Welcome to Thursday Night football! Tonight we see the matchup of the Carolina Panthers (2-0) at the Houston Texans (1-1). Here will give your betting analysis and where the best place to invest your money.

### Matchup Details:

- Open: O/U 43.5   CAR -4.5
- Current: O/U 43   CAR -8
- Betting consensus: 52% CAR -8

As we can see from the betting action and line movement, there has been heavy money flow on the Carolina Panthers. We are seeing this with the announcement that Tyrod Taylor won't be available for this matchup...

### Rookie starting QB

Rookie David Mills will start tonight's game. It's his first NFL start. First NFL starts can be rocky. This is why we are seeing the public jump heavy on the favored Panthers. Should we do the same? Let's take a deeper look...

The Houston Coaching staff has stated that Mills has shown many [signs of improvement since his 2 preseason starts](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/texans/2021/09/23/davis-mills-houston-texans-starting-quarterback/5812059001/). I would expect tonight's gameplan to be run-heavy and keep the ball out of the Panthers offense's hands. Mark Ingram / Philip Lindsey combo should see 30+ touches between them. That's a good thing.

### Road teams disadvantage in TNF

It's no secret that playing on the road on Thursday night (on a short week) is not fun or easy. Road teams have a disadvantage. Historically, [home favorites have a big advantage against the spread (ATS)](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/texans/2021/09/23/davis-mills-houston-texans-starting-quarterback/5812059001/). I would lean towards the home team in the matchup too...especially getting +8 or more points.

*Note - this is Carolina's first road game of the season. They have played well at home...but this will be their first test on the road, in a hostile environment.

Another point here - this is a road, out of conference game for the Panthers. They are currently 2-0. It's a tendency here for a team to "not get up" (no have extra motivation) for a non-conference road game vs a "bad" team on paper.

Another great trend...Rookie QBs are 5-1 in Thursday Night football debuts...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Davis Mills gets his first career NFL start tonight as the Texans take on the Panthers.<br><br>Since 2016, quarterbacks making their first career start on Thursday night own a 5-1 record. <a href="https://t.co/fAUU6uh6bV">pic.twitter.com/fAUU6uh6bV</a></p>&mdash; ESPN Stats &amp; Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1441009455416561670?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 23, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

### Betting system tells us...

Now, let's run this matchup through our proprietary betting system. We are setting HOU as a 6 win team (C- grade). Carolina at 8 wins (C grade). With these power rankings, we estimate the line to be HOU -5.5. If we lean towards taking Houston and the points...we are getting some value there.

### Panthers vs Texans free pick summary

I get it. It's difficult to place your hard-earned money on a rookie QB making his first NFL start. But if your going to play the spread in this game...I would lean towards the underdog Texans. Houston has a strong enough running game they can lean on. Plus, Thursday Night road teams have historically struggled. That will play into Texans bettors' hands.

Don't get a 2nd mortgage for this one. Place a 1 unit (small) wager on the underdog Texans and you will be getting value on your investment.

Free pick: **Houston Texans +8.5**

**Alternative in-game play** - Wait to see if Carolina jumps out to an early 7-10 point lead. Try to get the Texans +10.5 or more.

Panthers vs Texans Thursday Night Football, Free NFL Pick 2021

Two divisional foes matchup for Week 2 Monday night football showdown. 

In this post, we will handicap the game and analyze who the best bet is in tonight's primetime match.

## Game Details

[Detriot Lions at Green Bay Packers](https://www.nfl.com/games/lions-at-packers-2021-reg-2) <br />
Opening Spread: GB -10 <br />
Current Spread: GB -12.5 <br />
Over/Under 49 <br />

## Packers vs Lions Free Pick analysis

As you can see from the spread movement above (opened GB -10, now GB -12.5), serious public money has been placed on the Green Bay Packers to cover the spread. When we see this type of one-sided money flow (from the public)...we "fade" this action, or bet against it. We always lean to bet against the public flow. This is a "contrarian approach" to betting and has proven successful over my history of gambling.

