/betting-system/)- I recommend putting a nice size wager on the Dolphins getting points.

- Take the Dolphins +3
- Confidence Medium-High

Good luck!

Bears vs Dolphins, Best NFL Free Picks of Week 6 of 2018

<p>Welcome back NFL football!</p>
<p>Here at OnlineWagerReview we are gettting ready for another successfull NFL betting season. We have just posed our <a href="http://www.onlinewagerreview.com/betting-system/weekly-rankings" target="_self"><strong>Week 1 NFL power rankings</strong></a> &nbsp;to be used with our priopritary NFL betting system.</p>
<p>If you are new to our betting system, don't worry - we have you covered. We will be posting all our entire winning NFL approach to the online site! This is a change from the past. Until recently, you could only purchase our NFL betting sytem in paperback. But - a digital age requires digital solutions.</p>
<h3>Week 1 NFL Free Picks:</h3>
<p>If you are in a rush, go directly and check out our <a href="http://www.onlinewagerreview.com/betting-system/nfl-picks" target="_self">NFL picks for week 1</a> .</p>
<p>These picks are generated by our winning <a href="http://www.onlinewagerreview.com/betting-system" target="_self">NFL betting system</a> . Only OnlineWagerReview offers these priopritary picks.</p>
<p>At the core, OWR's NFL betting system is designed to isolate betting 'value'. We do this through custom algorythims, which idenify key data points, and provide data driven results.</p>
<p>Stay tuned for more - OWR will be posting its entire NFL betting system to the site very soon!</p>

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