Two divisional foes matchup for Week 2 Monday night football showdown.
In this post, we will handicap the game and analyze who the best bet is in tonight's primetime match.
Detriot Lions at Green Bay Packers
Opening Spread: GB -10
Current Spread: GB -12.5
Packers vs Lions Free Pick analysis
As you can see from the spread movement above (opened GB -10, now GB -12.5), serious public money has been placed on the Green Bay Packers to cover the spread. When we see this type of one-sided money flow (from the public)...we "fade" this action, or bet against it. We always lean to bet against the public flow. This is a "contrarian approach" to betting and has proven successful over my history of gambling.
Next, we look to our power rankings to try to determine if there is any "value" in this current spread. Looking at our Week 2 Betting NFL Power Rankings, we see how we graded these teams:
- DET 5 wins
- GB 9 wins
These win estimates allow us to apply the secret formula of our betting system. We match these 2 teams up and determine "our line" should be as follows:
DET +9 GB -9
As you can see, based on our betting system calculations, the Detroit Lions should only be a 9 point underdog.
What does this mean for the bettors?
Simple - if we take DET +12.5 we are getting 2.5 points in value (12.5 actual line - 9 our line).
Key Betting Trends?
We also like to check the betting trends for each matchup. Some carry more weight than others...especially if the teams are in the same conference and matchup 2 times per year. For this matchup, we find a few interesting ones:
- Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings
- Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings
Lions vs Green Bay Free Monday Night Pick
For tonight's matchup, we again see value in the underdog. The Lions might be overmatch talent-wise, but this Monday night matchup between divisional foes might be a tighter outcome than the spread suggests. If you are looking to play the spread on this game...go against the public and go with the current trends. Take the underdog with medium confidence. Good luck
Free pick: Detroit +12.5