Next, we look to our power rankings to try to determine if there is any "value" in this current spread. Looking at our [Week 2 Betting NFL Power Rankings](https://onlinewagerreview.com/blog/6yqk0Y9/week-2-power-rankings--betting-system--nfl-2021), we see how we graded these teams:

- DET 5 wins
- GB 9 wins

These win estimates allow us to apply the secret formula of our betting system. We match these 2 teams up and determine "our line" should be as follows:

DET +9
GB -9

As you can see, based on our betting system calculations, the Detroit Lions should only be a 9 point underdog.

What does this mean for the bettors? 

Simple - if we **take DET +12.5 we are getting 2.5 points in value** (12.5 actual line - 9 our line).

## Key Betting Trends?

We also like to check the betting trends for each matchup. Some carry more weight than others...especially if the teams are in the same conference and matchup 2 times per year. For this matchup, we find a few interesting ones:

- Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings
- Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings

## Lions vs Green Bay Free Monday Night Pick

For tonight's matchup, we again see value in the underdog. The Lions might be overmatch talent-wise, but this Monday night matchup between divisional foes might be a tighter outcome than the spread suggests. If you are looking to play the spread on this game...go against the public and go with the current trends. Take the underdog with medium confidence. Good luck

Free pick: **Detroit +12.5**

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Monday Night Free NFL Pick, 2021

If you are familiar with our NFL betting system, power rankings are a core component of how we set our lines and pick our winners.

Every Wednesday of the NFL season, we will post our official OnlineWagerReview NFL power rankings. As we review the week's matchups, these rankings will be used to calculate which teams we see "value". The games where we see the most value...these are our top bets of the week.

### Week 2 NFL Power Rankings:

<table class="ui table" style="width: 400px">
<thead><tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Team</th><th>Week 2</th></tr></thead><tbody>
 <tr><td>Kansas City Chiefs</td><td>12</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td><td>11</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Arizona Cardinals</td><td>10</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Buffalo Bills</td><td>10</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Dallas Cowboys</td><td>10</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Los Angeles Rams</td><td>10</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Philadelphia Eagles</td><td>10</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Pittsburgh Steelers</td><td>10</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Baltimore Ravens</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Cleveland Browns</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Green Bay Packers</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>New Orleans Saints</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Las Vegas Raiders</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>San Francisco 49ers</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Seattle Seahawks</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Tennessee Titans</td><td>9</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Los Angeles Chargers</td><td>8</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Minnesota Vikings</td><td>8</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Cincinnati Bengals</td><td>8</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Houston Texans</td><td>7</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Indianapolis Colts</td><td>7</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Miami Dolphins</td><td>7</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Denver Broncos</td><td>7</td></tr>
 <tr><td>New England Patriots</td><td>6</td></tr>
 <tr><td>New York Jets</td><td>6</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Washington</td><td>6</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Atlanta Falcons</td><td>5</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Carolina Panthers</td><td>5</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Detroit Lions</td><td>5</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Jacksonville Jaguars</td><td>5</td></tr>
 <tr><td>New York Giants</td><td>5</td></tr>
 <tr><td>Chicago Bears</td><td>5</td></tr>
</tbody></table>

### Ranking Notes:

**Indianapolis Colts** - lousy home loss. Moving down to 7 wins till they show me more

**Los Angeles Rams** - they looked good on paper before the season, they look good on the field now! 10+ wins season is definitely their floor

**New Orleans Saints** - Not a believer. We've seen this from Jamis Winston before. He is error-prone. Look for disappointment here.

**Pittsburg Steelers** - Impressive road victory against a tough Bills team. Watch them closely, they might be a contender this season

### Learn how to use the rankings

If you are not familiar with our betting system, stay tuned. We will be releasing some new tools and features that all you to use our team rankings to find the best NFL bets for each week. And as always, feel free to [contact us](/contactUs) with any questions. Good luck!


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