For Thursday Night's feature matchup...we find the out-of-division matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Cincinnati Bengals.
Let's do some analysis on this matchup and try to determine if there are any good bets out there. We are always looking for betting value. Can any be found in this matchup? Let's take a look...
Jaguars vs Bengals Current Line and Spread
Opening Spread: CIN -4.5
Current Spread: CIN -7.5
Current Over/Unders: 46
Key Jags vs Bengals stats
If you've been with us a long time (or have read our NFL betting system book) you know that yards per pass attempt are a key statistic that we use in our game/betting analysis.
Short summary - this stat tells us all we need to know. Yards per pass attempt tells us an offense's efficiency. Yards per pass attempt allowed tells us about a team's defensive efficiency. Let's take a look at how these teams stack up against each other:
Yards per pass attempt (offense):
Jaguars: 5.7 (ranked 30th in the league)
Bengals: 8.5 (ranked 8th)
Yard per pass attempt allowed (defense)
Jaguars: 9.0 (ranked 30th)
Bengals: 5.4 (ranked 4th)
Whoa. This is what we call a lop-sided statistical affair. Clearly, we can see that Cinncinati is the much stronger opponent, especially using our key yards per pass attempt statistic.
Jaguars vs Bengals in the betting system
Let's take a look at the betting system outputs. When we compare tonight's matchup, we get the following results:
Jaguars: 4 wins (grade D)
Bengals: 10 wins (grade B-)
When we match these teams against each other, our key proprietary algorithm tells us the line should be:
Bengals (as a home team) -12.5
With us setting the line, we can see that Bengals should be a BIGGER favorite. We usually shy away from betting favorites. But let's keep this in mind...
Jaguars vs Bengals Free NFL pick
Taking all the above into consideration, the Bengals are the better spread play in tonight's match. There is a caveat though. With our betting philosophy, we rarely put our money on favorites. Much less favorites that are laying more than 7 points.
Our recommendation for tonight:
If you want to play the spread - Small bet on Bengals -7.5
Safer bet - Bengals over 27.5 - you can get this -105 on Bovada right now